Springboks Off a Bye

The Rugby World Cup moved to a five-team Pool Stage in 2003, meaning that one team would have to be given a bye in each of the five rounds of matches. While I've written before about a bye not always being beneficial going into play-offs, in a physical sport such as Rugby Union, a bye week before the knockout stages might well be considered advantageous, allowing players an extra week to recover from their knocks and bruises, so it would seem fairest to give the final bye week to a team which is almost certainly not going to advance. Non-Tier 1 teams in other words.

Of the 24 such allocations, most of theses do for this pattern with the likes of Namibia (3 times), Japan (3), Fiji (2), Georgia (2), Russia, Romania, USA, Portugal, Canada, Chile, and Samoa being allocated this final bye week. None of these countries have ever advanced so far as the Semi-Final.

Italy were given a week 5 bye in 2003, which leaves six other times when a Tier 1 nation has been given this possible advantage, and not to be a conspiracy theorist, but the three nations involved are all from the southern hemisphere's Rugby Championship - South Africa (3), Argentina (2) and Australia. 

Neither Argentina in 2003 or 2019, nor Australia this year, advanced to the Quarter-Finals, but South Africa have advanced on all three occasions, which would also be the last three World Cups including the current one, and always as a Pool B participant too. Someone at World Rugby clearly likes South Africa!

In 2015, a rested South Africa team beat Wales 23-19 as 1.36 favourites, and four years later they beat host nation Japan 26-3 priced at 1.16. How advantageous was that extra week of rest? 

Today they are underdogs at around 2.42 to beat host nation France and these odds look good value to me.   

While the wins yesterday for Argentina and New Zealand were good for the bank, it's unfortunately set up a rather one-sided Semi-Final next week, with New Zealand around 1.14 currently.