Closing Prices

Following on from Chris K's comments on the League Two Away trend, here are the updated numbers for the season's with Pinnacle's Closing Prices through this weekend, which incidentally added another 5.42 points to the total:

On the subject of using Pinnacle’s Closing Prices (PCP), I noticed that Trade On Sports Paul Finn is not using them in his records.

‘Officially’ down 29.40 points this season from 218 games, an ROI of -13.49%, when calculated using PCP, the loss increases to 30.18 points.

The results from the Russian Premier League can't be verified as the league is not covered by Football-Data.co.uk, and if we exclude these matches from the results, the 'official' P and L is -47.92 and against PCP, is -48.70 (from 199 matches), and ROI of -24.47%, which means that Paul has a big edge in Russia, a smaller one in La Liga, and a negative edge everywhere else.

The days of services arbitrarily picking their recorded odds should be behind us, but it’s interesting that the recorded price on winning bets beats Pinnacle's Closing Price 72% of the time.

This could be because Paul's Draw selections are driving the price down, although how long this effect might continue as the losses mount, remains to be seen.