Still very busy with work, and it's only today that I've been able to find time to catch up the ratings. I've not looked at the projected results beyond Saturday yet, but for today and tomorrow the following are rated strong draws - Bolton Wanderers v Tottenham Hotspur, SC Freiburg v Mainz '05, Arles v Caen and Sochaux v Auxerre. Strong draws in the major leagues are striking at 39% for the season.
The best value home winners appear to be Birmingham City (2.02) v West Ham United, Blackburn Rovers (1.85) v Wigan Athletic, Bologna (2.0) v Lecce, Rennes (2.84) v Lyon, Real Sociedad (2.2) v Racing Santander and Nuremberg (2.06) v Koln.
Big wins are expected for Manchester United (-4) and Internazionale (-3) but at 1.25 and 1.29 respectively, the Asian Handicaps would be my preference here. Man U (1.9) and Inter (2.02) both -1.5 on BETDAQ look good to me. Why are the AH markets so thin on Betfair?
I'll look at Sunday's games later.
The new NBA season started well for me, but the last two nights have been disappointing, leaving me only slightly ahead for the season. Not as bad as the SBP though. He has started the NBA season in the same awful form as all his other sports. The Denver Nuggets -3.5 were his first selection on Wednesday (lost by 1), and last night he went for the Chicago Bulls giving 6.5. Both teams not only failed to cover the spread, but failed to even win, so he was 4 points off in the first game and a whopping 15 points out of the money on the second. But with his staking plan we'll be well ahead when game three is a winner. Someone should tell him that the only true measure of a system is the return from level stakes.
Enjoy the fireworks, and if you've never experienced a Sussex Society Bonfire night, get down there! Lewes is of course the biggest and best, but I have great memories of fireworks nights down in Battle in the 1980s. http://www.battelbonfire.co.uk/
AH markets are thin because 5% commission doesn't work with asian handicaps. The betdaq liquidity is mostly false and put up by a bot anyway.
ReplyDeleteThe liquid AH markets are at pinnacle, sbobet and 188bet.
I'll be following your picks on the weekend. All the best.
ReplyDeleteThe 39% strike rate for the strong draws - what's the sample size?
ReplyDeleteThanks
MU -4? Are you on drugs?
ReplyDeleteOpen up an SBO / 188 account if you're going to bet the Asians. Very slim margins hence Betfair have failed to crack one of the largest betting markets in the world.
"the only true measure of a system is the return from level stakes."
ReplyDelete??