Schalke 04 to beat rivals Borussia Dortmund by 1 tonight in the Bundesliga, with the Southend United v Charlton Athletic game expected to be a draw.
Unfortunately for me, Southend’s price is close to the draw price, and most unprofessionally, I have accidentally backed Southend! I know the outcome here – I lay the bet back and Southend go on to win with a late goal.
In the Premier League this weekend, I have three teams expected to win by 2 goals; Birmingham City v Wigan Athletic, Chelsea v Manchester City and Liverpool v Blackburn Rovers. The Elo two goal favourites in the Premier League win by two 43% of the time.
Burnley should win by 1 at home to Portsmouth, with draws at Bolton Wanderers, Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur. Draws are currently hitting at no less than 47%.
The sole away win is predicted to be Arsenal at Stoke City.
The Old Firm game sees Rangers favoured by 2.
Have I considered using my ratings for trading? Well yes, but I’ve decided against it. While it’s nice to get a goal up and lock in some green, I do feel that I should let the bet run unless I have good reason to think that the lay price is value. The luck tends to even itself out here, and I’m not kidding myself in thinking that I can find value in-play in a football match which is being actively traded by thousands of people. At least pre-game, I’m in with a fair chance.
What is the point in these 'ratings'? In over 80% of matches the winning margin is two goals or fewer. So you will be right most of the time even if you say those things at random.
ReplyDeleteI think your right about not using your ratings i/r. If the prices are wrong at kick-off then this will generally carry over i/r, then your dealing with factors which are much harder to factor into ratings.
ReplyDeleteThis could be an interesting debate about IR..
ReplyDeleteFor example, in your ratings you have chelsea as comfortable winners by two goals v man city.
What if, chelsea fell behind in that game early on, you would then get odds of 2.20 at least on chelsea to win this game.
Wouldnt that be extra value?
Hey Cassini I wanted to ask your thoughts on this sevice I stumbled across recently, It's a statistical betting service for football (mainly handicaps) called Star Lizard.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.starlizard.com/
It appreas they use rating systems in conjunction with other statistical analysis to accurately predict results, and provide profitable betting for their clients.
This reminded me of your Elo ratings, particualrly the goal differences and handicaps.
You might just be onto a winner here ;)