The Lost Notes of 1937

The Junction, fka The Wheatsheaf

Working on one of the side projects I mentioned last Sunday, I came across this reference on the topic of home advantage, or more specifically of crowd impact, from October 1937 when it was announced in the Surrey Mirror that:

Mr. F Judd, of Watford, is coming to speak at the next meeting of the Branch [Surrey Society of Association Referees] at the Wheatsheaf Hotel on Friday next, October 8th. The meeting will start at 7:30pm, sharp. as Mr. Judd has a long journey to make. it should be a highly interesting meeting, for Mr. Judd is just entering upon his 26th year of active refereeing in various classes of football. He is the retiring chairman of the West Herts Referees' Association. His subject is particularly interesting, "the effects of the crowd on the game".

Indeed, and I was rather excited to find out the details of this talk, but sadly three weeks later, the same correspondent reported that:

Some notes which I understand were sent me regarding the referees' meeting at which Mr. F Judd spoke on the effect of the crowd on the game, appear to have gone astray, so I must just record that it was a satisfactory meeting and proved very edifying, not only to the referees themselves but also to a number of visitors. Incidentally, the referees are still waiting for a spectator to speak to their January meeting on the effect of a referee on the game, and if one does not materialise soon, Mr. Bish. the Hon. Secretary of the branch, tells me he will have to fill the date with some other subject.

The attempt at humour did little to ease my disappointment at missing out on Mr. F Judd's insights. It may have been a satisfactory meeting, but the loss of notes from it is anything but satisfactory when you're prepared to go to these lengths to find an edge. 

The NFL continued to be lucrative this weekend with the two Small Road 'Dog selections - Detroit Lions and the Cleveland Browns - not only covering the spread, but winning outright. Officially the Browns were a +4 selection, but I had them at +5.5 before they shortened, which is always a good sign. 

The 2.08 on the Lions was also a nice bonus. The season record for this system is now 29-19-1 and as of today, we look to have ten more selections this season before the expanded play-offs begin.

No "Toss-up" EPL Draw selections again, and although this system doesn't generate too many selections at the best of times, with only four so far, it's certainly behind schedule. 

In the meantime that 65.7% ROI looks impressive even if it will ultimately drop, although usually this system ends the season in positive double figures as shown left. 

The NBA is back, with pre-season games starting this week, which will make the weekdays a little more interesting. The 2019-20 season saw the rate of increase in points per game slow down, increasing by just 0.5% from 222.4 to 223.6. Up just 0.3%, the number of possessions also remained about the same as the previous season, but the number of 3-point attempts increased by 6.6%. Of course, the regular season wasn't completed, but 86% of matches were played so using these numbers isn't too much of a stretch. Backing Overs in games where the total is greater than 224 points looks like a good place to start the season.