Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster picks this past weekend went 0/3 (he dipped into League One with no EPL matches on the schedule) as Bournemouth v Southampton, Colchester v MK Dons and Rochdale v Exeter all ended as away wins. His strike rate on these selections is still an impressive 34.83%, which is slightly ahead of my 'strong draws' at 33.59%.
I mentioned before that I would be reducing stakes on Football Elite's selections as they tend to be weaker as we hit March and April time - football's silly season - and that decision has paid off already this weekend.
Getafe v Athletic Bilbao tonight is a weak draw pick. In La Liga, these are hitting at 36.67%, although across all five Major Leagues the rate is a less impressive, though still profitable, 31.49%. If the game is tied at 80' though, with the way my luck is running, a lay of the current correct score might be a smart play!
As much as I bemoan the irritation of late goals robbing me of rightful winners, I do still think that (selectively of course) backing the draw offers value. The more people who buy into the Lay The Draw system the better, but these people aren't really laying the draw as a result - they are simply hoping for a goal and a trading profit. Who lays the draw as a result? It's really saying "Well, I think someone will win, but I don't know who" which makes no sense to me.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
I thought that and actually started laying the draw with the intention of trading out before the games started. My logic was that with the lay the draw system being so popular that the odds would drift before the game started. Not a hope, constantly got nailed and lost consistently (not huge amounts but significant to me).
ReplyDelete