Rugby World Cup

I briefly mentioned the Rugby World Cup in my last post, and as with the Basketball World Cup, backing the Draw is not a recommended strategy, although as with football, in the later stages it gets a little more interesting.

This Rugby World Cup is the tenth, and of the 377 matches played at the time of writing, just six have ended as Draws. Three were in Group (or Pool) games where the Draw was the final result, one was in a Semi-Final (Australia v South Africa in 1999) and two were in the Final (South Africa v New Zealand, 1995 and England v Australia in 2003) with those elimination games going to extra-time. 

The true odds on the Draw should be around 62-1 but good luck trying to find that price available.

Unfortunately I only have prices going back to the 2011 competition, and there have been no Draws in the 21 elimination games since then, nor in the three Third-Place (or Bronze) matches for that matter.

Excluding these meaningless Bronze matches, of the 15 shortest favourites, just one (New Zealand v England in 2019) lost, while of the six weakest favourites, only one has won (Australia v South Africa in 2011).

The New Zealand loss is the only time in 14 matches when a team from the Southern Hemisphere has lost as favourites. 

A strategy of backing favourites priced at sub 1.44 and underdogs otherwise in elimination matches has an historical ROI of just under 48%.