Advantage Heat

The Miami Heat Rebound strategy continues to pay dividends and thanks to Dags for letting me know that at least two people have made money from following this. 

The line for the latest game was remarkably low, with the San Antonio Spurs favoured by 1.5 points so Miami could have covered the spread but lost the game. As it happens, there was another double digit win for them in line with their record in these games. The Heat were 1.85 to cover, which in hindsight looks a steal with the market overreacting to the blow-out win of 36 points in game three. Once the game is lost though, there's no point in expending effort in reducing the loss, and the large margin should have been largely discounted.

With only two or three games left in the 2012-13 season, we can only have one more of these at the most this season. Home court advantage is back with the Heat, and the series will be won in Miami who are now 1.42 (70%) to do just that.