Polling Ahead

More good news on the US Presidential bet from the New York Times who report that:

Mr. Obama’s forecast rose slightly, to an 83.8 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, from 82.7 percent on Friday.

As low as 1.22 might seem, there is some value there now, given that Obama's chances should be at 1.19.  To keep Scott happy, his pollster of choice also gets a mention, although for Romney supporters, it is more bad news.

Mr. Obama also pulled ahead to take a two-point lead in the Rasmussen Reports tracking poll, which had differed from other polling firms by previously showing a tie.

The Monday night game between Queens Park Rangers and West Ham United is still to come before the weekend numbers are wrapped up, but here are some observations.

Every weekend sees one or two EPL fixtures at the centre of activity. The world and his auntie thought that the price on Liverpool to beat Norwich City away was crazy. Football Elite selected Norwich City (Draw No Bet), Griff selected this as a draw, Premier Edge went for Over 2.5 goals, Tony and Neil were laying Liverpool, and the XX Draws had this as a Classic selection. In addition, someone called Sports Gambling Ace, I suspect the name is not meant to be taken literally, Tweeted

"Liverpool are due a win and at 8/11 that's worthwhile". 

"Due a win" is hardly a convincing argument, (Gambler's Fallacy), but in the event, Liverpool were the most comfortable of winners scoring in the 2' and never looking back. Of course, it is to be expected that the result is used to justify the selection, but it really is hard to justify that Liverpool were value at odds on. Even my ratings, which arguably flatter Liverpool right now, only had them at 2.24. Football Elite had a great write up on this game too, and I hope I won't get in trouble for repeating part of it here:

I cannot understand anyone who is serious about their betting backing Liverpool in this one (although many seem to be). If you are saying Liverpool are a value bet in this game at these odds then you are basically saying they should be priced in the same bracket as Man Utd and Man City which is just nonsense.

This game was an XX Draw (Classic) selection too, but not one of the best. This weekend saw six Classic selections, with none finishing as draws, with only Fulham v Manchester City coming close with an 87' draw breaker. That's the bad news. The good news is that the Extended selections more than made up for the Classic losses, with four draws from seven selections. The Extended Half-Time 0-0 bet is proving to be quite a gem. With an average price of 2.94, the strike rate on these is currently 28 of 57, and a profit of 25.76 points. 24 of those 28 went on to finish Under 2.5.

Another quirk of backing the five markets in every game is that a 1-0 result after a HT 0-0 is usually a better overall result for me than the 1-1.

The Bundesliga selections continue to hold their own, with one draw from two this weekend - Friday night's 'fluked' 2-2 which of course does nothing for the Under bets.

The Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur game showed just how unpredictable football is. Three goals in three minutes did a lot of damage / made a lot of money for several wallets one would imagine, but after that little outburst, nothing for the last 40 minutes. A lay of Manchester United was big value (I had them at 1.99) but did I lay them? Did I 'eck. This was one of those games where my numbers appeared so far off that it seemed prudent to leave well alone.

Sunderland v Wigan Athletic drew some attention too. Premier Edge had both teams to score at 1.96, but my numbers had this priced at 2.17. Peter Nordsted's Premier Betting had this as an Over 2.25 bet, but also came up short as the game finished 1-0.

In other news, from College Football comes another reminder of why handicap betting can be treacherous. Florida State were giving 17 points yesterday against South Florida, and were up by 13 late, when they had a chance to score a touchdown, but chose to go down untouched to run the clock down instead.

The Ryder Cup continues as I post this. Not a great day for me, losing money on the Ian Poulter v Webb Simpson game, but winning (smaller) on Rory McIlroy. I have the USA to win outright, but the evening has been a little more 'interesting' than I would have liked. This is the last week of regular Premium Charges, but the scorer may not be troubled if Europe keeps this up!

And for Al's benefit, here are just a few jokes about Romney. The sad thing is that while his Obama 'joke' was first seen circa 1929, and can be applied to any President, most of the below jokes have more than a grain of truth in them. And they're funny. Enjoy:

"Mitt Romney is worth half a billion dollars and he's saying he pays 13 percent annually in taxes. Al Capone paid more than 13 percent in taxes, ladies and gentlemen." –David Letterman

"Mitt Romney says he's never paid less than 13% in taxes, which I think is fair because only 13% of his money is in this country." –Jay Leno

"A hurricane is scheduled to hit Tampa during the Republican Convention. These winds are so strong they could actually blow some of Mitt Romney's money back in the United States." –Jay Leno

"Paul Ryan just released his tax returns for the last two years, and it turns out he and his wife had a combined income of over $323,000 last year. To which Mitt Romney said, 'See, I do reach out to poor people." –Jay Leno

"Republicans like Paul Ryan because they say he's a fiscal conservative, and that's a perfect balance for Romney who's a guy that has an elevator for his Cadillacs." –David Letterman

"Paul Ryan is full of excitement, he's drawing big crowds. The only thing holding Paul Ryan back now according to political experts is Mitt Romney." –David Letterman

"Speaking of Paul Ryan, a new poll actually found that 42 percent of Americans do not approve of Mitt Romney's running mate, which isn't too bad considering most Americans don't approve of Paul Ryan's running mate." –Jimmy Fallon

"In college Paul Ryan drove the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile. So he and Romney have something in common. Both have the experience of driving a car with a dog on the roof." –David Letterman

"Mitt Romney is hoping to energize Republicans by announcing Paul Ryan as his running mate. Seriously? That's like trying to spice up a bowl of oatmeal with more oatmeal." –Jimmy Fallon

"They say that Paul Ryan will humanize Romney. And I thought, hell, an amoeba could humanize Romney." – David Letterman

"Mitt Romney has picked Paul Ryan as his running mate. Experts say Ryan can add something vital to this campaign that Mitt Romney lacks: a personality." –Jay Leno

"It is crucial that Romney pick a running mate who will help him with the groups he's weak with: women, Hispanics, African Americans, Evangelical Christians – and Republicans." –Stephen Colbert

"Mitt Romney is claiming he’s going to create 12 million jobs in his first term. But he hasn’t said yet if he’ll create them in China or India.” –Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney annoyed the British by saying that London seemed unprepared for the Olympics. You know, putting his foot in his mouth like that is not very presidential. Vice presidential, sure. Yeah, but not presidential." –Jay Leno

"Mitt Romney's search for a vice president continues As you know, one of Mitt Romney's problems is that he's never hired an American for a job before, so this is new." –Jay Leno

"Mitt Romney has been giving his volunteers a free sweatshirt for making phone calls on his behalf. The sweatshirts are just like Romney, 100 percent reversible." -Jimmy Fallon

"This Facebook fiasco is one of the biggest clusterf**ks ever on Wall Street. Regular people got screwed and the banks and the insiders did okay. Or as Mitt Romney calls it, 'The American Dream.'" –Bill Maherl



"Mitt Romney was attacking Obama about our failing education system. He has a point. We are graduating millions of people in this country who are so lacking in basic analytical skills, they are considering voting for Mitt Romney." –Bill Maherl



"A new biography came out that says that in high school Obama was a huge pothead … Mitt Romney had to respond to this and said, ‘It is appalling that Obama spent his teenage years goofing around and smoking pot when he should have been pinning down gay kids and cutting their hair." –Bill Maherl

"Mitt Romney believes that marriage should be between one man and one woman. Which is better than his grandfather, who believed that it should be between one man and five women." -Jimmy Kimmel

"Today Mitt Romney visited a firehouse here in New York City. Of course, he was disappointed when he learned that the firehouse is not where you get to fire people." –Jimmy Fallon

"Mitt Romney, who is on record saying that he would not waste money going after bin Laden, on record saying he would not violate Pakistan's border to get bin Laden, this week said, 'Of course I would have gotten bin Laden.' Even his Etch-A-Sketch went, seriously?" –Bill Maher

"Republicans are now starting to accept the fact that Mitt Romney will be their nominee for president. But you know, they're not that excited about it. It's kind of like starting to accept that you're going to prom with your sister." –Jay Leno

"That Mitt Romney, he is a master campaigner. This week he was introducing his wife, and he said, ‘She is the heavyweight champion of my life.” Which may explain why on the ride home, he was strapped to the roof of the car." –Bill Maher

"Mitt Romney just barely won the Republican primary in Ohio by 1%. Then Romney made the mistake of saying, 'Ladies and gentlemen, tonight is a victory for the 1%!'" –Conan O'Brien

"First Mitt won Iowa, then he lost Iowa? That's a classic Romney flip-flop." –Stephen Colbert

"Congratulations to Mitt Romney. He won the New Hampshire primary last night. See, this is proof that even the multimillionaire son of a multimillionaire can beat the odds and run for president of the United States." –Jay Leno

"Mitt Romney is saying his comments about liking to fire people were taken out of context. Yeah, what he actually said was he likes to set poor people on fire." –Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney says he understands the middle class, and that he knows it's not easy keeping a roof over your family's heads — as well as vacation roofs in San Diego, New Hampshire, and Park City, Utah." –Jay Leno

"How about Mitt Romney? Now there's a guy who looks like you would see his picture on a package of men's briefs." –David Letterman

"I'm having trouble warming up to Mitt Romney. He looks like the guy in the restaurant that comes to your table to make sure everything's all right." –David Letterman

"Apparently a large branch of Mitt Romney’s family lives in Mexico. ... His grandfather in the late 1800s moved his whole family to Mexico to avoid being prosecuted for polygamy. ... Mitt can use that to show that he’s tough on immigration. His family kicked themselves out of the country." –Jimmy Kimmel

"Mitt Romney says President Obama's promises are like Kim Kardashian's wedding vows. President Obama shot back. He said Romney's positions last about half as long as a Kim Kardashian wedding." –Jay Leno

"Mitt Romney has come under fire for his pledge to eliminate federal funding for PBS. Romney said, 'When I'm president, the only operated puppet speaking to kids will be me." –Conan O'Brien

"Political analysts are saying that Mitt Romney is having trouble generating enthusiasm among Iowa voters. Now, ladies and gentlemen, you know you have a problem when people in Iowa find you dull." –Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney’s wife says her husband loves caffeine free Diet Coke. Or as it's known in the Mormon community, the ultimate gateway drug." –Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney tried to make a $10,000 bet with Rick Perry during a presidential debate. Well, who says the Republicans are rich snobs out of touch with the common man?" –Jay Leno

"Many voters feel that Mitt Romney is out of touch with real Americans after he tried to make a bet with Rick Perry for $10,000. When asked to comment, Mitt said, 'I'm sorry, but that's all I had in my pocket at the time.'" –Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney admitted in an interview, 'I tasted a beer and tried a cigarette once as a wayward teenager and never did it again. This has the makings of the lamest 'Behind the Music' special yet." –Jimmy Kimmel

"Most analysts agree the big debate winner last night was Mitt Romney, who stuck closely to his strategy of not being any of the other candidates." –Jimmy Kimmel

"Hookers in Times Square, God bless 'em, are offering a Mitt Romney Special. For an extra $20 they'll change positions." –David Letterman

"In an interview last night, Rick Perry criticized Mitt Romney for flip-flopping on the issues. Romney said that Perry has no idea what he's talking about. Then he added, 'But he does know what he's talking about.'" –Jimmy Fallon

‎"Almost all of Rick Perry's support appears to have gone to Herman Cain because, again, and I cannot stress this enough, nobody likes Mitt Romney." –Jon Stewart

"You got to feel bad for poor Mitt Romney. He's in their plugging every week, and every week somebody gets ahead of him. The people who have led Mitt so far: Donal Trump, then Michele Bachmann, then Rick Perry, now Herman Cain. He's been led by a reality show star, a crazy lady, a stuttering cowboy, and the guy who brings the pizza. That's gotta hurt a little." –Bill Maher

"The founder of Home Depot announced that he is supporting Mitt Romney for president. It's kind of a nice story, because Mitt Romney was actually assembled with parts from Home Depot." –Jimmy Fallon

"As the Republicans continue checking underneath every available flag pin and Bible for viable candidates, presumed de facto frontrunner candidate Mitt Romney has gotta be thinking, ‘What the fudge? This is starting to hurt where my feelings should be.'" –Jon Stewart

"According to a poll, over 50 percent of viewers thought Mitt Romney won this week's presidential debate. They thought Mitt Romney won, yeah. Romney credits the win to his grasp of the issues and the good people at Mattel, who built him." —Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney was sitting down with some unemployed workers the other day. Mitt is worth a quarter of a billion dollars, and he said, 'Hey, I'm unemployed too.' That is the famous Mormon sense of humor. A little tip Mitt, your people are only funny when the 'South Park' guys write your jokes. " —Bill Maher

"Mitt Romney has announced he's running for president in 2012. At the same time, he's announced he'll try again in 2016." —Stephen Colbert

"Experts are predicting that in the first Republican debate, Mitt Romney will face his fiercest ideological opponent: himself from four years ago." —Conan O'Brien

"Mitt Romney was on the 'Today Show' and admitted he likes to read the 'Twilight' books and watch 'American Idol.' If elected, he would be the 1st Mormon and the 1st 13-year-old girl to be President." —Jimmy Kimmel

"I think Mitt Romney and Sarah Palin would be the perfect ticket. She can't answer basic questions, and he has two answers for every question." —Jay Leno

"Well, the presidential race is getting interesting. In an effort to clear up his reputation as a flip-flopper, Mitt Romney will give a speech on health care. And then, right afterward, he'll give a five-minute rebuttal." —Jay Leno

"No! Not Captain Buzzkill! Not the guy who looks like everyone who ever fired your dad! He's gonna suck all the fun right out of this crazy thing. Just look at the online video announcing his run. It looks like it could double as an ad for erectile dysfunction pills. 'Mitt Romney: for when the moment's right.'" —Jon Stewart on Mitt Romney running for president

"Mitt Romney looks like a guy modeling briefs on a package of underwear ... He looks like a guy who goes to the restroom when the check comes ... He looks like a guy who would run a seminar on condo flipping ... He looks like he is the closer at a Cadillac dealership.... He looks like that guy on the golf course in the Levitra commercial." —David Letterman