Le Draw in Ligue.2

While there have been few Draws in the EPL since the hiatus, we did find two more winners this weekend in the "Close" and "Toss-Up" categories, although the official 2.95 for Burnley v Sheffield United was the shortest Draw price of the season.

Above are results since the return, and below overall for the season to date:

The Total line is for all seasons from 2000-01. It's also good to see that Pinnacle's over-round since the break has dropped slightly to 102.6% and note that the results above are adjusted to a 103% over-round and as a consequence are slightly worse than would be achieved in practice.

I also finished off the numbers for Ligue.2 this season, and they are presented below:

The problem with this league is that the average Draw price is so low. Overall the average price is 3.29, but in Close and Toss-Up matches it is just 3.05.

In the EPL since 2012, the respective averages are 4.28 and 3.34. 

While the percentage of matches ending in a Draw is consistently higher in Ligue.2 versus the EPL (see below for 2012-20) this is understood by the market and the prices offer little value.