Bursting Bubbles

Oh dear. I appear to have upset one reader with my post yesterday morning and lest anyone consider my reporting biased, the offended party's comment is here in full: (the numerous spelling, punctuation and grammatical errors are left in place)

you are completely out of order for this post, you have got me completely wrong. I offer FREE advice, i offer people the chance to watch me trade LIVE in the hope of them picking up tips.

Since i went full-time in May i have made over 30k profit fro trading pre race and inrunning. To me that is not a lot of money, as i strive to earn in excess of 100k per year. I can't even be bothered reading all of your drivel you have posted, but i ask you to remove immediately, otherwise i will spout lies about yourself on my blog.

You will soon see once i start updating on a regular basis in January how wrong you are about me.

So the advice is offered for free! The betting community has found someone yet to make his fortune, who is willing to give away his edge to others - traders who are in direct competition with him - for nothing in return. Well, maybe, but for someone still striving to make 'huge amounts of money', this seems a strange decision. Not many of us yet to make our fortune would, upon discovering a treasure trove, tell complete strangers to help themselves before we had at least grabbed enough for our needs, so excuse my scepticism on this. Maybe the concept of an exchange hasn't been grasped by our friend yet.

Now £30k since May isn't too shabby at all. £5k a month in fact, which makes it all the more puzzling that the one screenshot he publishes shows a profit of just £180, taken from what must have been a distinctly average day. Why would you not use a rather more exciting day's screenshot?

The likelihood of a novice stumbling upon an edge in the shark-infested waters of horse-racing trading is also a factor to be considered, and his understanding of percentages is also a concern (how is 110% confidence even possible? - why not be more selective and hold out for the 120% confidence picks?). The numerous spelling, punctuation and grammatical errors are left in place:

I like to find lays priced under 6.0 and i will usually find 1 or 2 each day, not a lot i know, but this is where im using my head and being patient, only laying the ones im 110% confident with. When im laying inrunning i will lay in more than 50% of the races each day, and with these il use an average liability of 3% of my betting bank as the results can be a lot more volatile, still i make a long term profit otherwise i wouldn't do them at all.

An edge that is present in 50% of races each day? Impressive. When he was asked for some evidence of this success on the Holy Grail thread he mentioned in a later comment, none was forthcoming and the moderator closed it as a result.

Anyway, everyone knows that the Holy Grail of betting was already discovered by Slicer. Well, except for the fact that it didn't work as detailed here.

And Mr. Daniels has still not added Green All Over to his list of "Daily Websites I Visit" - although I think he means "Websites I Visit Daily"! Criticism of his dreadful English resulted in this comment

well im sorry if im not a posh southerner! I haven' created a blog to satisfy english teachers!

Since a blog requires writing, it might be an idea to brush up on basic spelling and grammar first.

It was said of Slicer that he was either:

1. Very, very stupid - so unlikely to be in this postion
2. A charlatan - looking to profit from the gullibility of others
3. A smart individual who is attempting to manipulate the market to their advantage

I hope Mr. Daniels is a new possibility of 4. A very astute and selfless individual.

Enough of that - football now, and Griff, to his credit, is back with one draw selection this weekend, which is Wigan Athletic v Arsenal currently at 4.4.

Geoff, of Fulltimebettingblog.com hoping to retain top spot, has cut down on his selections hugely, from 11 to 8, and has come up with the below draws:

The Random Draw selections this week are Napoli v Lecce (4.9), Fiorentina v AS Roma (3.25) and Brest v St Etienne (3.15). I only just now noticed that Green Pullover found (I almost wrote fluked) a winning draw on Tuesday when Napoli and Juventus drew 3-3. What is it with all these 3-3 draws?

And one more blog for the blog roll - BubblesBrian (I have NO idea, and probably best not to ask) sucked up to me with:

Just added a link to your excellent blog. Not expecting you to link back, it's entirely up to you.

Love the sense of humor you have and I do hope that I don't get on the receiving end of your scathing wit :).

Well, I took a look, and Bubbles is just starting out -

There are many blogs out there about gambling on many sports but not many that start the journey from the beginning. And by beginning I mean from the day that the idea formulates in their head, and the journey they take.

The blog is called "A Gambler's Life For Me" and I have one suggestion for Bubbles (aside from adopting a more masculine name - you ever been to a West Ham game?) which is to read this post!Actually, having just read a little more, I have some further suggestions.

1. Forget about the horse-racing unless you have inside knowledge.

Horse Racing because for some reason that’s the first one that springs to mind when I think of betting.

is not a good reason to bet on horses.
2. Use the exchanges. Yes you are liable if your bet loses, but same as you are at a bookies. Just stick to backing until you get the hang of the lay side of it. Your liability is always made clear before you place the bet.
3. What the heck does this mean?

When I finally start my journey with cold hard cash there will be shock at the amount of money I intend to start with, but that’s another post in the future.

Don't do anything silly please. Put in the time to learn with pennies and build up slowly. If you can't build up slowly (as I have told O'Dwyer many times) you might as well give up.

The poll on the batting average is now closed, and all will be revealed in my next post.