Segunda División Draw Review

It was a good start to the NFL weekend with the Indianapolis Colts (+3) winning a low scoring game at the Denver Broncos last night, and another win for Unders on a Thursday Night.

Thursday games over the past two seasons (which includes the traditional Thanksgiving Day games) have gone 16-7 to the Unders.

Dr Tsouts commented after the football this past weekend:

3 weekends in action for Bundeslayga and my record for 1st division is 9-4 and 36% ROI but 2nd division is struggling with a 6-9 record and -29% ROI. The pleasant surprise though is Segunda Division draws with 24% ROI after 22 selections. Still early days but it's a better start comparing the La Liga draws.

Backing the draw in Spain's Segunda División (second tier) isn't the worst idea in the world. Blindly backing this result in the Pinnacle era (since 2012) and you'd have lost just 1.62% of your stakes which, in a market overround of 102.9%, suggests there's an opportunity.

As always, backing the Draw at higher odds is a losing proposition and by eliminating these, the loss is reduced to 0.62%. 

In the EPL, the Draw has a Fair Price of less than 3.0 in just 6 of 8,437 matches, i.e. it is an extremely rare event, and the Draw has never been favourite.

There's quite a contrast in the Segunda markets where the Draw has had such a Fair Price 441 times in 4,687 matches, and was actually favourite in 107 matches. 

This can partly be explained by the lower number of goals per game in the Segunda (2.32 v 2.68 in the EPL) but a league where some Draws are priced at odds-on suggest a competition where games are not always played competitively.

Dr Tsouts and others have suggested to me that this league is worth a look, and using some of the principles from the EPL Draw System, an ROI of 6.37% is very good, and would have been a lot better if not for the COVID impacted 2020-21 season!  

Note that the definition of "Close" differs from the EPL in this league, as does the time of the season when the system loses its profitability.  

I'll add this system to the "Sacred Manuscript" and send out an update with specifics to subscribers shortly, and if anyone else has a league or division worth looking at, let me know. 

Thanks to Dr Tsouts and others suggesting I look at this league.

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