The Indianapolis Colts have just beaten the New York Jets to reach the Superbowl, and a good result for me with the Colts coming close to winning by their expected supremacy of 12 points (they won by 13) and thus comfortably covering the -7.5 handicap.
It's always nice to get the result right, but equally was pleasing was the opportunity provided by Mark Iverson over at Mark Iverson - Professional Sports Trader to chat with other traders as the game unfolded and make calls about the more immediate events in the game.
It was an easy game to trade, no turnovers until late, with the Jets looking good early on taking a 17-6 lead, but the turning point was the final two minutes of the second quarter when the Colts are at their best. The Jets traded in the 1.50s at one point, but as I had hoped, the Colts scored to close within 4 at the half. The Colts have an excellent record of scoring in the last two minutes of the first half, and my comments were for once spot on.
The second half was all Colts, and the half-time price of 1.76 (of which there was an amazing £127k available) looked very generous. My bank isn't quite large enough to allow a bet of that size, even if it was value, but perhaps one day.
Anyway, an interesting idea which I think was enjoyed by the dozen or so people who joined, and hopefully everyone made money and there will be another event covered fairly soon.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Hi Cassini,
ReplyDeleteThanks for the mention mate - glad you enjoyed.
Just looked at the stats and it appears we had 53 'readers' last night. That's a pretty good effort but isn't it surprising on how many don't join in?
Hope to see you for another event soon.
All the best,
Mark
For what it is worth Mark, I only joined in at the end because I didn't feel I had much to add to the discussion until near the end despite being around for the duration.
ReplyDeleteThat was nothing to do with your blog per se but more that I wasn't watching pictures only the gametracker (which you yourself were reading) and therefore had little to comment on.
I do think it is a nice idea as I said before. An interesting paradigm arises in that I would have more to add to a tennis (and to a lesser extent football) and yet less time to participate. I think NFL and again to a lesser extent rugby and cricket offer more time to commentate on the proceedings and will hopefully therefore create a better experience.
Best of luck to both you and Cassini
Curly
Hi Curly,
ReplyDeleteYour comments were very much appreciated anyway. It's difficult to trade and discuss at the same time and some sports lend themselves more easily to it than others.
All the best,
Mark