Surprising News

It was something of a surprise to learn from Brian (of Betting Tools) that I am coordinating another FTL next season:

Great news that you’ll be carrying on the FTL next season.

I will? I’m not sure where this "news" came from, but there has been little enthusiasm so far for another edition next season. There has been some interest, but to make it worthwhile, we really need some kind of sponsorship, and I suspect obtaining that again will be a challenge. I think we over-achieved in the fund-raising area last season, and while circumstances might yet change, it looks unlikely that the FTL will be back next season.

Brian continues with:

I’m thinking about making some tipsters tips hidden in my tipster table and wondered whether you might like to have your xx draws monitored here?

It would be a good advert for them without revealing the selections themselves and you’d just need to send them me and I’d do the rest.

Reading between the lines, perhaps Brian is volunteering to coordinate the FTL next season?

Rob Noble-Eddy writes:

I tend to agree with your comments about only getting involved where you think you have an edge, but surely the barrier to becoming an expert trading some sports markets is much lower than for financial markets. And if you're taking a sensible approach then it doesn't have to cost a lot to test a strategy and determine, in a statistical sense, if it's positive expectation value.

I don't disagree with your sentiment, but I'd rather encourage people to have a well considered attempt rather than not bothering at all.

The keys here are ‘sensible approach’ and ‘well considered’. The issue I am trying to highlight is that in-play betting is rather seductive giving the impression that there is easy money to be had. There usually isn’t.

While someone, not sure who, once said that paper trading isn’t worth the paper it’s written on (primarily because no real money is risked, and thus no emotions are involved), trading live with small sums is, in my opinion, a much better idea. It’s only when you move from theory (paper) to practice that you discover any number of previously unconsidered problems (timing, pricing and sizing challenges for example). From personal experience, trading Corn Futures worked brilliantly using charts and paper – not so brilliantly when live.

This financial market based article espouses the merits of paper trading, and the comments on making good decisions and patience are particularly relevant.

I would add that it is important to recognise when an idea is flawed or perhaps loses its edge, but as Rob says, dreaming and optimism are good traits – just keep them real. A small bet on a game certainly adds a lot of interest, as MLB have recognised. 

On this topic, if fantasy sports betting is your thing, check out this app developed by a couple of "sons of a friend". They have the major US Sports added - (American) Football, Baseball and Basketball (pro and college) and I think Golf is on its way.