A small profit on the day, with Bury winning by the one goal, and perhaps slightly unlucky we didn't make more. Torquay snatched a late draw at Rotherham scoring in the 85' taking away a winner.
In Germany, Moechengladbach were given a penalty for a handball outside the area, that enabled them to snatch a 2-2 draw. Was this good or bad? I posted that the expectation was a 1 goal home win, but with these selections winning at just 44%, the value when the price is 1.94 is clearly in laying but until I have more data, it's tough to bring myself to back against a system that performs well elsewhere.
Talkbet has stats which go back longer than mine, and he backs up my observation that form is less reliable in the Bundesliga than in other leagues. Perhaps I don't need to understand why this is, but just accept it, and use the predictions in a different way. Back the underdog!
A busy day tomorrow, the first since catching up with the European League ratings, and the top teams expected to win by 2 are Borussia Dortmund (1.47), Hamburg (1.57), Deportivo La Coruna (1.56), Barcelona (1.21) and Internazionale (1.56). These selections win at 66% overall, so anything around 1.5 is value, although obviously there are those teams such as Barcelona which are hardly typical.
Some other observations are Genoa (1.96), Boulogne (2.56) and Mallorca (2.6) all favoured to win by 1, and plenty of draws in France with this result expected in the matches at Grenoble, Lens, Nice, Saint Etienne and Paris St Germain.
Boulogne and Mallorca both look excellent value.
Slight point of order but it was Hoffenheim given the late pen to snatch a 2-2 draw, Moechengladbach were 1-2 up at the time.
ReplyDeleteI'm not some weird stato who can recite every stat from every league around the world, its just that the missus was out last night so I had free reign of the remote, the best I could find was Hoffenheim v Moechengladbach on ESPN :o)
I know the late pen was Hoffenheim's but the first pen to Moenchengladbach was outside the area and even if it was earlier in the game, it still contributed to the draw...
ReplyDeleteAh sorry, saw the snatch a draw comment and thought you meant they were the ones with the late pen.
ReplyDeleteIt was a poorly chosen phrase that I used...
ReplyDelete