Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.
Thursday, 5 September 2013
Fog Clears
There's an excellent post on the Wallpapering Fog blog about the big part that luck, or probability, plays in the outcomes of football matches. If you never understood why "two hypothetical teams which are exactly identical in every way and take an average number of shots each, will only draw 27% of the time" read this article. There is also some good information in there for anyone looking at creating their own football model. Webbo has signed up for the FTL, which makes 12 entries and more to come, which in turn means that prize money now pays out down to fourth place. Good news for Peter Nordsted as things stand with him holding second and fourth places.
The NFL is back tonight, historically my third best trading sport, with its twists and turns providing plenty of opportunity for trading. It's one of those sports where the leader is often backed down too short in-play, and where greed is so often followed by fear. Not so much matched on the opening game as previous seasons, but there's usually decent liquidity on games when there is just the one in-play so let's hope for the best. Here's a post from early in the NFL season a year ago with some links you may find interesting over at Betting Exchange, even if they are a preview of last season.
when's the last time we can join, I don't usually start betting til we've at least a couple of months of results. Are there rules as to how many months need to be bet in or when the first bets should be in/
I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
when's the last time we can join, I don't usually start betting til we've at least a couple of months of results. Are there rules as to how many months need to be bet in or when the first bets should be in/
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