My Premier League Elo ratings have Chelsea out in front, followed by Manchester United in a two horse race, with Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur making up the top seven. In the betting markets, the big difference is that Manchester City are rated third, for obvious reasons. The Elo ratings are objective; the betting markets are subjective, but after a few games, if City live up to their billing, the ratings will adjust. The markets also have Tottenham ahead of Everton, but otherwise the correlation is close. It usually is at the top.
The relegation markets are more of a challenge, not least because while teams at the top were all there last season, half of the teams expected to struggle were playing Championship football three months ago, and their ratings are a guesstimate at best.
For what it's worth, my bottom six teams, lowest rated first, are Wigan Athletic, Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion, Bolton Wanderers, West Ham United and Newcastle United.
The markets have a different perception, with Blackpool clear favourites at 1.3. Next are yo-yo team WBA at around evens, followed by Wigan at 3.2 and Wolves at 3.5. Then come Newcastle, West Ham and Bolton.
Based purely on the ratings, Wigan at 3.2 would appear to be good value, but their points total is negatively impacted by competing in the Premier League last season and a direct comparison with the promoted teams is not possible. The other thing that jumps out is that while I have Wolves ranked 13th, this is not close to the opinion of the markets.
The 25 player limit will no doubt mean a number of players will change teams before the season begins. Manchester City currently have 37 players on their books, while poor old Blackpool have just 17.
Newcastle at 4.5 are an interesting case. As has been commented on elsewhere, their problems from two years ago may have been overlooked as they returned to the Premier League, but the unpopular Mike Ashley is still there, reluctant to spend any money, well, former Port Vale defender Sulzeer Campbell excepted, and a weak start could well see the club have another poor season.
Will all three relegated clubs come from the seven mentioned? The market rules on Betfair have an interesting addition to previous seasons:
The relegation markets are more of a challenge, not least because while teams at the top were all there last season, half of the teams expected to struggle were playing Championship football three months ago, and their ratings are a guesstimate at best.
For what it's worth, my bottom six teams, lowest rated first, are Wigan Athletic, Blackpool, West Bromwich Albion, Bolton Wanderers, West Ham United and Newcastle United.
The markets have a different perception, with Blackpool clear favourites at 1.3. Next are yo-yo team WBA at around evens, followed by Wigan at 3.2 and Wolves at 3.5. Then come Newcastle, West Ham and Bolton.
Based purely on the ratings, Wigan at 3.2 would appear to be good value, but their points total is negatively impacted by competing in the Premier League last season and a direct comparison with the promoted teams is not possible. The other thing that jumps out is that while I have Wolves ranked 13th, this is not close to the opinion of the markets.
The 25 player limit will no doubt mean a number of players will change teams before the season begins. Manchester City currently have 37 players on their books, while poor old Blackpool have just 17.
Newcastle at 4.5 are an interesting case. As has been commented on elsewhere, their problems from two years ago may have been overlooked as they returned to the Premier League, but the unpopular Mike Ashley is still there, reluctant to spend any money, well, former Port Vale defender Sulzeer Campbell excepted, and a weak start could well see the club have another poor season.
Will all three relegated clubs come from the seven mentioned? The market rules on Betfair have an interesting addition to previous seasons:
IF A LISTED TEAM IS DISQUALIFIED, THROWN OUT OR OTHERWISE REMOVED FROM THIS LEAGUE AFTER THE RELEVANT SEASON HAS STARTED, THEY WILL BE DEEMED TO BE RELEGATED AND SETTLED AS A WINNER IN THIS MARKET. HOWEVER, IF THE NUMBER OF TEAMS RELEGATED IS LESS THAN OR EXCEEDS THE NUMBER OF WINNERS SET OUT IN THIS MARKET, THE MARKET WILL BE VOID IN ENTIRETY.
No comments:
Post a Comment