One Foot On The Beach

A good call from Sports Trading Life among others, who suggested that Chelsea were very short at 1.34 to win a game that they had no need to win, with the tie essentially a done deal and Chelsea 1.01 To Qualify. The motivation of teams is a key factor. Ideally the match is one both teams will be striving to win, but plenty of games, especially at this stage of the season, see matches where the result is irrelevant to one or both teams.

It's a problem that other sports suffer from as well. Teams have achieved their objective, be it a championship, promotion, European qualification, play-off qualification, avoiding relegation, or whatever, and want to rest players, try out new players or, in the case of some sports, actually lose to improve their chances of a high draft pick.

It's the time of year when the draw may trade at 1.5 pre-game in some leagues, and it's accepted as I wrote at the end of last year:

When a draw suits both teams in Italy, the game will end in a draw. It's all to do with the mentality of the Italian people. They see nothing wrong in such an arrangement.

That quote coming from Liam Brady. The bottom line is "punter beware" - caveat emptor as we say in Roma.