Swansong

Many of you should be familiar with the term ‘Black Swan’, defined by Investopedia as:

…an event or occurrence that deviates beyond what is normally expected of a situation and is extremely difficult to predict; the term was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a finance professor, writer and former Wall Street trader. Black swan events are typically random and are unexpected.

It was the first thought that came to mind when James notified me yesterday that CEO Big Pairs had deleted his blog. At least it was my first thought upon regaining consciousness having fainting from shock at hearing this news.

I mean, who saw this coming? And I am told his Twitter account has gone too. Warning: Do not search Twitter for "Big Pairs" if your other half is around. I had rather a shock at some of the results, and some explaining to do when I was caught examining them closely.

While I hate to say that James and I were right about this character, James and I were right about this character, and not for the first time, others weren't so right:

"Really enjoy the honesty!" CEO of a multi-billion dollar organisation? Really?

What the motivation was for the tall tales remains a mystery, but as I mentioned in my last post, there is a lot of nonsense out there in the sports betting / trading blog world, and while some of you may feel his vacuous posts were harmless enough, they were at best misleading, at worst downright irresponsible. The truth is that making a profit from sports betting is  not easy. Suggesting it's a viable career is dangerous.

In my opinion, full-time sports trading was never a viable career option. Perhaps ten years ago it might have been tempting, but there was always the likelihood that markets would mature and edges would vanish. The implementation of the Premium Charge in 2008 was another clue that the golden days weren't sustainable, so who does the idea of "turning pro" appeal to these days? (By turning pro, I mean giving up a job. I'm not talking about the unemployable people who bet - or talk about betting - because they have no options in life, and little money to lose anyway). 

The answer should be no one. 

Don't get me wrong - as a hobby and a second income, I think betting / trading is great, but if you have the skills to make a steady profit from betting then, if you have any ambition, you could be doing far better for yourself, your family and your future in a 'proper' job.     

In the end, my prediction made on August 31st took less than seven weeks to become a reality:

Credit to the author for posting these losses, but I have my doubts that the second incarnation of this blog will last much longer.

James had an excellent post about Big Pairs here, but this comment alone should give pause for thought:

As James suggested, there’s a high probability that Big Pairs will be back, so watch out for Large Couples or Top Twins or something along those lines.

And now I have to update my blog roll again.