Just 1,317 To Go

One Classic XX Draw selection last night, which was the 2-2 draw between Palermo and AC Milan. The draw was good - the four goals not so good, at least for anyone also backing the Unders, and a 45th minute goal snatched a win from the HT00 market too.

I was going to say that I missed the COCUp matches for better opportunities later in the NBA, but when games end 5-7 and teams throw away 4-0 leads, I guess there were opportunities galore in the football too.

The opening game of the new NBA season saw exactly the movement in price that I have mentioned ad nauseum.  Here's the chart for the Cleveland Cavaliers at the end of their game against the Washington Wizards:

Cavaliers Roller-Coaster Ride

Lay in the 1.0s and you won't go far wrong. Unfortunately not EVERY game goes this well, but there are 1,230 games in a regular season and some go even better than this, with the 1.0x team going on to lose.

The third game of the night was the overrated Los Angeles Lakers versus the Dallas Mavericks, missing Dirk Nowitzki. Kobe Bryant did play, but the Lakers were always too short in my opinion. After losing all 8 pre-season games, they started off ok, not great, but there was never a reason to back them and they went as low as 1.17.

 At half-time, the Lakers trailed by two points and were out to 1.4, before playing even worse and losing to a solid Dallas team by 8 points, 99-91. After dipping my toes in earlier, I finally took the plunge in the third quarter:

Third Quarter

A nice start to the season, and if you read my NBA preview over at Betting Expert like I told you, and made some money, remember who your friends are. And the best of it is, it happens all the time (well, quite often).

Dallas play again tonight, at Utah who can score in a hurry, as do the Lakers who now travel to Portland and this could be a game to watch for opportunities in. Portland were 60% at home last season, and the Lakers were 45% on the road, and they are playing back-to-back with a dodgy Kobe, an ageing Steve Nash, and a Dwight Howard who hit just 3 of 14 free throws. Favourites?

LayThatDraw asked: "How does one go about watching live NBA in the UK. Must one purchase League Pass on nba.com? If so, how delayed are the pictures?" A quick search on the Internet for something like "celtics @ heat live stream" will usually give you several options, although some may require a little technical jiggery-pokery before they will work. Nothing that a sharp mind can't figure out. The NBA.com scoreboard appears to update very fast, and you can usually see from the numbers how far behind your pictures are. I find it less of an issue than with tennis (with no betting in the USA the court-sider problem doesn't exist) and unlike tennis, the prices tend not to move so much on a big play unless it's late in the game. It goes without saying to take care, especially late on, but the rewards far exceed the risks once you know what you are doing.

The United 'fan' replied to my post yesterday, missing the point that my 'blinkered' comment referred to our friend's view of the game. Posting the thoughts of another doesn't, in any way, erase the writer's own opinion which I say again, was blinkered. If I were to say that Romney's suggestion that it's immoral for the government to help those affected by a natural disaster is a disgrace, posting a comment by someone else - let's call him Al - saying "actually, I think Romney's right" in no way reflects a change in my opinion, merely a concession that others may think differently.

The United 'fan' also misses the point that I was drawing attention to the comment that the game was overshadowed by the 'amount of fuss' - his quote, with which I opened yesterday's post was:

"For me the game was overshadowed by the amount of fuss made about refereeing decisions"

But now it has become -

Was the game not overshadowed by the refereeing decisions then?

Quite a difference.

Incidentally, back to Romney, and strange how he doesn't seem to be following up his June 2011 opinion when it comes to Hurricane Sandy. I wonder why? Surely the hypocrite isn't being influenced by the Election less than a week away? The market seems to think so, with Obama down to 1.42 / 1.43. With time running out, I'm certainly not looking to lay off any time soon. The respected 538 blog now has Obama with a 77.4% probability of winning (1.29). Get some of that 1.43 while you still can.

In the only states that matter, Romney currently leads in just one - North Carolina. Florida was leaning Romney's way, but the latest poll has Obama leading. Prone to hurricanes, perhaps Floridians have woken up to the fact that  Romney is not a man fit for the White House, and that's apart from his nutty cult views, something else he has kept very quiet about during the campaign. Hard to take someone seriously when they actually believe Jesus visited America, (have they no idea how hard it is to get a Green Card?) and that he was born of a "physical" relationship between Mary and God (i.e. there was no virgin birth!) - gasp - now that really is a ridiculous belief.

It was interesting to see that recent polls in the UK and Germany both showed 90%+ support for Obama. What a shame that only Americans get to vote in the US Presidential Election. Credit to Chris Christie for rising above politics for once and calling it like it is. Should the unthinkable happen, and Romney win the election, I think we can expect Christie not to be given a cabinet position!

"I am not going to play politics with this issue, this is so much bigger than an election," reiterates Christie. "When someone asks me an honest question, I give an honest answer: 'How's the president been to deal with?' He's been outstanding to deal with on this. And I look forward to seeing him tomorrow so he can see for himself, what this hurricane has done to my state."

Poor Winners?

"For me the game was overshadowed by the amount of fuss made about refereeing decisions"

How blinkered can one be? The game (Chelsea v Manchester United) was totally ruined by poor refereeing decisions, but this United fan complains about the ensuing 'fuss' overshadowing the game.

There is a 'fuss' because it was an awful refereeing display, and just about everyone who saw the game would agree. Am I the only one who saw contact made with Torres' shin? Am I the only one who saw Hernandez in the back of the net a second or two before scoring? Admittedly the linesman should have made that call, but it was an inept display for a Premier League referee.

As for the allegations of 'inappropriate language', we shall see. I have seen it said that a lip-reader has confirmed the allegations, and it's a very unusual move made by Chelsea. I await the outcome with interest. Having previously been suspended for eight months, one would hope that if found guilty, he will be gone for good.

Rant over. Typical United fan - probably lives in the Home Counties.

Moving on, and I need to clarify a comment in yesterday's post where I wrote: Overall a small profit on the weekend

One XX Draw subscriber queried this statement, and I should have been clear that it related to the results on backing the eight selections as draws. I also back these in other markets as I have written previously, and these combined showed a loss, but because I'm not sure how people use the selections, comments like this generally refer to the draw bet unless I say otherwise.

For the record the weekend draws in the three categories (Classic, Extended and Bundesliga) were +1.6, -1.4 and +2.7 respectively for a net of +2.9. 

Overall, i.e. the draw markets plus four others I use (U1.5, U2.5, U3.5 HT00), the total went from +15.52 to +8.6 - not good, but more selections midweek and looking to end October with a profit. 

My efforts to record every market's P&L and commission generated, including the implied, paid off, with my predicted Super Premium Charge being within one penny of that calculated by Betfair, once I determined the start time for the charge to apply.

The cut-off time appears to be 1am - I had a bet settled at 12:57am on Monday last week which was not included, and another at 1:22am which was.

The worst part of it is seeing how tough it is to beat the charge
  

A big night tonight in the Cassini calendar with the NBA returning to real action, although I rather liked the pre-season results and from a trading perspective, it seems to be better if the games don't count. I'm not sure the Lakers will lose their next eight games. They open up against the Dallas Mavericks tonight, but possibly missing Kobe Bryant so be warned.

In case you didn't already know, the NBA is without doubt the best sport for trading. In my opinion. There's a quite brilliant couple of articles on trading the NBA over at Betting Expert which could very well have been written by myself and which outline why it's so good as well as reveal many of my secrets.   

Seeing Red

A very frustrating Sunday, with the Chelsea v Manchester United game leading the list of frustrations. As you might have guessed, this was an XX Draw (Extended) selection, and while there were too many goals before the sending-offs, at 2-2 the draw looked like a definite possibility for a while, but it was not to be.

The eight XX Draws, with four on Saturday, four on Sunday, were a definite weekend of two halves. Saturday saw 0-0, 3-3, 1-1 and 1-0 while Sunday saw 3-1,  2-1, 1-3 and the 2-3 already mentioned. Overall a small profit on the weekend, but a very frustrating Sunday. It's as if I used up all my luck with the 3-3 Reading v Fulham draw.

Here's how the table looks after the weekend, followed by a quick run down of the weekend's picks. If I have erred anywhere, please correct me:

XX Draws (Bundesliga): Only one selection this weekend, Greuther Furth v Werder Bremen (1-1) and although only 15 selections in total for the season, this category is holding up very well so far.

XX Draws (Extended): Five selections, one lucky winner, a 1-0, but nothing to crow about this weekend.

Drawmaster: As mentioned yesterday, these selections are hot right now. Seven winners from the last nine, and a hat-trick this weekend, for the second time in the last three rounds.

Neil's Selections: A small loss on the weekend, but saved by the Everton v Liverpool draw.

Premier Betting: Still in profit overall, but the losing run extends to four with two more losers. Manchester City did not lead 1-0 or 2-0 at half-time v Swansea City, and there were not more second-half goals at Chelsea than there were first half.

Below the break-even line, the XX Draw (Classic) selections had a 0-0 followed by a 3-1 (Bastia v Bordeaux).

CKL Selections found two overs out of three for a small profit on the weekend, while Football Formbook found two winners from five for a small loss.

Football Elite found two winners from five selections, but basically trod water for the weekend. The final selection of Hannover '96 to beat Borussia Moenchengladbach came close, with the hosts holding a 2-0 at 70 minutes, before losing 2-3.

Premier Edge, previously hitting at 50% had a poor weekend, losing on all four selections, and Little Al was perhaps a little unlucky in missing two long-shot draws by 1-0 - Arsenal v QPR and Manchester City v Swansea City.

Jon (Talkbet) had a profitable weekend to trim his losses, with selections from Carlisle (losing) to Cagliari (winning) and others in-between.

Tony's strategy of laying away favourites seems to have hit the wall, with all five lays winning, scoring 15 goals between them and conceding just one..

The Free Under / Overs had a small loss splitting the weekend's selections, and backing Ian Erskine's Lay The Draw selections continues to be futile. He is certainly finding winners (for him) and is on a 'losing' run of 12.

For the second consecutive week, no selections were received from Griff.

The big winner of the weekend was of course Drawmaster, moving up eight places to fifth, while the big loser was Tony, dropping from 9th to 23rd.

Finally, I managed to do a good job on reducing the Super Premium Charge to be debited on Halloween, getting in a right mess at the end of the New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys NFL game. One of the most annoying things about the NFL is that an apparently brilliant play ends up being invalidated by a precise interpretation of the rules, and a 'winning' TD was discounted because the Dallas receiver hadn't trimmed his finger nails yesterday morning. It was that close, but I console myself that only half was lost, because half would have gone anyway. According to the Betfair Forum, £34k was matched at 1.01 on Dallas before the call was overturned. None of that was mine, in case you were wondering.

All in all, it was an annoying day, but October should still be the best month of 2012 with more NFL and the NBA opening up this week. I'm also hoping to nail down precisely when the Premium Charge is effective each week, since no one reading this seemed to know.  

Draw Power

It's been an interesting week, my best in a long time, and not to tempt fate, but October is looking like it will be my best month since May of 2012, despite the Super Premium Charge.

Or because of it?

As I've mentioned before, the higher 'tax rate' is strangely liberating. Lose £500 and I'd have 'lost' half of it anyway. The net result is a week of accepting more risk, less value than I usually look for, and a volatile week with four-figure swings on four of the last seven days, three up, and one down. It's all good though. I keep checking in at BETDAQ, but for the markets I need, they are frankly either non-existent or useless.

Some NFL games today, and the start of the NBA season next week will only help matters. Here's a quick look at Saturday's football matches.

The opening game of the weekend was Aston Villa v Norwich City, and I had Aston Villa at 1.87 for this, and was on at 2.1. After the red card, it seemed like a good idea to lay off, and reduce the liability to little more than zero, but I should have gone a step further as Norwich completely dominated the second half.

Joy for Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster, despair for Neil who had selected Aston Villa and Premier Edge who had the Over 2.5 goals, and for me, 90 minutes of my life wasted.

Drawmaster selections went 3 from 3 for the second time in the last three rounds, and are now shooting up the FTL table. One of them was an absolute fluke of course, the 3-3 Reading v Fulham game. The other draw was Stoke City v Sunderland.

Lest anyone need an example of the random fluctuations we often find, Peter has had 26 selections to date this season. Of the first 13, he had just one winner. Of the next 13 he has had 8 winners, and 7 from the last 9, going from a low of -10.4 points on 23 September to a current +5.81 points. Getting hot on draws can do that for a system, another reason to love them.

My own XX Draws had a pretty good day too. Four selections including the one Bundesliga, (Greuther Furth v Werder Bremen 1-1), with three winners and the other finishing 1-0 (Real Betis v Valencia).

While I had a perfect draw in the Espanyol v Malaga (Classic) game, I was probably proudest of the Reading v Fulham 3-3 draw which was a brilliant selection owing absolutely nothing to chance, and everything to the unique algorithms of my spreadsheet, finely tuned and engineered after a close study of 4,025 matches.

OK, I lie. As I've said before, I'll take the win, but 3-3 score-lines are honestly not what I am looking for. Of 1,323 Classic, Extended and Bundesliga matches, just 10 have ended 3-3 - (IP 0.0076, 132.3)  And as for how to record the situation after 80 minutes... losing, winning, losing, win. Six goals is usually a nightmare, but this was a nightmare with a happy ending.

I have four more selections today, and a few others have Sunday action too, so I'll do a full write up on the weekend when those are complete. Looking ahead though, the three games in the EPL that have attracted attention are:

Everton v Liverpool

Neil (+1.2, +4.6%) has the draw, while Premier Edge (-4.38, -11.2%) goes for 2 or 3 goals total.

Southampton v Tottenham Hotspur

Tony (-2.84,  -7.3%) is laying Tottenham, while Football Formbook (-3.6, -30%) is backing Tottenham.

Chelsea v Manchester United

Jon (Talkbet) (-9.25, -23.7%) goes for the draw, as does Neil (+1.2, +4.6%). Football Formbook (-3.6, -30%) go for a Chelsea win.

Since no one has said anything about the Newcastle United v West Bromwich Albion game, it must be because everyone thinks the prices are about right. At 2.03, I actually have Newcastle looking rather short myself, with my numbers suggesting 2.37 as correct and to me, there is value on the Unders, with the 2.5 market at 2.09.

Hold Or Fold

Tony wrote:

On the flip side, how many games were 1 down, 2 down etc at 81mins but went on to finish a draw? [Don't know, but it happens!]

How many were a draw at 81mins and went on to finish a draw? [243 of 277 - 87.7%, IP 1.14]

If you only lay winning bets at 81mins but don't lay losing bets at 81mins then to me you are only cutting profits, or increasing your losses on a system that is not profitable to start with. [Agree totally]

It always amazes me how many people put bets on, whether singles or accumulators and want to lay bets off with x number of mins left or 1 leg to go on an accumulator that doesn't kick off until 4pm the following day. Yet the same people never lay the bet off 3 legs into a 6 team acca when the 3rd team is getting beat 1-0 at half- time. [Preaching to the choir]

The time-decay idea seems flawed to me too, which is why, for football, I typically punt rather than trade.

and my exit point is where exactly?

Exit

Gundulf returned, to make an amazing confession. He doesn't avidly study the FTL table. Seriously? Not only that, but he feels it doesn't take up enough of my time already.

Thanks for the answer, Cassini. I don't profess to avidly studying the FTL - but it does seem that late goals feature frequently in your write ups! Perhaps that's an illusion, and, as Tony rightly points out they can cause as well as wreck a draw!

I'd love to see the draw at 1.14 at 80 minutes... but reckon it doesn't usually hit that price until nearer, or beyond, 90 minutes.

The FTL table doesn't show the Strike Rate for the various combatants, and I'm not mathematically adept enough to work it out from the figures given (don't even know if that's possible!) - worth another column in the spreadie?

I think the reason that they appear to feature so frequently is because they are so darned annoying! It's the nature of football that the merits of the final result very much depend on how that score was arrived at. For example, without knowing any details, you might consider that a 1-1 draw between a lower placed home team and a slightly higher placed away team might be a result both teams would be content with, but if one team scored in the opening minute and led until conceding a 94th minute penalty, you can guess that one team would be a lot happier with the final result that the other. That's why the late goals that take away the 'apparent' victory are so painful. Human nature.

I certainly have the strike rate for most of the competitors, but not for those (Premier Edge and Griff's / Over Unders) who hit me with up to 13 selections in a weekend, where I simply record the total P&L. Premier Edge probably have this data available if they would like to hand it over! Strike Rate is not exactly meaningful when comparing different types of bets, but it's easy enough to add, so look for it from next week.

Nothing To Braga Bout

If anyone knows for sure when Betfair's week for Premium Charge purposes starts and ends, I'd love to know. I had two big (relative term) wins last week, one of was settled at 5:05am on Monday, and which appears to have been excluded from this week's Premium Charge calculation. As close as I can work it out, their week seems to start and end at 4:00am Monday. It wasn't such a big deal at 20%, but at 50%, I really need to know where I stand.

I'm trying to track every market this week to get it exactly right. I would have thought it was from midnight Sunday going into Monday, but that doesn't quite appear to be the case.

Anyway, I mentioned that the Super Premium Charge is strangely liberating, and since I was playing with taxable profits, I threw a little on Manchester United to beat Braga. What could possibly go wrong? Well, in the end nothing, and I even doubled down at 0-1. At 0-2, I did not re-double (this isn't backgammon with my son, and I always lose when I play him), and consoled myself with the thought that I would have lost half of the stake to Premium Charge anyway. In the end, it all worked out, and I won some money that, were it not for the Super Premium Charge, I never would have gone for.

There's a saying in gambling that scared money never wins, or in street lingo, that "scared money don't make no money", and while the latter is not very good English, (don't nobody know that double negatives shouldn't never be used?) the truth of the sentiment expressed in both sayings really is even more apparent since the Super PC kicked in.

What I mean by this is that it is a lot easier to make the optimal decision if you are genuinely unconcerned (almost) about the outcome. There was one very sensible poster on the Betfair Forum a few years ago who went by the name of Lori, and he went so far as to only look at his numbers from time to time, confident enough in his selection process, and anxious to avoid the influence of emotions that can lead to playing too loose or too tight, to borrow the poker terms.

With sports betting, changing your style isn't usually a good idea. Find a profitable approach and stick with it.  And yes, that means any time of the day, day of the week, or time of the month / quarter / year!

Gundulf posted a comment, which was:

Cassini, whilst I appreciate that the various selections you and the others make for your Friendly Tipster League are essentially straight backs I can't help wondering how often over the last season a late goal such as Falcao's on Sunday snatches defeat from the jaws of victory?
I'm sure you keep good records and am further wondering what effect on your p&l and roi a simple hedging at say 85 minutes (or 40 mins for the H/T selections) would have had?

As I've mentioned before, unless there is any reason to suspect that the price after 85 minutes (or any arbitrary number of minutes for that matter) is wrong, then there is no good reason to trade out. Having said that though, if you have identified the draw as value at say 3.5 pre-game, then it is reasonable to assume that as the game stays goalless and the price drifts lower, your edge will slowly reduce, meaning that unless you do lay off as the game goes on you, by default, become over staked as measured by Kelly. So there is an argument for laying some off as the game goes on. I just don't buy into the idea that laying off after a certain number of minutes is going to increase profits in the long term.

Just for fun, I looked at how many games saw the draw taken away in the last 10 minutes of a game - or rather the 81st minute on - and the total is 34 out of 277, which equates to a price of 1.14. Could I lay at that price at 80 minutes? Would it make sense to do so? I don't monitor the prices on these games, but if anyone knows how they typically compare to 1.14 after 80 minutes, it would be interesting to know.

It's a new bet, and thus a very small sample, but for the 32 matches with no goals at 40 minutes, six saw the HT 0-0 bet lose, implying a lay price of 1.23 would be needed.

Yes, it certainly seems that goals such as Falcao's come along all the time, but they don't. It makes no more sense to me to lay off after 5 minutes than it does after 85 minutes, or anywhere in between, but as I said earlier, it does make some sense to lay off as the price drops during the game. 

Looking Down

Poppy Appeal

Following on from the weekend, I had a couple of interesting emails / comments to mention.

First was an email from Football Elite’s Matt, talking about the poor results of late for his Recommended Bets. Down 4.15 points on the season, ROI – 31.9%, is certainly not where Matt would like to be a quarter of the way into the season, but as he says, we have no control over the sequence of our results. If bets are value, then long-term they will be profitable, but there are no guarantees in the short-term.

Drifting off topic for a second, I received a request on the XX Draws site asking:

Please, can you give 4 or 4 u.k. football matches that will not fail to result to a draw? If yes, how much can it cost me in a week?

Not asking for too much, is he? The answer is no, I can’t. Neither can anyone, and certainly not when it comes to draws! There is no prediction in football that cannot fail. All we can do, whatever our niche selections are, is find matches that, in the long run, will prove profitable because our evaluation of the true probability is more accurate than the market’s. Which is easier said than done of course.

Back to Matt and I can empathise with him, especially now that I send out my own XX Draws. I probably shouldn’t allow it to, but running a service does make the weekends a lot more stressful than I ever imagined. I feel more than a little responsible for the outcomes of my selections, and late goals such as Atletico Madrid’s on Sunday night have the potential to ruin one’s day.

We all know that bet size is meaningful only to the individual, but I know that at least one person puts $500AU on the Draw and Under 2.5 goals markets, and to me that’s a lot of money for a bet of this nature. Having sent out my selections though, what people do with them, and the stakes they use, is out of my control, so perhaps I shouldn’t let it worry me. For all I know, several subscribers might be laying the draw on my selections, and keeping a table somewhere showing the outcome!

At least this week the news from Australia made for pleasant reading:

XX Draws had an amazing week with over $6,000 profit. All the profit was wiped off by FB Elite who is having a terrible season and FB analysts Euro picks.

One thing the pressure doesn’t do though is influence the selections. One advantage of an automated, or at least objective, selection process is that emotions don’t come into it. Matt is second-guessing his decision to make most of his selections Draw No Bet recommendations, although to me, the long-term returns should be about the same however you back the selections, so it all boils down to what your comfort level is on losing streaks.

Shorter prices, mean shorter losing streaks, which means smaller, but more frequent, winnings. Longer losing runs are the opposite, but the net returns should be about the same. I say 'should' because in a small sample of matches, randomness manifests itself and net returns can be quite disparate.  Look no further than the XX Draw results. Selections are made according to the same criteria, but individual bets run hot then cold.

Back to Matt, and his thoughts on how switching from the more aggressive win only bet to a DNB selection may have affected his selections:

Having that draw safety net there may be subconsciously affecting my selection process. I know I shouldn’t let it of course, but that is easier said than done. I’m not generally a fan of automating everything into ratings and/or systems in football as I think it’s a sport that needs a bit of manual intervention but the downside to that is it leaves you open to falling victim to natural human weakness. In this case I don’t think it is in terms of the bets I’m picking but in terms of the bets I’m not picking. Those 2.0 – 2.25 win bets that keep things ticking over are harder to pick as 1.4 DNB bets as there’s kind of a subconscious need to have a higher standard and take less of a risk at those odds. Stupid, but human nature. I’m writing this here and not hiding from the fact as I think it’s important to publically acknowledge when you’ve messed up to ensure it doesn’t happen again.

A very honest assessment, and I hope Matt doesn't mins my repeating this except here. Although Matt records his bets as he should, none of his subscribers are obligated to follow them exactly. I often compare his selections with my own, and may leave his selection alone, may play the bet as recommended, or may play it differently. If the selection is Genoa for example, you can back them to win, lay the opponents, back with DNB, back them on the Asian Handicap, back them to win either half. It's all up to you.

Chris posted a comment:

Good update, must take you a while to process all the results although probably a little more fun when the table is screaming out that the XX draws service is currently beating all comers. Still it's a long season so there is still hope for the rest of us...

Well, not exactly. The flagship of the XX Draw fleet should be the Classic selections, with the red-headed stepchild the Bundesliga picks, but leading the way by some distance are the Extended selections, and boy am I glad I decided to include those for this season!  But at least overall, the X Draws are in profit. 

And then we had this very interesting observation from Henke:

One of the problems I see is that most of the people are only inclined towards the major leagues. Like the premiership, most of the time it is harder to draw conclusions than say, even compared to the Bundesliga. My tip would be to select a niche "not-so-much-popular" league, focus and follow it for a whole season seeing what you could get away with. For instance the Dutch League, the 2nd Dutch League, the Scandinavian Leagues, the Turkish league might be a better value, as the odds are usually slightly higher for favourites (especially in scandinavia). Obviously they are harder to guess, but as I said a focus on a niche market rather than playing just for the major leagues, especially the Premiership, might perhaps be a good idea. At least for experimenting to see what you could get.

Moreover I always believe there is quite a lot of money to be made especially on UEFA cup due to differences in league qualities. Although last round was a bit weird, playing handicapped for the favourite might be good idea. As said, experiments on that could be made.

Cheers

While guessing isn't my practice, this is something I have thought about in the past, and intended to get around to this season, but never quite did. It may be more glamorous to scan the matches involving teams from Milan, Madrid, Manchester, Marseille and Gelsenkirchen but as I have noticed in other sports, the widespread attention these matches attract doesn't necessarily mean bigger profits, and quite often it means the opposite. If you know what you're doing, liquidity is overrated.  

There are good reasons to pick the top leagues, one being that the teams stay more constant than lower leagues, with just two or three teams being replaced at the end of the season. There's a wealth of data out there, but of course everyone else also has access to the same data, so while finding an edge might be tough, at least you shouldn't be too far wrong with the efficient markets. TV coverage is readily available, so you can watch your selections in action, although again, this might not be a good thing. The justification that by picking the top leagues, you are ensuring a fair game doesn't even hold true, as is shown by the shenanigans seen in Serie A, but drop down too low, and you have other problems. Smaller squads mean that key players really are key players, and any injuries, personal problems etc. can mean that your value price really isn't.

I've always felt that Leagues One or Two might be a good one to try this theory out on. It's English for a start, which means decent media coverage, and the possibility of a fix is in my opinion very small. I wouldn't be so sure about some leagues to the East in Europe. League One sees close to a third of its composition arriving from either above or below, which means early season form can be unreliable, but there are more games so it's not all bad. Non league always seems a little too low, with teams folding rather too often these days, or at least going to administrations. Boston United, Salisbury City, Chester City and most lately Kettering Town, to name but a few. I spent many happy hours watching Kettering in my youth, and very sad to see their decline of late. 140 years of history about to disappear.

Anyway, it's a great point, and from a purely financial viewpoint, I can see that a competitive and professional, though less well studied, league should offer greater potential than a Real Madrid v Barcelona game, where you are looking for your edge along with literally millions of people.

I think I've talked myself into a new set of Elo ratings.

Red Faces

After what seems like forever, the top European leagues were back in action this weekend, with the usual mixed fortunes for the Friendly Tipster League entrants.

Reviewing the table in top down sequence as of last week, we'll start with the Extended XX Draw selections. After 13 winners from 17 selections in late September, the Half-Time 0-0 winners stopped abruptly, and they then went 17 matches without a single winner. The rot stopped with Palermo v Torino (a perfect draw) and the good news was that the first half goals didn't prevent the Extended selections overall from finding five draws from eight selections this weekend.

There were two Bundesliga selctions, Werder Bremen v Moenchengladbach ended 4-0, which is about as bad as it gets, and Hamburg v Stuttgart which finished 0-1 for a profit overall, but losses on the Match Odds and HT0-0 markets.

Premier Betting had a poor weekend with neither selection paying off. Wigan Athletic failed to win either half at Swansea City, and Arsenal couldn't score in either half - never mind both halves, as was the selection.

Neil's selections showed a small profit, finding the draw in the Sunderland v Newcastle United match, which more than offset the selections of the Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea draw and Everton to win at Queens Park Rangers.

Tony's Away Lays saw five selections, one winner (the lay of Arsenal) but a loss on the weekend and dropping into the red.

Premier Edge had as bad a Saturday as it gets, with four losses from four selections, but as tends to happen, on Sunday he found two winners from two - Both Teams To Score at Sunderland, and the Under 2.5 at QPR v Everton. Overall a loss though, and Premier Edge drop below the break-even line too.

CKL Selections also dropped into the red with a couple of midweek World Cup Qualifier losses, although the weekend selections reduced the loss slightly.

Little Al went for three outside draw bets, but Liverpool beat Reading, Manchester United beat Stoke City and Norwich City beat Arsenal so he remains in minus territory.

Football Elite had three recommended bets, all Draw No Bets, and Ajaccio v Bastia finished just that. Genoa v Roma was the second pick of the weekend, and  This game was also an Extended draw pick, but with the U 1.5 market trading at 7.0, it probably shouldn't have been! The market expected goals, and got them, with more in the first half than in any other Serie A game today. Genoa led 2-0, before losing 2-4. The third selection was Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid, another XX Draw selection (Classic this time) and a painful loss on this one as Atletico scored in the 89'.

Another profitable weekend for Pete Nordsted's Drawmaster selections, with one of three (Sunderland  Newcastle United) ensuring a small profit, and down but only a small amount after a bad start to the season.

The Free Under / Over picks found two losers this weekend, both selections were Over 2.5, and were Fulham v Aston Villa (1-0) and Ajaccio v Bastia (0-0).

The XX Draw (Classic) selections were profitable, with Queens Park Rangers v Everton finishing 1-1 after a game with a deflected (and very early) goal, an own goal, and a sending off. The second selection was Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid which I mentioned before, but a 0-1 result did at least mean profits in all but the Match Odds draw market.

Football Formbook had one winner and two losses for an overall loss, and Jon (Talkbet) lost half a point on the weekend.

Backing Ian Erskine's 'Lay The Draw' selections continues to be a poor strategy which perhaps serves us right, and in the last two spots in the table is Griff, who failed to turn in his entries this weekend, but at leasts treads water.

Of the 29 categories, only eight are in profit, four of which are the XX Extended selections, which all suggests that finding an edge in football is not as easy as it might seem. Nine categories are showing a loss of less than 15% on ROI, and six are less than 3 points down, so all is not lost, but it's becoming more and more obvious that there are easier ways to make money betting than football.

The professional services are now in the red on the season, with Premier Betting up 3.95 points despite a bad weekend, but Football Elite down 4.15 points and on as long a losing run (6) as I can remember.

One curious anomaly is that backing the Under 1.5 goals market for the Extended picks is down 7.81 points,  significantly out of sync with the other markets for these selections. The U2.5 is up 11.4 points, and the U3.5 is up 5.55 so we must be due a few 1-0s or 0-1s for these selections!

The table is below - please bring any omissions or errors to my attention. Weekends get a little hectic, and mistakes may happen.

Fog City

It doesn't always work, oh wait, where have I read that before...

Again, it was close, 13-6, and I'm confident it was a value play, and so long as you are finding value, in the long run, you will win. In the end, it was another tax write-off. I did win small on the Tigers who beat the Yankees, but missed the San Francisco (Giants) game as I was watching the San Francisco (49ers) game. Very poor scheduling in my opinion.

The win by seven points was actually much discussed pre-game on the Betfair Forum. Someone posted:

I'm no mathematical wizz when it comes to odds differences, but surely 1.8s on -7 pts and 2.0s on -7.5 pts is too big a difference?

Seven is, of course, a key number when it comes to betting on the NFL, second only to the three, so what seems to the novice to be a big difference in price between two almost identical scores, is in fact mathematically correct.

More NFL games are won by 3 points, than by any other margin, followed by the 7 point win. As it happens, Andrew from Betting Expert recently wrote an excellent piece on key numbers in the NFL. Well worth a read, and after reading, you should understand why there is a big difference between 7 and 7.5.

Some of you are probably reading this, and wondering if there are key numbers, and what the commonest winning (margin of victory) is, for the NBA. I'll let you ponder it for a few days.

I actually had a play on the horses yesterday afternoon, not in an attempt to win money, but just churning some over. Five races, a small profit of £19 as it happened, but as sports go, it's really doesn't do much for me. No wonder it's dying a slow death.

Einstein James Dean

It doesn't always work, but the Jazz did have a chance to tie with a two, or win with a three at the end. Clippers won 96-94. Laying low is the way to go, and one upside of being a VIP and 'fortunate' enough to pay 50% of profits is that it is strangely liberating. Win, and that's always good, but lose, and it's a tax write-off! At least if you time it right.

Less than two weeks to go before the real NBA season starts, but these pre-season games have had more liquidity than I can remember. Of course, last season there was a very limited pre-season due to the labour dispute, but I'm hoping it augurs well for the new season.

The market seems to think it's a three way battle between current champions Miami Heat, vanquished finalists Oklahoma City Thunder and the Los Angeles Lakers. I could be wrong, it happens sometimes, but why the Lakers are shorter than the Thunder is a little surprising to me. The Lakers have added an ageing Steve Nash, and if he recovers fully from his back surgery, a great center in Dwight Howard, even if he has yet to grow out of the god thing, but even so.

Before he was drafted in 2004, Howard said that he wanted to use his NBA career and Christian faith to "raise the name of God within the league and throughout the world"

Why the Christian god you may ask? Well, by a strange coincidence, it turns out that his parents are also Christians! - what are the odds on that I wonder?

In 1989 Billy Joel wrote "Brooklyn's got a winning team", and while the Nets are unlikely to win a championship any time soon, Brooklyn does have a team again for the first time in 55 years.

It was a little surprising to see a Tweet from the great Mark Iverson which upon further investigation, revealed that someone claims not to have heard of me. Seriously!

Anyway, Leo Attwood (@leosattwood) asked Marky "who's this Cassini character mate?"

Webbo at BetfairBanter had posted:

Here are my current top 10 sports betting related people (in no particular order) to follow on Twitter:

which included (although I was a little hurt not to be in the number one spot):

@Calciocassini (Cassini) – Doesn’t tweet much but his Green All Over blog forms a big part of the betting community.

@markyiverson (Mark Iverson) – Expert Cricket Trader. Managed to withstand multiple Cassini attacks.

Multiple Cassini attacks? A little constructive criticism is my preferred term.

The Cassini v Iverson post is the eighth most popular Green All Over post out of 1430, but unlike the US Presidential debates which are currently tied at 1-1 (with the momentum all for Obama [1.43 atow]) there was only ever one winner in the Cassini v Iverson debate.

Pole Position

My sole bet on the World Cup qualifiers yesterday was a punt on my Italia to beat Denmark at 1.5, and they duly obliged 3-1 with little trouble. I'm sure most of you saw that the draw traded at 1000 as Germany led Sweden 4-0 with 30 minutes left, before Sweden came back and tied it at 4-4.

Pre-season NBA this morning, and if there is any time that loves the drama of the big game, and all the attention, it is the Los Angeles Lakers. What they are not so good at is motivating themselves to the less 'showtime' games in their calendar, and pre-season exhibition games are as meaningless as they come. 

Three days ago, the Lakers played the Utah Jazz and lost, so why were they so short again this time? Ah yes, it's the name. I really must record the statistics on this, but it seems like the Lakers are almost always too short pre-game. 1.4 for a small amount, but more at 1.49 and 1.5. Again, who is backing at such low odds, in a meaningless less game, on a team who frankly just don't care about the result?

Anyway, here's my result, as the game was dominated by Utah by all accounts. 114-80!  (I get a little more relaxed about stakes when I'm up on a week with the Super PC all but guaranteed).

Another event I didn't actually watch, but was pleased to see the price movement on, was the second of the US Presidential Elections. As I had hoped and expected, President Barack Obama was a lot more assertive this time around, and the price on re-election is down to 1.42. 

It'll be interesting to see the next polls, but only those from the 12 states where the election will be decided. It's easy to see a poll from Texas showing Romney with a 90 to 10 lead, but Texas is a lost cause anyway. (If you've ever been there, you'll know what I mean. And if you haven't, don't bother).

I also picked up a small win on the Detroit Tigers as they opened up a 3-0 lead in their ALCS series versus the Yankees, who look a beaten team.

For the record, I have backed England to win in Poland at 2.16 on the theory that a 24 hour delay doesn't warrant such a big drift from the 1.99 on the first date.

Peyton's Place

Another example of why the NFL is the second best trading sport in the world. The final game of Week 6 saw the San Diego Chargers trade at 1.06 before the second half had even begun. Perhaps not surprising since they held a 24-0 lead at home, and only five teams in NFL history had ever overcome such a big deficit on the road. But the Chargers are notoriously good at giving away apparent victories, (think back no further than last week), the Broncos had the ball first in the second half, the Broncos have reduced deficits in three games this season already, and so a lay of the Chargers seemed like a good idea. Did I mention that the Broncos have a certain Peyton Manning? Once again, as I wrote in my recent Peaking Early post psychology plays a big part in some of these in-play decisions. 24 points is a big lead, but again, it was possibly too early in the game. Chargers players start to lose focus, and just want the second half to be over, while the Broncos have nothing to lose. Anyone who has played sport knows the feeling.

Temptation

And so the lay turned out not to be my worst idea ever. Cassini's not as stupid as he looks (which was a great relief to my Mother, I am pleased to report). The Denver Broncos became the sixth team in NFL history to win on the road after trailing by 24 points or more, and won the second half 35-0. It was also TV's Monday Night Football show's biggest ever comeback I believe.

While I don't disagree that 1.06 can be value, I just can't understand who the people are who are prepared to back at such prices with so long to go in a game. Long may they continue to do so though. The best case scenario is you win 6 for your 100. Nothing wrong with that, but the downside, to my mind, far exceeds the upside in these situations. Breaks change things, and anyone thinking the first half momentum would continue is naïve to say the least. The Chargers head into a bye week, and this game is not one they will want to dwell on for thirteen days.

It seems that the Super Premium Charge kicked in a week later than I thought. Looking at the portal, the old 20% has gone, with that depressing red tick now hitting at 50%. I'd better find some losers for the rest of the week!

The game clashed with the baseball, so I missed out on a rare Giants post-season home win as they tied their series with the Cardinals, which at least guarantees another game in that series, but I think I made the right choice. The Giants never trailed, and I like some volatility in my trading.

Other teams coming off a bye week are the top football teams in England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain.   While I love the finals of the World Cup or the Euros, I really can't get too enthusiastic about the early qualifying games. This time next year I might pay a little more attention.     

Silver Lining

While pondering whether the right move in the US Presidential Election market is to top up or lay off at 1.55/1.56, or do nothing, I came across a reference to a book called "The Signal And The Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't". Written by Nate Silver, author of the respected fivethirtyeight blog, and first mentioned on this blog in November 2009 in a post on Benford's Number, Nate made his start in baseball statistics before moving on to politics.

Reviews of his latest book include that it "is easily the best book about statistical forecasting yet written for the average reader" - at least according to Walter Hickey of BusinessInsider.com. One for the Xmas list perhaps.

One review mentioned "how desperately we seek data that confirms our predilections - and how easy it is to find" - something that may be more relevant in politics than sports. While the dangers of backing our favourite sports teams is well known, it seems more than likely that this is perhaps overlooked in politics. It's certainly far easier to make sound trading decisions on a game between two teams you care nothing about that it is on politics, or 'our' football team.

Perhaps it is fortunate that opportunities to back our personal favourites in politics come along far less often than our sports teams.

The New York Yankees v Detroit Tigers game has just wrapped up, and it was another ninth inning thriller. Actually it went into twelve innings, but the bottom of the ninth was where the Yankees pulled back a four run deficit. Earlier, the Yankees had left the bases loaded three times, a first for that team in post-season history, but the key statistic to know going into this game is that during the regular season, the last three innings of the teams' 10 meetings were not good for the Tigers, who were outscored 24-10. Pre-game I'd posted on the Betfair Forum that I was:

Backing the Tigers in this - no rest day for the Yankees, and they had to use CC Sabathia last night. They're too short at ~1.72.

...but while I would have done better financially to let the bet run, the lay after six innings made the win a little less stressful. 

The NLCS starts tonight, (St Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants - the last two winners of the World Series) but on an NFL day it'll be hard to choose which game to trade. Liquidity in post-season baseball is pretty decent. On Betfair anyway. BETDAQ? Not so much.

This is a season for the established franchises, with the four remaining teams all in the top eight all-time list of World Series appearances, as Nate Silver could have told you.   

Peaking Early

A lead of six in some sports may not be much, but it's useful in tennis and not bad in baseball. 6-0 was the lead the Washington Nationals held after three innings versus the St Louis Cardinals this morning, and off the scale as far as my baseball bible (The Book - Playing The Percentages in Baseball) is concerned. This was game five of the series, tied at 2-2, and the worst thing about a big lead early on, is that it's early on. Plenty of time for a comeback, and who can honestly expect players to give their all when comfortably ahead? It's human nature to start looking forward to the next round, in this case a series against the San Francisco Giants, but it happens in many other sports too. Perhaps it happens in politics as well!

A small amount traded as low as 1.02, not a 1.01 'gubbing' as someone on the Betfair Forum claimed, but decent amounts at 1.03 and above. You can guess the ending by now. The Cardinals scored one in the 4th, 2 in the 5th, 1 in the 7th and 1 in the 8th to make it a 6-5 game, before the Nationals added one more in the bottom half of the 8th, and take a two run lead into the ninth innings. Just three outs needed, and with two down and one to go, they blew it. The Cardinals tied it up, added two more, kept the Nationals out in the bottom half of the ninth, and that was all she wrote for the regular season's best team. Defeat snatched from the jaws of victory, and a lot of 1.0x backers wishing they'd stayed in bed.

Back to politics, where there is a saying that a week is a long time. It's been a little over a month since Obama was at 1.47 to win the election, and has traded since then as low as 1.21. Unfortunately the first debate performance was a little weak from Obama, and he is now up to 1.55, based I imagine on a poor poll in key swing state Florida. Two more debates to come and just 24 days to go.

I was also fully braced to pay the new Super PC this week, with the portal reporting Total Charges at 20.04%, but I must be missing something as there was no deduction this week.

The Super PC portal does state:

As of 01 October 2012, had you always incurred Premium Charges at 50%, you would be considered to have generated total charges of £222xxx.xx which is equal to 72.2% of your lifetime gross profits at this time. Therefore, you will not incur Premium Charges until you have won at least £137xxx.xx.

Which is a little confusing. I have won at least £137k. Does it mean that I need to win at least 'another' £137k or what? Anyway, whatever the reason, I'll take the break and hold the wolves at bay for another week at least. I can almost feel the enthusiasm flooding back.

Vagaries

Some clear winners in the Friendly Tipster Table this weekend, with Pete Nordsted picking up a hat-trick will all three Drawmaster selections as Liverpool v Stoke City finished goalless. After finding just two winners from the first 17, Pete finds 3 in a row. The vagaries of probability. Going into Saturday, 13 of the previous 17 Extended XX Draws had been winners in the HT 0-0 market. One week ago I wrote:

The Extended Half-Time 0-0 bet is proving to be quite a gem. With an average price of 2.94, the strike rate on these is currently 28 of 57, and a profit of 25.76 points. 24 of those 28 went on to finish Under 2.5.

Perhaps I should have kept quiet. As we all know, these things tend to even out in the long run, and the last eleven selections have not seen a single 0-0 at half-time. This is still the best bet in the XX Draw 'arsenal' but some of the gloss has come off as the ROI has dropped to 24.29% from an admittedly unsustainable 45% last week. The losing run on the Classic draws was  stopped at 11 as Brest drew 1-1 with Bordeaux, but Newcastle United v Manchester United didn't come close.

Football Elite had three selections this weekend, all Draw No Bets, and came up short with two losers and one no bet. Matt had two of my draw selections, Sochaux to beat Rennes, and Newcastle to beat Manchester United, but both lost at home, while Hannover '96 scored in the 86' v Borussia Dortmund to at least ensure a refund. But Peter's successes this weekend kept the 'Professionals' in profit. The slip by Dortmund was Tony's one ray of sunshine, as the strategy of laying away favourites continues to struggle. Still 1.44 points in profit, but eight losses before the last winner of the day have hurt.

Jon (Talkbet) was a big winner this weekend too, opening with a loser, which put him at three winners from 25, but then out of nowhere, Jon finds five consecutive winners:

Three winners all season - then this!

Still in the red, but definite signs of a recovery.

Little Al eked out a small profit, picking the Liverpool v Stoke City draw, and Neil moved his selections into profit with the Southampton v Fulham draw, and lay of Liverpool, but he was another one who felt Manchester United were too short at Newcastle. Premier Edge had a profit too and move into the green overall, but Football Formbook and poor old Griff continue to struggle, with the latter occupying the bottom two spots.

The Liverpool v Stoke City game attracted a lot of interest this weekend, with the general consensus being that once again Liverpool, at 1.52, were too short. As last week, I agreed, and this time the result, while in itself proving nothing, went the way of those opposing Liverpool. I had them priced at 1.8 for this one.

Reading comments on this game was interesting. On the one hand you have the guy quoting that Stoke haven't won at Liverpool in 49 attempts, to which the responses included:

So they're definitely due a win so. Posting stats like that is meaningless. Spurs didn't win at OT for 23 years before last weekend.

or the more poetic:

But in 99% of those attempts, Liverpool were a top club. Now they are a steaming pile of dog excrement, so past history may not be so important now.

Indeed, the importance some people place on the historic head-to-head record between two teams is quite amazing. Teams change so much even in one year, that even a recent game is often pretty much irrelevant, never mind matches going back to the Dark Ages.

Anyway, there is more to life than football, and for those of you who read this blog carefully, you no doubt did very well on last night's WNBA game between the Los Angeles Sparks and Minnesota Lynx. I wrote on home favourites just this Saturday that:

The trick is knowing when this resistance will collapse, but it certainly isn't mid-way through the second quarter when the lead is just ten. 

Which was exactly the situation in the Sparks - Lynx game, a curiously prescient Cassini in top form. Pre-game odds-on favourites Sparks were down by 10, mid-second quarter, and trading at 2.32. There wasn't enough money to fill your boots exactly, but enough to fill my Crocs as the Sparks closed the gap and at one time went on a 17-0 run to lead by 13. In the end, the Sparks lost this game, but traded in the 1.0s so there was no excuse for anyone not pocketing a nice profit. Lynx move on to the final. The worst part of the Lynx win was that the best-of-three series is over. For the second season in a row, these games are proving to be quite lucrative. At least the final itself is a best of five series.

The NFL was as interesting as ever last night too. The late game saw the San Diego Chargers traded as low as 1.1 when it appeared they had taken a 17 point lead in New Orleans, but they hadn't, and the Saints went marching on for a come-from-behind win 31 - 24.

A couple of comments on the multiples of three post yesterday. Sports Betting Bloggers noted that the initial letter of Cassini is amazingly the third letter of the alphabet, while upandathem questioned the wisdom of highlighting this phenomenon, saying:

Don't think you should have posted this,if the significance of the number 3 becomes common knowledge is there not a great danger that bookmakers will cease to exist?

I am tempted to do a Rick Ford and delete the post, but as a service to bookmakers everywhere, I shall leave it up for discussion.

Today's thought for the day from the Betfair Forum is this:

well actually match odds dont change that much during a game unless there is goals

Flowery Theory

Harris went to an awful lot of trouble to send me the following analysis, and it seems a shame not to share it. [I have taken the liberty of making some corrections where the meaning is obvious, as English is clearly a second (or perhaps third would be more appropriate) language].

My name is Iosifidis Charalambos or more easy for you Harris. I am from Greece. I am 25 years old and I love football and betting also.

At the age of 11, I moved to Cyprus for 8 years. I started betting at the age of 13 on football and like my father I was losing. But in Cyprus I met a Greek friend that was crazy for bets and football like me. This man was fascinated by Greek mathematician Pythagoras he showed me a different method of betting. This kind of betting method is something like you are hunting history repeats! So I want to share it with you and my story also.

Pythagoras believed in the number 3 he told one day to his students that number 3 shows the past the present and the future. So Paulo the Greek friend thought what will happen if we take the multiples of 3 ? Let me show you the power of multiples of 3.

3-6-9-12-15-18-21-24-27-30-33-36-39-42-45-48-51................
MULTIPLES OF 3 SHOWED ME IN 2010 THAT HOLLAND WILL GO TO FINAL 3RD TIME AND 3RD TIME WILL LOSE THE FINAL.
IN 2010 ALSO MULTIPLES OF 3 SHOWED ME THAT INTER FC WILL WIN THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE.
AT FIRST I ANALYSED ALL TEAMS THAT WAS IN COMPETITION THE ONLY TEAM THAT SHOWED ME MULTIPLES OF 3 WAS INTER FC AND I HAD BET IT FROM THE BEGINNING. HOW DID I FIND IT.
INTER FC HAD WON THE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE IN 1965 SO IN 2010 BEFORE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE EVEN STARTED I CALCULATE 2010-1965=45 YEARS BEFORE SO IF YOU TAKE THE MULTIPLES 3-6-9....36-39-42-45. 45 IS MULTIPLES OF 3.
NOW LET'S GO TO 2012 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE WINNERS CHELSEA BEFORE THE FINAL I CALCULATED THE PAST YEARS. MULTIPLES SHOWS ME THAT CHELSEA WILL WIN.
HERE IS THE REASON
1974 Bayern Munich – Atletico Madrid 4-0
1975 Bayern Munich -Leeds 2-0
1976 Bayern Munich –St. Etienne 1-0
.
1982 Aston Villa – Bayern Munich 1-0
1987 Porto – Bayern Munich 2-1
1999 Manchester United – Bayern Munich 2-1
.
2001 Bayern Munich – Valencia 1-1*
2010 Inter – Bayern Munich 2-0
2012 Bayern Munich – Chelsea ….. ?
LIKE YOU SEE BAYERN PLAYED 8 FINALS AND HAVE WON ONLY THE 3 OF THEM AND HAVE LOST 5 FINALS SO THE NUMBER THAT IS TIME TO MOVE IS 5 LOST FINALS TO BECOME 6 AND MULTIPLE OF 3.
ALSO BAYERN HAD PLAYED 3 FINALS WITH ENGLISH TEAMS AND HAD WON ONLY 1 FINAL AND HAD LOST 2 FINALS WITH ENGLISH TEAMS SO THE NUMBER THAT WAS TIME TO MOVE WAS 2 LOST FINALS WITH ENGLISH TEAMS TO BECOME 3RD LOST FINAL WITH CHELSEA.
ALSO WHEN IN 2012 CHELSEA-BARCELONA MET I ALSO CALCULATED THE HOME SCORE 1-0 AND THE AWAY SCORE OF CHELSEA AT BARCELONA 2-2.HERE IS THE REASON
IF YOU LOOK AT THE HISTORY HEAD TO HEAD YOU WOULD SEE THAT IN 2006 CHELSEA WON BARCELONA 1-0 AND AT SPAIN BARCELONA DREW WITH CHELSEA 2-2 ALL THIS IN 2006 SO IF YOU MAKE 2012-2006=6 YEARS BEFORE 6 IS A MULTIPLE OF 3.
I HAVE A LOT OF EXAMPLES THAT I CAN WRITE A WINNING BOOK FOR BETTORS WITH MY METHOD.(Euro 2012 I won all correct score results)

Now multiples of 3 like you see in big football events like Champions League, Europa League,Euro,World Cup works perfect but in leagues like Spain / Italy / France I started to make a record of multiples of 3 and after that I sent it to a friend that has a very good algorithm that wins 99% he advised me that multiples of 3 in plain leagues that they don't lose but also they don't win a lot.

So he told me to add filters he told me to add Poisson+Elo rating system+neural netword+Kelly critirion + my multiples of 3. The results are amazing when all this different methods says a game home win then I have the unbeatable game for example last game Aston Villa played at home with Swansea Elo rating system predicted home win neural network predicted home win Kelly criterion predicted home win Poisson predicted home win and mine multiple of 3 predicted home win and the result was home win for Aston Villa ft.
Now my point in all this is because I am new in keeping records and I am new in all this different methods Elo,neural, Kelly, Poisson that I take from websites and maybe some websites tomorrow or in future will close and I want to have my own systems.

I really want some help for example how i am going to make my own Elo rating system and how I am going to make my own Poisson system.

Also I am a florist in my job so I don't know a lot of things from mathematics :)

I would be very thankful if you could help me send me for example a guide step by step or an Excel form with instructions so I can make Elo rating system and Poisson system. I don't have any idea were to start from because I just have started here and 5 months using Excel and more Open Office so please if you can help me I would be very thankful.

I am wishing you all the best thx for your time.

I can only suggest that Harris check out my series over at Betting Expert which gives an introduction to Elo ratings and Poisson.

Soon after that, I was looking at an upcoming trading conference, and came across this four hour session for just US$245.

In this four-hour intensive, Carolyn Boroden will show you how she uses Fibonacci ratios on both the time and price axis to pick the best stock/ETF candidates on the long side or the short. She will discuss her three primary trading set-ups, which are outlined in her book, Fibonacci Trading. These trade set-ups can be used for outright stock/ETF trading/selecting but also work beautifully with options strategies. She will illustrate how the markets can be set-up for swing trades and also how this same methodology can be used for daytraders. The work in this intensive will focus on actually setting up, in real-time, current market set-ups.

Well, I've certainly noticed that the number three shows up a lot in baseball. Three bases, other than home base, three times three players per team. Three teams per match, including the umpires. Three outs per innings. Three times three for nine innings per game. Three strikes you're out. And yesterdays AL Divisional Series games saw the winner score three times as many runs as the losing team! There could be something in this. Both of today's games start on an hour that is a multiple of 3 - the AL game at 12pm EDT, the NL game at 3pm EDT. Coincidence? I think not.

I wasn't quite so aware of the number's significance in football, but Harris may have stumbled on something. Look at yesterday. Manchester City 3-0 over Sunderland. Other EPL teams scoring three were Arsenal and West Bromwich Albion, who some of you may notice have THREE words in their name. Coincidence? I think not.

The first five EPL games all went Over 2.5 goals, so the final one (West Ham United - three words in their name again - Ars-en-al - three syllables - get the idea?) doing the same was obvious. Why Peter was wasting his time earlier in the week doing boring old 'analysis' to identify the same thing beats me. Get with the program Peter. Just wait until 5 o'clock and see what's due.

Outside of the EPL and Burnley scored three, but it wasn't enough because they were playing at Sel-Hurst-Park (three syllables). In the Championship, which starts with the third letter of the alphabet. Coincidence? Well, you know what I don't think.

And interesting that the champions of Europe, and FA Cup holders, are Chelsea, whose name begins with that 3rd letter of the alphabet - 'C'. League Champions - City...  And the League Cup was won by Liverpool - L is letter 12 (multiple of 3 anyone?) of the alphabet, and who did they beat? Cardiff City - not just one three there but two. (No wonder Palace lost in that semi-final!).

I could go on, and many of you may be thinking I already have, and for far too long, so I shall call it a post.