Reds In October Hunt

The regular baseball season comes to a close this weekend with the play-off teams all but decided across the leagues. In the American League, the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers are through, and in the National League it is the Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, and most likely the San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves. The San Diego Padres do have a slim chance, but need to win a couple of games in San Francisco, and hope the cruising Phillies sweep the Braves. Unlikely.

The play-offs begin on Wednesday, continue through the whole month of October, maybe into November, and were quite lucrative last season. However, liquidity has been poor all season, and I'm not confident that'll change significantly in the play-offs.

Ah well, at least the NBA is on the way back, less than a month to go there. The pace and the gentler swings make this my favourite trading sport by far. Although the basic strategy of lay low is profitable in many sports, in the American sports Baseball is too slow, while the NFL can be brutal, with game-changing interceptions and flags away from the play making for some heart-stopping action. Basketball though has steady, but low, scoring, making for the perfect, to my mind at least, trading vehicle.

I wasn't home in time for the Football Elite e-mail for this weekend, and was a little dismayed that one of the short-list selections was in the German Friday Night game between Hannover and St Pauli. When I checked the result though, it wasn't such a bad thing, as St Pauli won 1-0 to go 6th, their third away win in four games.

Just seven 'strong' draws in the top leagues this weekend, and a couple of value looking home winners in Spain; Sevilla (2.26) v Atletico Madrid and Getafe (2.16) v Hercules on Sunday. I have Sevilla at -1, and Getafe at -0.75. Also giving .75 I have Mainz '05 in Germany who are generously priced at 2.34. For aways, Auxerre (2.1) @ Arles-Avignon look the best value, with Wolfsburg (2.2) at Borussia Moenchengladbach close behind.

For the big London derby, the raw ratings have a strong draw, although QPR edge it once form is taken into account...