The ratings predict two strong draws, two weak draws, and six bankers in the EPL this weekend. The strong draws are Bolton Wanderers v Liverpool on Sunday, and Blackpool v West Bromwich Albion on Monday. The other major leagues all have just one strong draw each; in Germany Koln v Hamburg, en France Monaco v Bordeaux, in Serie A Brescia v Napoli and in La Liga it's Deportivo La Coruna v Espanyol.
The ratings have the following as value: Malaga (3.75) v Real Sociedad, Wolfsburg (2.25) v Stuttgart, Brest (2.7) v St Etienne, Auxerre (2.0) v Nice, Palermo (2.4) v Lazio, Catania (2.8) v Fiorentina and Aston Villa (1.88) v Birmingham City.
The NBA continues in pleasing fashion. My main focus is on trading the match odds market, but I play the handicap and over/under markets pre-game where I perceive value. The total points are 3-2 at the moment, which is nothing to get excited about, but the handicaps are currently 8-2.
I got a bit lucky on the World Series last night. The Over 6.5 runs bet did not look good with just 2 runs on the board heading to the bottom of the eighth inning, but the Giants hit 7 more to seal the game and take the total over. They've also taken a 2-0 lead in the series, and historically such teams win the World Series 78.4% of the time (1.28). I'm on at 1.43. After being one of the lower scoring teams of the year, the Giants have certainly chosen the right time to get hot with the bats.
What would you make the "true" price of these strong draws? And how have you worked it out?
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