Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.
Thursday, 2 August 2012
Easing In
With yesterday being the first of the month, I was taking the trading easy, because apart from ending the month with a loss, the next worst thing is starting the month off with a loss. I aim to trade optimally around the 14th to 16th each month, but a more detailed look at my numbers from 91 months show that I am failing miserably. The middle of the month appears to be my worst time. The percentages for each 7 day period are here:
Mid-Month Blues
I just noticed that the recent Cassini v Iverson post has already moved into 8th position in the all-time most popular posts. Maybe not most popular, but most read. Al has done some in depth research and analysis, and has concluded that: Mark's method of taking it easier at the end of the month could be the way forward. I lost 80 notes in the last few days of july. :-( So there we have it folks, conclusive proof that the end of the month is a time to ease up! With the smallest denomination of note in England £5, Al's 80 notes is at least £400. Crikey. The top two teams in the American League West played a thriller in Arlington this morning. The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim traded at 1.03 in the top of the tenth innings after taking a three run lead, but it wasn't enough as the Texas Rangers responded to win 11-10 in the bottom half. The Angels are now four games back of the Rangers. August is where baseball starts to get interesting, with the end of the season in sight. The AL Central is tight, with the Chicago White Sox ahead by 2.5 games of Detroit Tigers, and in the National League, all three divisions are close, none more so than the West where the Los Angeles Dodgers trail the San Francisco Giants by one game. This season there are two Wild Card teams from each league, with a one game play-off determining who makes the play-offs proper.
I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
Back in profit for 1st of Aug. Should not of been too aggressive at the end of July.
ReplyDeleteCass, if i remember rightly, there is a £1 note still in existance. Just not in circulation anymore. ;-)