Some big movements pre-game in the Norwich City v Liverpool game this afternoon. My own numbers have Liverpool at 1.77, a price that most people consider very short. My spreadsheet of course doesn't know that this is a meaningless game for both teams, or that Liverpool have a big game coming up next week. The price of 1.77 is based on Liverpool's rating, and on their recent form - not just results, but taking into consideration other factors. In essence, Liverpool have deserved better results than they have achieved. With a little over 90 minutes to kick-off, Liverpool are trading at around 1.82 after being matched as high as 2.26 and as low as 1.8. I also have the Overs as value here.
The game that I was most interested in this afternoon was the Wigan Athletic v Newcastle United game, with both teams taking the match seriously. I mentioned a few posts ago that along with Liverpool, Wigan were a team that I rate higher than their league position might suggest, and priced by my spreadie at 1.95 and available at 3.0 a couple of days ago, this was a huge value bet. The game is not yet over, but at 3-0 it's looking good. Make that 4-0. Off to walk the dogs!
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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