Making Up For Deficiencies

Robbo the trader suggested that:

Whilst you and snidey James pontificate 'it can't be done' traders like Peter and Caan rake in in the dosh, kerchinnnng.

I'll let James respond first before I add my thoughts. James replies:

Whilst the acolytes work themselves into a frenzy over the latest post or video by Sir Peter or Sir Caan, Cassini and Snidey James (I thought it was Sydney James, nevermind) don't say "It can't be done" they say, "It is not as easy as Sir makes you think it is."

We (and other realists such as Joseph Buchdahl) tell the truth about betting and trading. Others create an illusion for you to lap up because their real incomes depend on you being taken in by the simplicity of what they say.

I don't see any real evidence that either of them trade that much. Do you have such evidence?

It's Big Pairs again. If I owned a 7 figure software subscription business I wouldn't waste my time sports trading.

Obviously, trading is not that easy otherwise you wouldn't have posted your comment. You'd be getting it quietly.

As James states, no one has ever, at least to the best of my knowledge, stated that "it can't be done", but in this era of court-siding, I am of the opinion that trading tennis is about the unlikeliest place where a novice is likely to find an edge, and where even more experienced traders will struggle to break-even long term competing at such a disadvantage. 

If Robbo, Webby, Caan or anyone else can come up with any kind of logical reasoning explaining how a long-term advantage can be obtained in a market where others have a significant advantage, I'd love to hear it. 

A comment from a Steve on Caan's own blog back in July 2014 pretty much sums up my thoughts:

You’re all acting as if these are unchartered waters, tennis is one of those sports that is probably more automated than any other with plenty of teams botting the markets using very sophisticated stats based software. Surely the recent courtsiding legal issues should have shown you that.

The markets are very efficient and driven by probabilities, stats dictate what the prices should be, overall they earn the operators fortunes by being more informed than the majority. Of course there are chinks in their armour and they’re happy to leak a few quid here and there on the basis the majority will pay it back with interest. Just don’t go in assuming because you’ve come out on top in a few markets you’ve cracked the tennis because you can be pretty sure someone’s put in a lot more effort to crack it.

Interesting that Steve's comment was the final one on that post, as if everyone reading it suddenly realised how silly they were. Well, at least for a few minutes. 

As for whether Webby or Caan are 'raking in the dosh' from trading tennis, only they know. That Webby hasn't mentioned the Premium Charge in over five years may be a reflection of a reduction in trading activity in general, and if Caan's making money, he's not acting very maturely with it:

So its been a while since I treated myself to a new car.. In fact I seem to do it once a year and you may remember a couple of years back I bought a pretty sporty Astra which was pretty new at the time, it managed to cost me a small fortune in the space of a year so I got rid of it. I want a new car now although, I don’t want the same happening to me again. I like cars although haven’t much of a clue whats best to be looking at so I thought some of you might be able to help me out!

Ideally I want to get a new Porsche Cayman GTS although with a near on £60,000 price tag its going to have to wait as the money will be better spent on getting a house and living rent free initially. In the mean time though I wouldn’t mind a change. Currently im driving a BMW 325 which I actually rate quite well, excluding the fuel consumption that is. I have to drive a considerable distance each time I have my son so long-term it’s not a great idea, plus I’d like something a little more sporty. I think its important to treat yourself every now and then too as it boosts that motivation to kick on…

Admittedly Caan is very young, but if buying a new car every year is what it takes to "boost that motivation to kick on", I'd seek professional help. From the always reliable Daily Mail:

The old adage goes that a man driving a big car is compensating for something - and according to the latest research, there might be some truth in it.

A new survey asked sports car drivers, as well as their partners, about the size of their nether regions, and - as expected - they got wildly different answers.

The results seemed to suggest that people who buy big, flashy cars are indeed making up for deficiencies in the trouser department.

Perhaps, but buying a new car is a waste of money in my opinion. Buy one that's a year old, that has taken the depreciation hit, and still has a warranty and thousands of miles ahead of it.

James suggests that "Obviously, trading is not that easy otherwise you wouldn't have posted your comment. You'd be getting it quietly" and there's a lot of truth to this idea. 

In my experience, mature, successful people in general tend not to feel the need to tell everyone about how successful they are. 

When was the last time you saw an ad for Rolls Royce? It's not a coincidence that when selling a 'product' related to gambling, an expensive car, exotic location, big house and swimming pool seem to be 'must-haves', which speaks volumes for the target audience I guess. Hinting at a few hot babes throwing themselves at you surely can't hurt either:

Back to James' comment, and of course it makes no sense for Webby to waste his time trading when the money to be made is in selling software. It makes sense to write about how impossible it is to lose when using that software, but there's an opportunity cost to actually trading, especially if you have been successful in the past and have reached Super Premium Charges.

I am heading out for the evening now in my brand new Koenigsegg CCXR Trevita now to get wasted with a few expensive girlfriends, before returning home to my villa, where after a quick swim in my pool, I shall turn on the TV and trade the Australian Open.