Update to previous post: I made a typo - City were of course only 1.49, not 1.79, to win. I say 'only' but when my system predicts a 2 goal win, it is spot on 31% of the time (33% if I drop League Two!)
So the Any Unquoted was a nice bonus, though I would have preferred the 3-1 final scoreline. With the Any Unquoted, you're essentially covered for the 2 goals or more scenario, with just the 3-0 to cover.
Over 2.5 goals is probably worth backing in these games. To be honest, I've just been recording the strike rate rather than the prices for these games, but since the strike rate is looking good, I shall add another page to my spreadsheet and track the prices.
I'm also noticing that some teams are more predictable than others. For example in the Premier League over the last 10 matches, the predicted margin for Aston Villa games has been correct 5 times, and within 1 goal three times. At the other extreme, Chelsea have been within 1 goal once, and that's it.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteI stumbled across your blog and found it very interesting and entertaining. I've added your link to my blog and if you'd like you can add mine. Although i'm not a Betfair user, I am a trader of the currency kind. Look forward to reading more..
http://dubaitraderblog.com