I lost some money the other night when the Los Angeles Dodgers lost to the San Francisco Giants 5-7 in the ninth inning after leading 5-1 in the third, but the numbers don't tell the whole story.
The Dodgers were favourites at 1.82, a price that caught my eye because Tim Lincecum, who you may recall cost me a four figure sum back in April, was the starting pitcher, and the Giants were underdogs for the first time this season with him starting. The smart money* was on the Dodgers in other words.
Leading 5-4 in the seventh, the Dodgers starter Kershaw hit Giants batter Aaron Rowand with a pitch, and was ejected, along with Dodger manager Joe Torre who came out to complain about the ejection. Torre's ejection turned out to be crucial.
In the ninth inning, hitting coach Don Mattingly, who had taken over from the experienced Joe Torre, went out to talk to the Dodgers 'ace' closer Broxton. After a short chat, Mattingly headed back to the dugout but as he took two steps off the mound, he turned around which is where the 8.06 rule came in.
According to Rule 8.06, "a visit to the mound is over after a manager or coach steps off the dirt", so when Mattingly turned back around, per the rules he was officially making a second visit which meant a mandatory pitching change once the Giants manager complained.
The Giants went on to score three runs in the inning against the replacement pitcher, and won the game 7-5. Fertiliser happens, as legendary Vin Scully would say.
Smart Money* -
When the line moves in the opposite direction of the public betting trends, a Smart Money pick is triggered. This is a sure sign that a pro betting syndicate has placed a large wager on that team.
(London)
ReplyDeleteYour definition of smart money doesn't necessarily tally with what you said about the Giants price. That said, there are missing details you will know which I don't (I have no interest in baseball) which could help justify your musings to some extent.
a) you make no mention of any price move, just one price. It could have been the opening price and the SP for all your average reader will know.
b) the fact they are underdogs for the first time with him starting doesn't (necessarily) mean anything. It's very much schedule and venue dependent. e.g. All his previous starts may have been home games. Or his previous starts may have been against the very worst teams in the league - I have no idea.
c) you also make no mention of the sample size. You will know how many times he's started but your post doesn't say if it's 3 times or 20 times.
Finaly, smart Money can be in the same direction as public money. The public aren't always wrong. It is sometimes more about the size of the price move - and indeed the timing of it.
NB I'm guessing the definition isn't your own but, whoever's it is, it's certainly not an all encompassing definition. I do think you may have used it in the wrong context with this particular match though unless all the missing details stack up correctly.
I see, the Dodgers take commission 5%, too, for their tickets... Well, they say "State tax", but its meaning is the same. ;-)
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