Thursday, 4 November 2021

Overt, Abrupt and Abnormal

The subject isn't about my personality, although I've been described as all three at some time or other, but was triggered by an interesting observation from Larry regarding the NBA Points Total System this season. He noted:
Numbers definitely down and here's some stats after 2 weeks into new season which may interest you.

Fewest number free throws per game in modern era of NBA

Lowest offensive efficiency number since 2014

Lowest 3 point % since 2003

Lowest field goal % since 2000
I can't say I am totally surprised at these numbers because as I wrote in an email on October 21st regarding the season:
One area to keep an eye on, and which may slow - or even reverse - the steady increase in points scored, is the NBA's rule change concerning fouls on shots.

The rule change I was referring to was the one implemented ahead of this season to:

discourage offensive players from making "overt, abrupt or abnormal non-basketball moves"
Essentially, NBA referees will no longer reward offensive players who launch themselves into defenders. 

While we are only a few days into the season, the rule appears to be having more of an impact than I was expecting.
Nine points fewer per game than last season. Almost half of those are from 'lost' free-throws and the reduced 3-point percentages Larry mentioned easily explain the rest. 

Rather than adding 10 points to the previous season's average, it seems this season we will need to subtract a few, but the whole premise behind this strategy over the years has been that the public is slow to adapt to changes in the game, and shy away from previously unseen totals. Now that points are in decline, that edge isn't there, since the public is by now used to totals in the 220's. 

Of the 10 matches so far this season with the highest Totals, eight have gone Under. Until the market catches up to the impact of this new rule, it would seem logical that Unders will be value. Sadly without Killer Sports, it's not easy to verify this but this blog is about giving you ideas and doing your own research, so good luck if you run with this one.  
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1 comment:

  1. weirimdi6 November 2021 at 01:14

    Hello,
    long time reader, but only my first comment. Thx for all the work you put in, i learnt a lot from your experiences.
    I have been working together with the killersports plattform a while ago and been active in several subgroups and worked with a lot of people from the core group.
    So i think this will be quite interesting for you. killersports as you know it may not exist, but there is a subsite formed by other members which continues the SDQL format.
    So far it is in beta testing and hopefully will catch up to the painful emptiness that killersports aka sportsdatabase left us with.
    http://gimmethedog.com/
    i have used it for test purposes a lot right now and it looks solid, but shortcuts we are familliar with may not work from the get go. it looks promising.
    if there are other things i may help with, feel free to ask.
    cheers.

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