War and Draw

Obviously, there are far more important things going on in the world this week than investing, but the reality is that life for most of us will go on pretty much as usual. 

The final of UEFA's Champions League has, not surprisingly, been moved from St Petersburg to Paris and it's crazy to think that the host nation of the 2018 World Cup is currently attacking the country and city that staged the Euro 2012 Final. 

Russia and Ukraine are both in the play-offs for a place in the World Cup Finals this year, but following yesterday's UEFA meeting, clubs sides from both countries will be required to play their home matches at neutral venues. FIFA meet this weekend to decide on the fate of the national teams. Should they both qualify, FIFA's draw for the Finals could be a little complicated.

As I wrote last week, it was a quiet weekend for betting with no EPL game coming close to being a Draw selection, and of the ten matches played, just one - West Ham United v Newcastle United - finished level. 

Midweek saw one "Close" selection which was Watford v this season's Draw specialists Crystal Palace, but for the first time in six games, Palace were unable to provide followers with a Draw, though at least one person was happy about that. The ROI for "Close" matches drops to 33.9% on the season.  

There should be a selection tomorrow with the Brentford v Newcastle United game currently a qualifier, and Brighton and Hove Albion v Aston Villa one to monitor.

UEFA's club competitions continued this week and the success of Away teams in the second leg of all-square ties continued with both Red Bull Leipzig and Barcelona winning. 

The conventional wisdom is that following an Away draw in the First Leg, the Home team will finish the job in the Second Leg. Of the 218 matches since 2004 where I have prices, 116 were won by the Home side, which is just 53%. Away teams win about 26% of the time, (27% following a 0:0, 25% following a score draw), but the value is on the Away team with an ROI of 11%.

As you might suspect, there is also value backing Away teams who had a comfortable Home win in the First Leg. It appears that Home sides facing an uphill battle give up a little easier than the market estimates.

This Sunday sees the League Cup Final in England, with Liverpool favourites to beat Chelsea. Of the 17 finals for which I have prices, the favourite has won 10 with 6 Draws, and backing the Draw has an ROI of 39% from this small sample. The edge is even greater when no club has a win probability greater than 0.5 (at fair odds), as is the situation for this game.

If we include FA Cup Finals, 5 of 11 matches meeting this rule have finished as Draws.

Finally, in the NBA, the All-Star game on Sunday saw a total of 323 points, which was right around where the books had the total. The record points total in these exhibitions remains the 374 points scored in 2017. Team Lebron won the game by three, just failing to cover the -5.5 points they were giving, but this isn't my kind of event for investing.