Conservative Betting

The weekend football investments finished up with another late goal, this one going against me as it took away a winner in Stoke City. The home 'value' picks were anything but this weekend, with three of the four picks drawing and one (Hoffenheim) losing, but fortunately I found three more draws from the four strong draw picks - Arles-Avignon v Brest at 3.2 and Racing Santander v Villareal at 3.45 and Kaiserslautern v Hamburg at 3.6. I've added another filter which is off to a good start. My draws eclipsed Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster tips as he went 0 for 3.

Football Elite had just the one pick this week, and that was also a winner at 2.44 as Cagliari beat Lazio 1-0. I think I'll leave the 'home value' picks in Matt's capable hands while I focus on my draws. Backing the draw may not be exciting, but if you're serious about making money from trading, excitement shouldn't be something you look for. Sadly for some, it's a high that some people find hard to handle.

I've gone back and forth on whether or not to post the following, but it seems to me a cautionary tale of how some of us know the rules to follow to be successful, yet are unable to resist the thrill of a gamble. It may help someone, but probably not, as the type of person it could help is not the type of person who would want, or accept the advice. To put it bluntly, to my mind anyway, this person is not someone equipped with the attributes required to be a long-term winner. It's also a cautionary lesson on being careful what you write in the digital age, because it stays around for a long time as I was reading just the other day.

So here's a post from the Betfair Forum written on 11.June.2007:

I am on the verge of increasing my bank to 2,000. Am I teetering on pro shores?

Considering this has been my full time job these past few months, I feel it's about time I give this a serious shot.

What is the size of bank needed to earn the average wage in your opinion?

My aim is a simple one.

Is to try and earn as much as I can per day by taking as little risks as possible. No set target. It's going to take patience, monumental discipline, time and the will to not get carried away with potential boredom. I have done this with success for a month before, only to lose discipline after a month by venturing back into the gambling world again - betting on the dreaded over 2.5 goals bets, to name but one

Severely lowering the gambling aspect is the way forward for me. I know this because when I lose it's because of greed and reaching for excitement levels that conservative betting doesn't bring.

*Greed

*Discipline

*Boredom

3 big factors that have lead me to the poor house many times in the past.

When I revert back to betting on 1.08 odds (for example) when my head is telling me the certain event is more or less over, I do well again. It's low excitement betting but given me results. It's only when I get greedy, become bored and start taking chances again, it all goes wrong.

Gambling is fine if that is your aim. But you cannot earn a living from gambling, I know that much for certain. We all know you have to have some plan in order to try and do this. It's not feasible for me to gamble to try and earn a living. Trading also involves gambling. My aim is to eliminate risks.

Getting past the 3 words above is the key to mine and many peoples success on here. Easier said then done for many, I know.

The post attracted a lot of comment, mostly cautionary, and it's interesting that almost four years later they were to be proven right. The author of the original post wrote this earlier this month:

Basically, I've messed up big style. I have won consistently on Betfair in the past, making around 27k in total from February to September last year and was even lucky enough to go to Flushing Meadows in New York and Wimbledon for the tennis, but in the last month it has gone very wrong because I have taken far too many risks. And because of this I have lost my bank and now have no funds left to work with. :-(

I am writing this to ask if anyone out there would be so kind as to lend me some funds to start again so I can build it up slowly into the numbers I made last year. I am very confident, and if you could do this, I will not only pay you back, but I will give you a massive slice of any profit I make in future on Betfair - which I expect to do.

I know this is asking a lot as you do not know me, but I will totally make it worth your while in future if anyone could do this.

If anyone wishes to invest, for a small commission I can make the arrangements, but I suspect that an ad. titled "Successful Gambler Seeks Money" is unlikely to attract too many investors.

Having been used to playing with thousands, I somehow doubt that the reality of playing with a much smaller bank will provide the thrill that appears to override the desire to be profitable. Making money from sports is not, or shouldn't be, a high, any more than going to work is a high (unless you're a professional stuntman I guess). Sports investing should be about as exciting as financial investing, and while short-term fluctuations as a percentage of a small starting bank can be relatively huge, but as your bank reaches bigger numbers, most people find their profits are not scalable and need to be realistic about their expectations.