Mixed results this weekend. The Strong Draw system (I really must find a catchier name for next season) went 1 for 5, showing a loss on the weekend of 1.6 points, with the ROI in 2011 now at 13.57%, while the EPL Value spreadsheet had a poor Saturday but a great Sunday, finding winners today in lays of Arsenal and Chelsea, as well as backs of Fulham and Wigan Athletic at prices of 3.38, 4.7, 3.6 and 2.26 respectively.
Overall on the weekend, the Match Odds returned a profit of 8.18 points from 8 selections, while the Under / Over selections were up slightly, by 0.03 points with two winners from four selections.
It's hard to get too excited about results from games at this time of year given that matches are not necessarily being contested as they would have been earlier in the season, but the results are promising.
Perhaps a little fortunate today with late goals from Olympique Marseille, Newcastle United and Wigan Athletic, but it feels like I am owed a few of those.
A good weekend too for laying the EPL favourites, with only Wigan Athletic victorious out of nine selections, and odds-on non-winners in Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
nice post!
ReplyDeleteHello, long-time reader first-time commenter here.
ReplyDeleteYou mentioned in an earlier post that you have configured your Elo spreadsheet so that it can give you a goal expectation for each team in a forthcoming game. I maintain Elo ratings myself for a few leagues, and was wondering how you managed this. I don't expect you necessarily to reveal your workings and endanger your edge, but would you be able at all to point me at least in the right direction?
Many thanks if so. Keep up the good work with the blog -- I particularly appreciate your more-than-P-and-L approach to posts.