This weekend’s Elo ratings at the top of the English pyramid have Manchester United to win by 3 over Portsmouth, but at 1.14 this is a play on the Correct Score market. 3-0 or Any Unquoted.
To win by two are Chelsea at 1.87 and Nottingham Forest at 1.63.
Winners at home by one should be Burnley (2.68), Liverpool (1.9), Stoke City (2.4), Sunderland (2.14), Tottenham Hotspur (2.22), Birmingham City (1.87), Swansea (1.95), Barnsley (2.15), Blackpool (2.32), Bristol City (2.01) and Sheffield United (1.85).
Winners away by one: Manchester City (1.78) and West Bromwich Albion (1.87).
The other games at Newcastle United, Bolton Wanderers, Ipswich Town, Peterborough United, Scunthorpe United and Doncaster Rovers are predicted to be draws.
It’s interesting that the one goal selections range in price from 1.78 to 2.68. My numbers suggest that the Manchester City price is on the short side, but all the others are value. Chelsea at 1.87 are also excellent value to win.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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