Toulose To Lose

A cool post from Trading Times yesterday, taking a trip down memory lane with his radio and the Ashes. Reminded me of hiding under the blankets with my first transistor radio, although listening to music or football rather than cricket. 

The football match that I remember most vividly was the 1968 European Cup Final – Manchester United v Benfica at Wembley, and I had a 6d bet on Benfica with a Fulham supporting friend from school, which of course was a loser. And 6d at that time was a lot of money – a week’s pocket money in fact. 

I did get my own back less than a year later when Crystal Palace beat his Fulham 3-2 to reach the Promised Land of the First Division for the first time in their history and help condemn Fulham to a second successive relegation.

So moving on 40 years, and we have another full weekend of football ahead, all building up to the highlight on Monday night, and I don’t mean Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool, but El Clásico.

There are a few ‘strong’ draws, which are Kaiserslautern v Schalke ’04, Koln v Wolfsburg, Sampdoria v AC Milan and Real Zaragoza v Villareal. Weaker draws are Aston Villa v Arsenal, Stoke City v Manchester City, Wolves v Sunderland and Bordeaux v Lille.

Home value picks are a little harder to find this week. The odds and my ratings are remarkably close this week, but the following offer an edge per my ratings.

EPL: Bolton Wanderers (1.61) v Blackpool, Everton (1.65) v West Bromwich Albion and Tottenham Hotspur (2.12) v Liverpool.

France: Auxerre (2.12) v Toulouse. Brest again show up on the radar, this time at 2.1 v Lens, but after being bitten twice by them, I won’t be betting the farm on this one. Monaco (2.06) v Nice and Olympique Lyonnais (2.12) v Paris Saint-Germain are two more from Le Ligue.

Germany: Hoffenheim look value at 3.5 v Bayer Leverkusen, who can be layed at 2.24.

Italy: Bari (2.02) v Cesena, Juventus (1.71) v Fiorentina and Cagliari (1.7) v Lecce.

Spain: Mallorca (1.78) v Malaga and Gijon (2.18) v Real Santander. For the big game, I have Barcelona a little short at the current 2.16, while the draw looks value at 3.75.