Aztecs, Owls, Hurricanes and Huskies

I ended the last post with a few lines about the end of season College Basketball tournament colloquially known as 'March Madness' and following the weekend's Sweet Sixteen (Round of 16 for most of us) and Elite Eight (Quarter-Finals for most of us), the excitement level in my house has risen dramatically with my wife's hometown Aztecs reaching the Final Four (Semi-Final for most of us) for the first time in their history, and as favourites (~1.8) to win their Saturday game against the Florida Atlantic Owls, they have a decent chance of making Monday's Championship Game (Final for most of us). 

I take full credit for their success after betting against them in both rounds! Florida Atlantic were 500-1 to win the National Championship at the start of the tournament, and are a number nine seed. The seeding system is a little odd because they have four of each seed number, four number ones, twos etc., so being a nine means ranked approximately 33rd to 36th, and as the tournament's "Cinderella" team, most of the USA will no doubt be supporting the underdogs. The reason for the four seeds is that the tournament is divided into four 'regions' of 16 teams each, with each region having its own 1-16 seeds.

With several upsets already, the highest seeded team left is UConn (University of Connecticut Huskies), a number four seed, with the San Diego Aztecs and Miami Hurricanes both five seeds. UConn are the only team to have reached this stage of the competition before having played five times previously winning four of them, and winning all four subsequent Finals, which is quite impressive. With an average winning margin so far of 22.5 points, it's hardly a surprise that they are favourites to win the championship at around 1.87. 

We only have data for nine competitions starting in 2013 but in Final Four (Semi-Final) matches, a total of 132.5 has historically been pivotal. Back the Overs when the total is above this number, and Unders when it's below it, and you'd have a 14-1 record with one Push. The totals are currently set at around 132 (Aztecs v Owls) and 149.5 for the later Hurricanes v Huskies game. 

Since I want to stay married, I take more than a passing interest in the Aztecs games, although the Arkansas Razorbacks will always be my college team, and this season the Aztecs' strength has been their defence. For example, in the Quarter-Final game they played Creighton who had previously averaged 77 points a game this season, and held them to 56 points.