Red Rose Value

Two value selections today in the Premier League. Blackburn Rovers are value at 2.03 to beat Wigan Athletic at home tonight.

For my reader who wants numbers and an explanation, Blackburn’s Elo rating is currently 948 and Wigan’s 921. After taking into account home advantage, the result needed to keep these numbers close to their current values is a 1 goal win by Blackburn.

Typically when the ratings predict a one goal home win, the price is a lot shorter – for example yesterday Tottenham were 1.68 to beat Fulham, so anything above evens is excellent value.

Also value is Everton at home to Sunderland. Everton’s supremacy is 2 goals and 1.7 is a great price.

For the record, Chelsea’s supremacy over Birmingham City should be 3, and Aston Villa v Arsenal is predicted to be a draw.

Worth a mention perhaps is that Crystal Palace’s odds for relegation plummeted from 19.5 down to a low of 2.96 yesterday, before settling in at 3.5. A nice play if you have inside information.