Bad Beat, And Repeat

On New Year's Day, the XX Draw Selection was West Bromwich Albion v Everton at 3.45. In the 87', the game was tied, but Everton spoiled it by scoring.

Roll forward 24 hours, and the first of two XX Draw Selections was Wolverhampton Wanderers v Chelsea at 4.2. In the 89', the game was tied, when Chelsea scored.

Roll forward a couple of hours, and the second XX Draw Selection was Fulham v Arsenal at 3.7. In the 92', the game was tied, when Fulham scored.

In both of today's games, that 'winning' goal proved extra costly, because it also took away the win on the Under 2.5 goals markets. So close, and yet, so far.

I will also mention that I had another selection that just missed the cut as an ofiicial XX Draw Selection, and that was Sunderland v Manchester City. The draw-breaking goal in this game was two seconds from the end. Whine, whine.

Griff asked

when trading the American Football and NBA you watch all the games that you trade?

I don't watch all games in full, as so many are in-play simultaneously, but usually I find the games with the best liquidity and focus on those while keeping an eye on the scoreboards and prices on other games. You have to be careful with getting involved in games that you haven't been watching, because it's important to have a feel for the game, especially in the NBA. 

There's often a reason why the price is 'wrong' - for example, if Miami's James, Wade and Bosh are all in foul trouble early on, then the Heat will be a higher price than would otherwise be the case. In the NFL, a team might be resting it's starting quarterback for the play-offs, which reminds me of a post I read on this new blog which is a warning to be sure you understand the game before tipping on it. The suggestion was

It's been a while since our last post, but we're back online with some more tips for you. we don't normally suggest NFL picks, but there is one classic on later. The Green Bay Packers are going for a season of NFL undefeated! It's definitely worth a piece of money on it.

Incorrect. In the NFL, the goal is to win the Superbowl, not to go undefeated, which is why teams will often not play their stars in 'dead' games once they have already clinched home-field advantage. Not to mention that the comment "it's definitely worth a piece of money on it" is quite ridiculous without any reference to the price. The same blog had this yesterday

Miami Heat are faves for the overall championship and are confident at home at the moment. Lebron James and Dwayne Wade are on fire and they will want to continue the 5-0 winning streak they have at the moment.

An astute commenter suggested

For these tips to be meaningful, you need to include the price. Everyone knows that Miami Heat would beat Atlanta Hawks more often than not, but whether it is a value bet or not all depends on the price.

I couldn't have put it better myself. Oh wait a minute...

It's hard to believe that some people still think it's about finding winners rather than value.

My 2011 review is (still) on the way.