Another winner for the Elo ratings today with Sunderland and Stoke City finishing all-square. Predicted draws in the Premier League are hitting at 39% which is well in profit.
Tomorrow's game is forecast a three goal win for Chelsea. Hull City are currently the lowest rated team in the Premier League at 735, and Chelsea are the highest on 2615 and the 1.3 available reflects that.
Most of the Correct Score money is on Chelsea winning 2-0, so perhaps the value is on 3-0 at 9.2 or Any Unquoted at 4.8. (The latter covers you in the event that Hull should win 4-0...)
Another idea suggested by my financial advisor son is to play these win expectancies in the Asian Handicap markets. Although liquidity is a bit thin, it is possible to back Chelsea -1.5 at 1.86 right now on BETDAQ. That seems like a value play. For the bolder investor, there's also a Chelsea (-1.5/2) market (rather thin again) with Chelsea priced at 2.09.
Meanwhile, the work has begun on incorporating the other strongest leagues in Europe but apparently it'll take me a while. Serie A is the first one to be added, and I started last night but got distracted reading about Messina's demise which I had somehow missed!
Wikipedia is great, but I start following the links and get completely wrapped up in interesting, but useless, facts about things I never knew existed five minutes previously.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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