A few weeks ago, I had an e-mail from SG asking, rather flatteringly, for some advice, and I was happy to oblige. Despite this, he has come up with a 'back-the-draw' system which has found 10 winners from 16 selections in the Premier League. Not a large sample by any means, but an impressive strike rate for such bets, and I thought it might be interesting to post his picks alongside mine as I try to surpass Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster strike rate.
My strong draws are Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea and Newcastle United v Liverpool. (If Newcastle's new manager was a little more 'dynamic' I'd be tempted to leave this game alone, but the Pardew factor is not exactly earth-shattering). Weaker draws are Fulham v Sunderland, West Ham United v Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Birmingham City.
In Serie A, the strong draw is Lecce v Chievo Verona with Genoa v Napoli a weaker proposition.
Ligue 1 has Valenciennes v Paris St Germain as a strong draw, while Caen v Nice and Nancy v Sochaux are weak.
La Liga just the one weak draw - Getafe v Villareal, while in the wacky Bundesliga I have more weak ones in Hannover '96 v Stuttgart, Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt, Hamburg v Bayer Leverkusen and Kaiserslautern v Wolfsburg.
Home value picks: Mainz '05 look to be value at 2.7 versus Schalke '04 as do Brest (2.48) v Montpellier; Lorient (2.0) v Lens; Udinese (2.18) v Fiorentina; Cagliari (2.16) v Catania; Aston Villa (2.24) v West Bromwich Albion; Manchester United (2.06) v Arsenal.
Still no PC back, and I have another of those IT migration weekends ahead of me with my presence in the office required and my schedule all discombobulated, so I'm not sure how much trading there will be. Can't complain though. Well, I can, but not a good idea if I want a bonus this year!
Here are SG's Picks: Draw - Bolton v Blackburn (3.45 - Strike Rate 62% / Yield 129%)
Home Lays - Stoke City (1.67 - 61% Strike rate / Yield 95%)
Away Lays - West Brom (3.65) / Liverpool (2.12)(may miss this one due to current manager situation) / Birmingham (3.3) (84% Strike rate / Yield 57%)
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Always interesting to see what fellow punters are going for this weekend. Here's what I'm on (cue really bad weekend once you post up predictions!)
ReplyDeleteTOP SELECTIONS (10 points)
Hannover @ 2.50
Freiburg @ 1.95
NAC Breda @ 2.50
Mallorca @ 1.75
RECOMMENDED BETS (5 points)
Hercules @ 2.20
Udinese @ 2.20
Lorient @ 1.91
Kaiserslauten @ 2.50
Brest @ 2.50
Bologna (DOUBLE CHANCE) @ 2.38
Mechelen (DRAW NO BET) @ 2.00
Tottenham (DRAW NO BET) @ 2.10
I do think Mainz look quite tempting at 2.70 on initial viewing but Schalke are beginning to find some good form. They are coming into the match on the back of a 2-0 league win against Bayern Munich, and an impressive 2-1 victory at Benfica midweek. On paper they have one of the best sides in the league and are starting to show it, although league away form is their final hurdle to a full revival. Mainz have been stuttering after a fabulous start so I'm not sure that 2.70 isn't a fair price (but that's the beauty of sports, it's all about opinions and cue a 4-0 win for Mainz!).
I also think Villa are playing woefully at the moment and don't see much value at 2.24. West Brom are not the worst side on the road and are playing with a bit of confidence again after 2 wins on the bounce. Villa have won 1 in the last 10 which was a streaky win against Blackpool Reserves a few weeks back. They also seem to be prone to drawing a lot home so I'd probably lay Villa if anything (again cue Villa 7 West Brom 0!)
Anyway, good luck with your weekend selections. I hope it's winners all round. :-)