Weak One

We are up to seven in the FTL 2013-14 competition, with probably a few more to come. Opening weekend in France and Germany saw just me and Scatter Gun competing for cash, with Football Elite in their as an amateur - in the 'not eligible to win money' definition of the word.

After week one, nothing much to write home about. The conservative Bundeslayga selections lead the way, in line for a first prize currently worth £168.75. The XX Draws started off in superb style with a 1-1 draw between Montpellier and Paris St Germain, but after that it was all downhill.

Including newly promoted teams hasn't been an issue before, but this weekend saw a few unexpected results with them, none more than Hertha Berlin's 6-1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt. Eintracht Braunschweig came close to a perfect draw, holding Werder Bremen until the 82nd minute, Monaco were held until the same time at Bordeaux, and the final newly promoted team Guingamp were 0-2 down after 4 minutes of their opening Ligue 1 game. Rennes and Reims was also a late loser with the game level at 1-1 as late as 84'.

Scatter Gun found two winners (games ending 1-1, 2-1 or 1-2) for an opening day loss of 3.2 points, and Football Elite also selected newly promoted Eintracht Braunschweig, picking them to win.

Next weekend we will have Punter's Friend and Peter Nordsted's Drawmaster and Premier Betting selections also going for the money. Although the FTL uses fixed staking, Peter will be recommending variable staking for a fixed return 'because of the prices'.

I must admit I am a little confused by one method should have any advantage over the other. At evens, it makes absolutely no difference at all, and little difference around that price. If your edge is on odds-on selections, you maximise your profits by using variable staking, but if your edge is on longer odds, you are better off with fixed staking. The problem is that if your edge should turn out to be negative, the laws of mathematics mean that your losses increase by following that strategy.

Anyway, Peter is good with recording results to level stakes, but it will be interesting to compare results with a variable staking method.

Here is the table after week one. The excitement will heat up from next week :)

The XX Draws have been sent for the four leagues in action next weekend.

SportsTradingLife had a post on trading football, and in the in-play section had this to say:

With in-play football trading you will definitely require a good knowledge of the sport itself. If you can watch the match live and spot opportunities this is good but usually you will also have to consult match stats websites to give you a better idea of what positions to take in-play.

The problem I have with this simplistic comment is that unless you can spot opportunities that others can't, you have no edge. Inside information it is not, if everyone else has it. The prices in-play are accurate - if the starting prices were accurate. And with football, there are a lot of eyes watching the game along with you. There's nothing wrong with having a little confidence, but a dose of reality is healthy too. Football is a very tough sport to trade in-play profitably.

XX Draw subscribers will know that I am noticing some pre-game movements that are interesting. Early days yet, but pre-game trading to me offers far more potential than chasing profits in-play.