I'm predicting easy 3 goal home wins this weekend for Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, but all are short priced at 1.25, 1.19 and 1.30 for the win respectively. The Correct Score 3-0 and Any Unquoted seem to be the best bet for these games. Chelsea 3-0 is 9, AU 4.5. Manchester United 3-0 is 8, AU 3.3. Spurs 3-0 is 9.4, AU 4.3.
Next strongest, I have Aston Villa beating West Ham by 2. Villa are 1.57 which is good value. Shades of last Monday night's game here and a dabble at 2-0, 3-1 and AU for me. 7.6, 16 and 8.8 respectively.
Wolverhampton Wanderers are 2.38 at home to Wigan Athletic, and I have them expected to win by 1. Another value bet. Also by 1, I have Everton v Manchester City. Everton at 3.0 look tasty.
Draws at Portsmouth (3.4 v Birmingham) and Blackburn Rovers (3.3 v Fulham), and an away win for Arsenal (1.6) round out the picks.
No bet in the Stoke City game on account of Liverpool's unpredictability at the moment. For the record, the numbers favour Liverpool by 1, but my confidence in them is zero. Of the last 12 games involving them, just one predicted margin has been correct.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Hey,
ReplyDeleteI really can't see Tottenham putting 4 past Hull.
I myself think that 4.3 in the AU market is a great value lay.
I'd say 2-1 Tottenham.
Jay
www.amanthatlays.blogspot.com