Splendid Isolation *

I had a couple of comments on my last post, one of which was from Marty who wrote:

I read Webb's blog and found that 'pretty unique' quote interesting to. I was wondering how he knows how unique he is...

I think I'll make it a New Year's resolution to stop reading his blog. I don't mind reading waffle to find the occasional nugget, but I can't recall a nugget there.

Peter's reason for blogging isn't that he is interested in sharing any nuggets, but in making money. His blog promotes his software and his trading classes, which is quite reasonable for him to do, because it's his business.

Sales of either are not going to be promoted either by giving away nuggets, and thus obviating the need for his services, or by telling the truth, which is that trading is a zero sum game, with most participants eventually losing. Far more profitable to say how easy it is without explaining how it is possible for everyone to be a winner. 

I also find some inconsistencies there, for example we go from having a unique trading ability to the latest post containing the line:

My confidence was lifted with a really good trade to start.

Does anyone else see something rather strange about that statement, coming as it does from the greatest sports trader the world has ever known?

The second comment was sent privately but if you want any confirmation that Peter's blog is merely a store front, look at how often his posts link to, or reference, other trading or betting blogs, or how often a comment appears there. Isolationism has long been associated with insecurity and the challenges of posting a comment there was first discussed back in February 2013. A couple of comments from that post are worth repeating here as nothing much seems to have changed. For example BigAl wrote:

Most of the entries I have read on the Betangel blog are written in riddles, presumably designed to generate interest in his product.

While WhyAlwaysMe commented:

Clearly there is a problem somewhere because there are never any comments on Peter's blog. It would be great if it could move to a moderated format like Cassini has done.

Turning to the financial markets, and Peter's self-serving approach is similar to that of Active Fund managers not telling you that you have a 99% probability of doing better by investing in Index Funds than with them. They make their money from people having an unrealistic expectation from Active Funds.

According to the analysis, 99 per cent of actively managed US equity funds sold in Europe have failed to beat the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, while only two in every 100 global equity funds have outperformed the S&P Global 1200 since 2006. Almost 97 per cent of emerging market funds have underperformed.

As with many things in life, caveat emptor, and don't believe the hype. If a blog is linked to a product or service, it is unlikely to be impartial or completely honest about likely results.

* Splendid Isolation - Warren Zevon