Saturday, 30 June 2018

La Liga Draw

Another top league, and as you might have guessed, another league where backing the Draw blindly isn't a good idea. A loss of 144.84 over the past six seasons when trying this, an ROI of -6.4%. We lost one match due to no prices, leaving a sample size of 2,279. 
Excluding matches where the 'true' Draw probability is 0.25 or lower will save you 110.39 points, while excluding matches where one team has a win probability of 0.4 or greater will save 88.9 points.

Using the relative difference in win probability between the two teams works well in this league, with the Draw in matches up to the 25% level generating an ROI of 8.81%.
When the Big 3 (Atlético Madrid, Barcelona and Real Madrid) play each other, backing the Draw is profitable +9.97 points. When the Big 3 play the Small 17, backing the Draw would have lost you 74.78 points. 

Looking at other derbies, the Galician Derby has an ROI of 16.1%, although there won't be one next season following Deportivo La Coruña's relegation.

The Sevilla Derby has an ROI of 9.6%, while the Basque Derby with five Draws in the 12 contests has a rather impressive ROI of 50%. When the other Basque clubs (Alavés and Eibar) are included, the ROI drops to 10.6%.

If anyone has any other leagues that they are interested in, let me know. If Joseph Buchdahl's Football Data website has the numbers, I can plug them into my spreadsheets easy enough. 
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3 comments:

  1. Leon1 July 2018 at 06:36

    Hi.
    What odds you use in your reserch? Opening or closing?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Leon6 August 2018 at 19:07

    Hi, Cassini. Just love your blog.. Found it a few weeks ago and enjoying every second of reading it..
    How you calculate the relative difference in win probability between the two teams?
    In La Liga I have 177 selections (in the same period) up to and 5% difference (and you have 60). Can't understand why..
    Will appreciate your answer.

    ReplyDelete
  3. bm112511 August 2018 at 18:25

    Thanks for sharing this info. I checked 24 derbies across Europe (Spain, England, Italy, France, Portugal) from the last 3 seasons and found only 3 of them had negative returns. The most profitable bets derbies were madrid ( 147%), liverpool - everton ( 83%), arsenal - tottenham (88.5%) derby county - nottingham forest (98%), norwich -ipswich (183%) , paris - marseille (94%). It does make sense because I guess does derbies brings a lot of money into either sides and fans usually don't like to back the draw. On the other hand I think, this is still only 4-8 matches per derby.

    It does fit Sumpter article on pinnacle though https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/part-one-magical-betting-formula/ZBR2XMV32BCQ76U4

    ReplyDelete