It may be slightly premature, but the next round of the EPL in two weeks time sees a potential title decider as the current top two face off at Selhust Park on September 12th.
It's rather an oddity that only one London Premier League club (Crystal Palace themselves as it happens) has won a home game this season with lesser city rivals Arsenal (L,D), Chelsea (D,L), Tottenham Hotspur (D,D) and West Ham United (L,L) all win-less in their home matches.
The decline in EPL home advantage I wrote about at the start of last season continued last season, where blindly backing Away sides to win would have made you 9.29 points on the 379 matches Pinnacle Sports priced following 19.30 points from 2013-14's 380 matches.
Having said that, a more profitable 'blindly backing' strategy in the EPL would have been that of backing the underdog which was +54.69 points over the last three seasons, with each season profitable, and a strategy that would already be in profit by 26.14 points this season
Early days yet, but Away wins in the Premier League are off to a flying start this season with a 42.5% strike rate and +30.48 points. Only seven teams have won a Home game while 13 have won on the road.
About Me
- Cassini
- I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability. The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years later I was able to make a steady profit.
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