As I promised a dew days ago, I spent some time looking at the results of backing the draw in the English Premier League last season. Blindly backing every game to be a draw would have returned (after 5% commission) 43.7 points, and ROI of 11.5%.
When I looked at the results based on the teams gradings (A to D), for games between teams of the same grade, the results were 29.21 points with an ROI of 33.97%. For the record, these were the gradings assigned at the start of last season:
A. Big 4 (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United)
B. Europa (Aston Villa, Everton, Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur)
C. Middlers (Blackburn, Bolton Wanderers, Fulham, Sunderland, West Ham, Wigan)
D. Strugglers (Birmingham City, Burnley, Hull City, Portsmouth, Stoke City, Wolves)
I have used the average draw prices from ten bookmakers so with a little shopping around, these returns could easily be bettered.
Backing the draw when the home team is in a higher group isn't a profitable strategy with an ROI of -8.12%, suggesting that the draw is not value in this class of match.
For this season my groups are:
A. Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United
B. Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur
C. Birmingham, Blackburn, Bolton Wanderers, Fulham, Stoke City, Sunderland
D. Blackpool, Newcastle United, West Bromwich Albion, West Ham, Wigan, Wolves
33.8%* of EPL games finished drawn last season, higher than the long-term average, and as time permits I'll take a look at previous seasons and other leagues.
* Correction: The percentage of drawn games last season was 25.26%, very slightly below the ten year average of 25.8% which makes the results even more promising.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
I can;t remember now, but was there an unusual number of draws (or was it lack of draws) at the start of the Premier league season last year?
ReplyDeleteInteresting theory that mate.
ReplyDeleteYou'd obviously need to consider that the market makers use the same stats to settle the price.
I'm not insulting your intelligence there, just for any noobs who happen to pop in to your blog.
The grouping thing is a nice idea and may help it prove profitable.
I do feel however that blindly backing long term would result in a net loss due to available odds and commission factors.
Good luck with this though
Are the figures from http://www.football-data.co.uk ?
ReplyDeleteI don't get a profit from backing every draw in the English Prem 2009/2010 using the average draw price of the 10 bookies listed.
I'm not doubting you -- I'm sure it's something up with my calcs. If I use the HT results I get a hefty profit but about a 30 pt loss using the FT results...
Apologies if I have been immensely stupid here.