Fog Clears

There's an excellent post on the Wallpapering Fog blog about the big part that luck, or probability, plays in the outcomes of football matches. If you never understood why "two hypothetical teams which are exactly identical in every way and take an average number of shots each, will only draw 27% of the time" read this article. There is also some good information in there for anyone looking at creating their own football model.

Webbo has signed up for the FTL, which makes 12 entries and more to come, which in turn means that prize money now pays out down to fourth place. Good news for Peter Nordsted as things stand with him holding second and fourth places.

The NFL is back tonight, historically my third best trading sport, with its twists and turns providing plenty of opportunity for trading. It's one of those sports where the leader is often backed down too short in-play, and where greed is so often followed by fear. Not so much matched on the opening game as previous seasons, but there's usually decent liquidity on games when there is just the one in-play so let's hope for the best.

Here's a post from early in the NFL season a year ago with some links you may find interesting over at Betting Exchange, even if they are a preview of last season.