I found time to go back a few more seasons in Germany, and they are rather remarkably consistent. I have to admit that when I decided to dig into the numbers, I rather thought that some of my gut instincts might turn out to be wrong in the longer term, but I am encouraged by my first thought which is that laying odds on favourites in Germany is a low-risk profitable strategy.
Bearing in mind that the numbers err on the side of caution, laying odds-on favourites in Germany would have been profitable every season from 2006-07. Some may consider four years not to be enough, but football, and the betting markets, change over the years, and there's a limit to how much data is actually useful. Four seasons seems reasonable, with a total of 1,224 matches reviewed.
Having I'll take a look at the French leagues next, before checking to see how backing the favourites would have played out in serie A and La Liga over previous seasons. If nothing else, it keeps me out of trouble.
So to this weekend, where Internazionale look a very good bet on the Asian Handicap -1/1.5 at 2.03 v Udinese. Last season Udinese were very poor away from home. I have draws at Cagliari, Juventus and Lecce.
In the Bundesliga, strong home teams Borussia Moenchengladbach and Mainz are the picks to cover -0.5 handicaps. Moenchengladbach are 2.19 while Mainz are 2.34
In Spain, Barcelona are just 1.07 v Hercules! Not sure I have seen a league price so short before.
The NFL started yesterday, and my Elo ratings had the New Orleans Saints as 7.63 favourites over the Minnesota Vikings. They won 14-9 for a good start to the season.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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