Switching Horses

The last post addressed the issue of how to handle matches where winning for one or both teams isn't important. Peter has decided to end the season for his MLB Daily Picks, a system that has been hugely successful this season, but which over the past few weeks has struggled, in my opinion at least in part because of the inclusion of teams with little to play for. 

22.5 points profit is a good return on the season, although Peter is clearly disappointed after topping 46 points in early August. Only natural perhaps, but as a glass half full type of guy, I see 22.5 points won and a lesson learned to pull the plug on dis-incentivised teams sooner. P made a comment on a topic which I should have covered in my original reply. (It was in my mind at one point, but my mind wandered). He writes:

Further to this discussion, it seems that based on your experience you concur that laying the short-priced home favourite from August onward is conceptually problematic for the reasons you have explained, although again we only have one season's worth of data. In your opinion, does it then follow that a strategy of BACKING the short priced home favourite in the final two months of the season would/should be profitable?

There's no straight answer to this, since as always, the decision depends on the prices available, but if the home favourite has an incentive to win, while the road team doesn't, it wouldn't be unreasonable to factor this into the ratings calculation and compare the new price with what is available. I don't maintain ratings for baseball (the importance of the pitcher makes this too much work) but Peter generously includes the prices he considers value, so this could be a starting point. Teams with no apparent incentive to win will still win games. Athletes don't like losing, and in baseball players are always looking to boost their individual statistics because it means money to them, speaking of which, the much anticipated movie Moneyball is set for release in the UK on 25th November. If you enjoy baseball or statistics in sport, mark your calendars.

Equally anticipated is the NFL game later today between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's an AFC North Division game, and promises to be a close one. Since 2007, no game has seen a victory margin of more than 9 points, but the real reason the world awaits with such anticipation is because the game will be covered in Mark Iverson's NFL Trading Room. Game time is 6pm, but be warned that there could be a significant delay in kick-off while America remembers the 3,000 people who died ten years ago on 11/9/01 or 9/11/01 as the Americans put it. How ever bad your betting results are today, remember things could always be a whole lot worse.