Saturday, 22 July 2023

One Mountain and a Funeral

Life returns to normal after my Dad's funeral on the 7th, and a heartfelt thank you to those of you who took the time to send your condolences. With my Mum passing away during COVID and its restrictions on gatherings at that time, in a way the funeral and wake this month were for both of my parents.

We still have the internment of my Dad's ashes in North Devon to come with the logistical challenges of obtaining permission to lift the existing stone, add the engraving for my Dad, and then trying to find a time when most of the close family can be available, which is not easy with three children, eight grandchildren, and now eight great-grandchildren following the arrival of my first grandson - Jaxon John - whose middle name, like mine, is my father's name. I'm sure my daughter felt no pressure whatsoever to include it!

My wife and I enjoyed our trip to the Lake District and while the weather prevented us from hiking to the top of both Scafell Pike and Helvellyn which was Plan A, we did manage to ascend the former on Thursday 13th July which was a beautifully clear day. As I had climbed Helvellyn as a 16 year old 50 summers ago, missing out this year wasn't a tragedy, and we'll try again although Ben Nevis next year is the top priority, health permitting. We also walked 12 miles around Derwent Water in somewhat inclement weather, but it made for a nice pre-climb warm up. 

I made a conscious decision not to look at investments while I was away, but the spreadsheet updates on my return this week were mostly positive. Tesla's share price stumbled on Thursday but it's had a good year to date up 111%. My Bitcoin FOMO investment has also done well in 2023, up 140%, and overall year-to-date I'm up 11%. I still need an almost 6% gain to take out the high of April 20th, 2022, but things appear to be headed in the right direction.

My employer's share price is still down on the year, but its Q2 results were good and at least my options granted in February are now in the money. Retirement, and a lucrative severance remain elusive, although my weekly meeting with my manager started off positively yesterday with his news of a major restructuring.

Unfortunately, the smile on his face suggested that this wasn't going to be a conversation involving a severance package for me - conversations which are typically held on Thursdays late in the month anyway - which would have been wonderful, but instead the size of my team, and the associated responsibility, increases with now 49 people and an additional line of business under me. It looks like I'll be working for another few months at least, but it's all good. 

As I've mentioned before, I'm full-time working from home and it's not exactly demanding most of the time. And when the worst that can happen is you get made redundant, well at my age, that's a positive outcome.

As for sports betting, that too has taken a back seat over the past few weeks. The Women's World Cup is underway, and although the data only goes back for seven tournaments (Euros and World Cups) starting in 2009, as with the men's game, the Draw in knockout stages is worth a look.

The 65 knockout matches have only a small edge (1.1%) when blindly backing the Draw, but in matches where the fair-priced favourite is not odds-on, the return is a more interesting 22%, and from the Quarter-Final stage is 42%. Small sample sizes of course, but something to consider once the group stage is wrapped up.

I also missed the MLB All-Star game this year, and there are a couple of systems in the Sacred Manuscript that are related to this event, one for games leading into the break, and one for after the break. One subscriber at least was paying attention, writing that:
Glad I remembered to play these!

And again it was the Saturday which delivered nicely.
After another profitable weekend, the ROI on this is now 10.1% from 1,247 bets and only three times in the past 15 seasons has this resulted in a loss. 

As for the post-All-Star game system, this was also a winner again this year adding 8.63 units from 30 bets, and taking the ROIs for the Money Line and Run Line bets to 13.3% and 13.7% respectively since records began in 2004. 

I'll be looking at baseball over the next few days and updating the Sacred Manuscript as a couple of readers have reached out. 

1 comment:

  1. I want to share my condolences here, I lost my father during COVID and he was just enjoying retirement at the age of 68. I know it sounds like a often used term in these circumstances: I really hope your father had a good life and you and your loved ones get through these hard days with love and the help of each other.
    Best wishes

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