Snowdon Summer Solstice Update

As mentioned in the previous post, this month has been one of parties and holiday, spending money and gaining weight rather than one for investing and dropping pounds. During my trip to Snowdonia, I went on (what is billed as) the fasted zip line in the world, and was quite pleased at the number displayed as I weighed in.

Unfortunately, it turned out the number was kilograms and not pounds and at the current exchange rate this means I'm looking at another negative month in this area. My wife and I did hike to the top of Snowdon and back again on the first day of Summer which would have burned a few calories, but this positive was more than offset by almost three weeks of enjoying life. And no broken leg on this hike which was a positive! 

The NBA playoffs wrapped up while I was away, with the Golden State Warriors winning their fourth title in eight seasons. Followers of the NBA Overs System will know that the traditional strategy ran into the problem of having very few selections with the rules changes made in the summer. The usual approach meant backing Overs in games where the line was set above 234 points, and while this strategy would have been profitable, there were only 80 selections all season.

After monitoring the impact of the rule change, in January I advised backing Overs when the total was set above 223 points and in 2022 the ROI on these has been 2.9% from 371 games.

After a rare losing mid-season month in May, backing Hot MLB Favourites looks to have returned to profitability this month, although we still have a few days to go. July will be interrupted by the annual All-Star game on the 19th, but other than the outlier of 2016, it's usually a strong month.

With the universal adoption of the Designated Hitter rule for this season, and likely for every season moving forward, (baseball purists will not be happy), I've not been investing in the Totals yet in matches involving National League teams. For the Overs system, this has saved me 8.8 units, while on the Unders it has saved me a whopping 31.7 units. Following the Totals system in American League matches only would have resulted in a very small profit of 1.8 units from 108 bets. With not much else going on these days for sports investing, I may take a look at the numbers so far this season over the next few days. 

May Not The Best

Backing Hot MLB Favourites in mid-season has been a long term success story as regular readers will know. Excluding the delayed and abbreviated COVID season of 2020, only twice (June 2015 and July 2016) has this strategy failed to return a profit in a single month, yet this month looks like being the third. 

Mid-season means the months from May to August, but backing these favourites at the start and end of the season is also generally profitable. 

Unfortunately after the Los Angeles Dodgers loss on Monday night, we're looking at the worst mid-season month since July of 2016:

Unfortunately, April also saw a loss, so including Sep/Oct 2021 we are on an unprecedented (since 2013) run of three losing months, and more than 10 units down on the season to date. Time to panic? Probably not. The loss is small, and the system remains profitable where selections are coming off a loss, so I'd say hang in there. Besides, the 'official' prices I use from Killer Sports are to illustrate the efficacy of a strategy and can almost always be bettered if you shop around.

Most of the big football matches for the 2021-22 season are now in the books, although the National League Playoff Final is to come this weekend. Only five of the last 18 have ended as Draws, and there have been two or more goals every year since 2011, so don't bet the house on a Draw. 

In the EPL, the Draws faded somewhat in the second half of the year as is usually the case. The "Toss-Up" selections finished with an ROI of 14.6%, which was in line with the long-term returns from these bets, and still just the one losing season since 2009-10:  

The "Close" selections finished with an ROI of 2.4% from 73 selections. 

Real Madrid's victory in the Champions League Final over Liverpool meant that just one of the three UEFA club finals ended as a Draw, but that's enough for a small profit. 

And in less than two months time, it'll be the FA Community Shield and we do it all again, with the bonus of a mid-season World Cup.

May was a bad month in the financial markets, although a loss of 1.16% almost feels like a win after a good finish and a recovery from 8.12% down on May 12th. Overall I'm now down 5.35% from my high, and down 1.57% year-to-date. 

Unless June sees a six figure gain, the quarter will be the first negative one since COVID hit in Q1 2020. 

Elon Musk hasn't been doing Tesla investors any favours with his plans to purchase Twitter and removing any doubt about the type of person he is by aligning himself with the US Republican party. 

I'm still up 1,106% on this investment which sounds great, but the stock has fallen 39% from its high which isn't so great. 

Overall I'm where I was in December 2021 so things are not terrible, although I shan't dwell too much on the fact that I've been working for five months and basically stood still.  

May was also a bad month for calories, the month ranking 19th out of 20 since I started tracking these, and with the expected weight gain. Poor excuses include two work trips during the month, some big football matches and a couple of birthdays which interfered with my usual routine. The alcohol consumed during these activities has its own calories of course, but worse seems to be the additional calories from eating bad food when my ability to make smart decisions is impaired. I never seem to crave a healthy salad after beers; it's always fried chicken and chips or equivalent! There seems to be no way to cheat the scales unfortunately. 

June is unlikely to see much improvement either. After a trip to Los Angeles for an 80th birthday party this weekend, I return for an even bigger 95th birthday celebration (for my Dad) in Kent the following weekend, after which I'll be spending a few days in Snowdonia with my lucky wife. The thought did cross my mind to attend the funeral for Graeme Dand on Monday 13th and show my respects but as it's on the morning after Dad's birthday party, there's unfortunately no way I can get up to Dundee in time. 

Given the activities already planned, it's highly unlikely that my caloric intake will be anywhere near the under 2,000 a day needed to shed a few pounds. Oh well, there's always July!     

Play-Offs and Paris

When the Champions League Final is between clubs from different countries, it's historically not a good prospect, with just two Draws from the past twelve such matches. With a 66% ROI, backing the Favourite is the best option, with just one 'Dog winning. 

Liverpool are the favourites in Paris tomorrow, at around 2.09 and here are all the previous Final results since 2004:

There are also the two National League Premier Division Semi-Final playoff matches, where the Favourite (Home team) is not historically a good bet, unless no fans are present as was the case for the 2020 matches!

Usually the Home club has the theoretical advantage of being rested, but Wrexham played last week in the FA Trophy Final at Wembley losing to Bromley**. 

Wrexham host Grimsby Town (a repeat of the 2012-13 FA Trophy Final) and while some of you will no doubt be drawing parallels with Harrogate Town in 2020, the FA Trophy Final that season wasn't played until May of 2021, with Harrogate thus becoming the only Football League club to win the FA Trophy. Yes readers, you may laugh, but you never know when this kind of important information might come up at a Quiz Night and be the difference between a bottle of house white and a T-shirt. 

Solihull Moors play Chesterfield in the other semi-final, and in League Two, Mansfield Town are very slight favourites to beat Port Vale in the play-off final at Wembley. The favourite in these games has never been odds-on since 2004, but with Mansfield at 2.87, Port Vale at 2.93 and the Draw at 3.22 this is the most evenly matched game yet and the Draw price looks generous.

** Bromley were the first Wembley FA Amateur Cup winners in 1949. Should Bromley make it to the Football League in 2023, they will be just the second club to have won the FA Amateur Cup and the FA Trophy. 

Graeme Dand

Although we all knew it was coming, the news that Graeme Dand @theformanalyst has passed away today is incredibly sad. The fragility of life and the reminder that all that matters in the end is how we impact others in the way we live our lives. 

I never met Graeme in person, but as I've written before, he was the first person to comment on this blog back in 2008 and our friendship goes back even further.

Graeme was always friendly, encouraging, supportive, upbeat and positive, had a great sense of humour, loved his horse racing and - for a while - football betting, and wrote some of the longest posts in the history of blogs. He occasionally wrote some of the longest Twitter threads too and loved his Excel spreadsheets. 

Graeme showed incredible courage in the final few months of his life, and was a devoted husband, father and son and an inspiration to many of us.

Rest in Peace.   

Another One Bites The Dust

Trading legend Mark Iverson announced yesterday that after 12 years of full-time trading, the only laying he would be doing in future (at least trading related) would be the one-time act of laying his mouse down. 

Mark and I go back a long way, successfully co-hosting real-time trading sessions on a couple of NFL games back in September 2011, as Mark wrote at the time:

Overall, the first game covered in the NFL trading room received positive feedback. This is encouraging and although typing when trading can be distracting, I do enjoy speaking with others when a game is on. It makes you realise that there are other people who do this too! More good news is that I’ve managed to coax Cassini into covering another game next Sunday. So, if you’d like to take part then click on the link at the top of this page to register. The match in question will be the 6pm kickoff on Sunday (Buccaneers @ Vikings) which promises to be a close one so hopefully we’ll do well. As I couldn’t do this alone I’d also like to thank Cassini again for giving up his time, and it’s good to see he was able to post a fantastic result on Monday night with this result.

I'm somewhat in awe that Mark was able to make a full-time salary for so long, given that Betfair's Premium Charge has been with us since 2008, although in its earliest manifestation of 20% it was manageable. 

The writing was really on the wall when the 40% / 50% / 60% penalties were announced in June 2011. Although I still had a few months to go before I would pass the threshold of lifetime winnings and be eligible to pay this new tax, it was apparent that long-term winners were no longer, as the Betfair slogan used to say, welcome. 

By the time I reached the threshold in October 2012, I'd realised that the days, or more often nights, of in-play trading were over and focused my efforts on establishing a more sustainable betting style.

Full-time trading was never more than a fleeting thought. Although for a few years (2008-2011) my net income from trading matched that of my full-time job, I was only too aware that markets change, regulations change and with Betfair being the only viable exchange, I would be totally at the mercy of one platform.  Plus there were plenty of hours after work and at weekends when I could trade on the side, and a regular job isn't just about the paycheck itself. There are other significant benefits to full-time employment such as your pension, paid time off and gaining experience can pay off handsomely in the later years of your career as you move up the ladder with the pay / package differential getting larger between each rung.

Mark decided to go with being a full-time trader, hitting the 'super' Premium Charge threshold in May 2014. By December of that year he appeared to be questioning himself, writing:

2014 has been a year of 2 halves; the first 6 months contained a flurry of big events, big wins and record months whilst the second has been a story of grinding days out, living with increased premium charges and contemplating life away from Betfair. As we approach the beginning of a new year I’m probably more uncertain about what the future holds than I’ve been for some time. In short, things have become a bit of a struggle. Okay, I knew things were going to change, and yes it’s pretty much panned out the way I thought it would, but what I hadn’t fully appreciated was how much my motivation to keep going would come into question. Is it time to move on?

Mark was also the subject for one of this blog's all-time most popular posts back in 2012, a post that is worth reading if you've not seen it before, if only for the comments! Good luck in the future Mark, and credit for finding a way forward for another seven and a half years but I wonder how many full-time traders remain on the Betfair platform these days?  The Forum used to - at least on occasion -  be inspirational, and it's where I first became aware of the significance of psychology in betting and the related inefficiency of markets, but nowadays there's nothing that I see that's of interest. 

Mark is quite right in saying that the markets have changed. Even if I were interested in trading again, the money is generally not there these days to justify it, and it's apparent that courtsiders are everywhere these days and it's impossible long-term to overcome that kind of a negative edge. I'm old enough to remember when NHL and MLB games would have a decent amount of money for in-play trading, but it hasn't been this way for years. With the amount of time you need to spend trading in-play, it's just not worth the time. Bet-and-forget is far more efficient, and less stressful! 

Fortunately, while making profits slowly isn't as exciting, it is at least sustainable and with playoff games and Finals almost every day right now, it's an exciting time of the year for Draw followers.

The National League Regional Finals were played at the weekend and the strong recent record for the Draw in these matches continued with the Dorking Wanderers v Ebbsfleet United game ending 2:2 with the hosts equalising in the 10th minute of stoppage time before going on to win in extra-time.

Since 2013, the Draw in the North / South Finals has an ROI of 106% with 10 Draws from the 18 games (there were none in 2021):

The Europa League Final last week was also a winner for the second consecutive year with Rangers and Eintracht Frankfurt playing out a 1:1 Draw. At least one of you was on this one with me and hopefully many more.

The National League playoffs began with a Draw at Notts County yesterday, with another late equaliser as Grimsby Town tied the game up in after six minutes of stoppage time.   

Playoff and Cup Finals

It's that time of year where Finals and important matches come thick and fast.

Before my trip last week, I warned you all that in European Competitions:

For Second Leg Semi-Final matches where neither side has more than a one goal advantage, backing the Away side has historically been a terrible idea.

None of the five such Away sides won, so hopefully some of you were paying attention and either made some money, or at least saved yourselves from losing any. Liverpool did hold a two goal advantage, and were able to win.

With no favourites in any of the upcoming three finals currently at odds-on, backing the underdog in such European Finals is similarly not a great idea with only three of 21 managing wins, a strategy that would have resulted in a -54% ROI. Liverpool may well move to odds-on though before their Final versus Real Madrid, as they range from 1.98 to 2.08 currently. 

No winners this weekend for the EPL Draw System, with the ROI on Close bets now at 4.9% and for Toss-Ups at 14.7% for the season with just 28 matches remaining. 

The Football and National League Play-offs are underway, and in the Football League matches it usually pays to oppose the Home team at the Semi-Final stage.

The National League (Premier, North and South) is different, with the Home side usually value with an ROI of 9.9% from 148 matches, although at the Quarter-Final stage introduced in 2018, the small sample size doesn't yet reflect this. These regional matches start tomorrow but the National League Premier fixtures still have a round to go with the play-off final not scheduled until next month. 

There's also the FA Cup Final this weekend, with Chelsea making their fifth appearance in six years against Liverpool who haven't won this trophy since 2006. 

After starting as favourites in each of their last four finals, and losing three, Chelsea will be underdogs this time. For finals with no odds-on favourite, the results are:

Not a lot of goals as is often the case in finals, and with no more than one goal separating the teams in 15 of the last 17 finals the Draw at 3.8 looks like a value bet.

There's no place in the record books for fewest single goal wins in a top-flight English season with Crystal Palace following their first one goal wins away to Southampton with the same victory margin at home to Watford. As I wrote previously:

Crystal Palace missing out on the opportunity to match Darwen's 1891-92 season with no single-goal wins by scoring a stoppage time winner at Southampton. With two games remaining (v Watford and Manchester United) Palace do still have the opportunity to achieve the rare feat of going an entire season without a Home league win by said margin. 

Swansea City in 2013-14 remain the last club not to win a home top-flight game by one goal all season.  

Darwen, Tesla, Twitter and April Losses

No luck for the EPL Draw system this weekend, although two of the three qualifiers were level as late as the 86th minute and Crystal Palace missing out on the opportunity to match Darwen's 1891-92 season with no single-goal wins by scoring a stoppage time winner at Southampton. With two games remaining (v Watford and Manchester United) Palace do still have the opportunity to achieve the rare feat of going an entire season without a Home league win by said margin. The ROI on the Draw falls to 15.01% on the season. 

While there are still two-thirds of the year remaining, and much can change in that time, it does appear likely that the S&P 500 Index (US) might have a rare year in which it outperforms the FTSE 100 Index (UK). Of the 13 years since 2008, only one (2016) saw the FTSE come out on top but with April behind us, the S&P 500 is having its worst year since the market crash of 2008 when both Indexes saw losses in the 30% range. 

For me personally, April was the 135th best month of the 136 since I started tracking so closely, in real terms at least, saved from worst ever by March 2020 when the markets were in turmoil about the pandemic. 

In percentage terms April was the 129th best at -3.25% so not a lot to celebrate really. Tesla stock lost 19.9% during the month, with Elon Musk selling $4b worth of shares to finance his planned purchase of Twitter and my relatively insignificant Bitcoin holding lost 16.5% with Warren Buffett's comments this weekend at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting unlikely to help its prospects:

“Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said of cryptocurrency, as reported by CNBC. “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things.”

He also criticized the passive nature of bitcoin, saying that if he invests in apartments, they'll produce rent, and if he investments in farmland, they'll produce crops.

"If you told me you own all of the bitcoin in the world and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn’t take it because what would I do with it?" he said, according to CNBC. "I’d have to sell it back to you one way or another. It isn’t going to do anything."

Munger took a less measured approach, saying that "in my life, I try to avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad - and bitcoin does all three."

“In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero," he said. "It’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System and third, it makes us look foolish compared to the Communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China.”

Friday's losses mean that I am also now in the red year-to-date but by less than 1%. The net calories trend I mentioned last month - 1500 or fewer net calories a day and my weight goes down; 1900 or greater, and it goes up - was unfortunately reinforced after a month of too much eating and drinking and not enough exercise meant that my daily net calories averaged 2181 with a consequent guaranteed weight gain. 

As I mentioned previously, I shall be on the road this week for work which is never good for the scales with the company paying for my calories in and opportunities for exercise (calories out) limited but there is plenty of time left in May to get those pounds off. My employer made the decision to close my office location a couple of weeks ago, and so my working from home arrangement which has been unofficial since March 2020 is now official. This saves me several hours a week of course, and generally I've been putting the time to good use with 650 miles covered on foot so far this year, and the original target of 1,200 miles looking much too soft.  Back soon. 

Don't Go Away

The six UEFA tournament Semi-Final First Leg matches produced a small profit for backers of the Home team, with none of the ties looking to be settled, although the markets are predicting an all-English Champions League Final and all-German Europa League Final.

As I shall be away again next week, some comments on the matches next week based on data since 2003-04.

Liverpool are currently odds-on to win at Villareal in the Second-Leg, at the shortest price any Away UEFA Semi-Finalist has ever been. Away favourites don't have a great record so far, with just one of ten winning and none outside of their own country:

For Second Leg Semi-Final matches where neither side has more than a one goal advantage, backing the Away side has historically been a terrible idea. 

There have been 47 such instances, with the ROI on Away teams -49%, By way of contrast, Home teams have an ROI of 14% with the Draw at 20%. Of course it is worth noting that the rules have changed regarding Away goals, Home advantage is declining, and the sample size is still quite small, but it's nevertheless an interesting trend.

In this weekend's EPL, it looks like we will have three Draw selections in the 3pm Saturday games, with two currently Toss-Up qualifiers. 

UEFA Semi-Finals (1)

Another EPL Draw winner last night, with Crystal Palace and Leeds United playing out a perfect Draw, raising the season ROI above 15%. 

Someone on Twitter recently pointed out that Palace have yet to win a Premier League game by a single goal this season, and with five matches remaining, my research finds that should this remain true, it would be the first time this has happened in 130 years , since the 26 match 1891-92 season to be precise:

While not winning an Away game by one goal isn't that rare, not winning at Home by that margin has only happened on 15 other such occasions, excluding the two above. I'll spare you the details here, but let me know if you'd like the full list! 

The UEFA semi-finals start today, and England are again well represented with four clubs in the six matches. Spain and Germany have two each, while Scotland, Netherlands, France and Italy have one each. 

While this is the first season for the Europa Conference League, the data for Champions League and Europa League Semi-Final First Leg matches going back to 2004 shows a clear edge for backing the Home side with a 29% ROI from those 68 matches, a number which increases to 39% when limiting your investments to matches between clubs from the Big 5 Leagues. 

In all matches between clubs from different Big 5 Leagues (England, Spain, France, Germany, Italy) backing the favourite is historically where the value is with a 7% ROI from 573 matches, but when the two clubs are from the same league, the value bet is the Draw or the 'Dog.

Backing the Draw has an ROI of 11.7% from 83 such matches while backing the 'Dog has a slightly better 12% even, but what at first sight looks very exciting, upon closer inspection turns out not to be such a surprise after all, the reason being that all the profit comes from Finals where, as you all already know, the Draw is the value bet. We could see an all-English or all-Spanish Champions League Final and an all-German Final in the Europa League. The 'L' teams all winning their trophies would be rather poetic - Liverpool, Leicester and Leipzig.

Back to Champions League Semi-Final First Leg matches, and here is the record for Home teams starting at odds-on:

Without party poopers Chelsea as the visitors, a 100% winning record. 

Not that there have been any this season, or will be any, but in two leg matches between clubs from the same league, the value bet is to oppose the Favourite in the First Leg (ROI 17%) and back the Home team in the Second Leg - unless they are ahead - (ROI 38%). 

The Sting, Burn and Messed Up Thinking

April hasn't been the most productive month in terms of posts, with the distraction of a rare FA Cup Semi-Final appearance by my club, as well as travel opening up again for work which is great for air miles and car rental and hotel points, but disruptive to my usual routine. My next trip is in early May, one week from today, but despite the lack of new content, the number of hits is higher this month than last. 

A couple of comments on recent posts, which are always good to receive. On the topic of being able to bet on a result that is already known, Terry commented that:

Derek McGovern actually wrote about this in the early days of internet, you could get the results of matches and the bookies were still pricing them up a few hours later.

With new technology comes new opportunities, at least for a while. The film 'The Sting' from the early 1970s featured a similar strategy for horse racing using delayed wire transmissions, but I suspect opportunities these days are rather few and far between as technologies become ever more sophisticated. 

On the topic of the relationship between calories, exercise and weight, Simon M commented:

The book "Burn" by Herman Pontzer (the Associate Professor of Evolutionary Anthropology at Duke) published last year is very good on why exercise probably doesn't burn calories (like a car burning through petrol) yet is still healthy.

I thought the book was overlong (although I would still recommend if you are interested in the topic) but his appearances on free podcasts and magazine profiles do a good job of going through his research on exactly how many calories us (and our fellow mammals) burn.

Example: https://www.menshealth.com/uk/weight-loss/a39350294/dr-herman-pontzer-training-for-weight-loss/

I actually bought this book when it first came out, and can also recommend it. While 319 pages is quite a lot, if you're interested in this topic, and let's face it we all should be, it's well worth the time. Not surprising to read that amid mostly favourable reviews:

There have been two areas of pushback: one is people whose careers depend in one way or another on exercise being a great tool for weight loss; the other is the keto and carnivore bros, who don’t want to hear that we didn’t evolve to eat 100% meat.

Months with work travel are never good, and with the excesses around big football matches and the Tyson Fury fight, it's not looking like a losing month on the scales, with losses unfortunately currently being achieved on the investing front. We still have five trading days to go, but at the time of writing I am down 1.23%. 

A couple of Draws for Leicester City in the past few days mean that the ROI on the EPL Draw System now stands at 11.2% for the Close selections and 29.7% for the Toss-Ups. With just five rounds left, the two Merseyside clubs are keeping things interesting. Everton have played the most seasons in the top flight, and are the only 'Original 12' club still in the league never to have played outside of the top two divisions. They've been relegated just twice in their history but are now favourites to join Norwich City and Watford in relegation.

In March I mentioned that "In European competition, in Second Leg matches where the Home team has more than a one goal lead from the First Leg the value historically is on the Away team" and that "there is also an edge on the Away team when the First Leg was a Draw". 

Hopefully some of you cashed in with 6 of the 7 Away teams winning this month, and a 16.13 unit profit. The one losing bet was a Draw at 5.07 odds.

Of the other five ties, coincidentally all with the Home side trailing by one goal, only one result was an Away win.

One of the blogs on my blog roll is Bob Dancer's Gambling With An Edge. The world of Video Poker isn't an are of interest for me, but I enjoy reading some of Bob's thoughts and in a recent post he talks about how our reactions to profits and losses varies. 

Read the full post here, but essentially he "won" a $10 voucher from a grocery store on the same day as he lost $750 playing (I assume) video poker, and upon returning home, told his wife that he "felt great about that $10 win while the $750 loss immediately afterwards didn’t bother me at all."

His wife's bemused reply was “Your thinking is so messed up!”

I can certainly identify with Bob's thought process here. Some 'losses' are good, or at least healthy and simply part of the natural order of things. A four figure decline in the value of a stock index fund - not a rare occurrence if you have £100,000 or more invested - doesn't feel anywhere near as bad as a far smaller loss that was unexpected (dropping your iPhone and needing a new screen for example!) 

Live, Maybe

In the early days of my second coming as a bettor, having accidentally discovered the betting exchange concept, I found a football (soccer) game that had recently finished, yet Betfair still had it as starting in a few minutes at the original kick off time. I forget the reason why the kick off had been brought forward by a couple of hours at short notice, but I do recall that it was an MLS game and it may have been moved due to the threat of inclement weather, which there can mean death and destruction rather than the UK version of inclement weather which means the rain will be slightly heavier than usual. 

As it was in the early days of being a born again bettor, my account balance at that time wasn't much more than my initial deposit of £98.50, it may even have been a little less, and aware of the popular maxim that if something looks too good to be true, it probably is, my investment was sadly rather modest. In fact I fully expected the bets to be voided, but they never were, and my balance received, in percentage terms at least, a welcome boost.

I was reminded of this anecdote by a story that broke yesterday. I'm personally not interested in betting on mixed martial arts (MMA) events, especially involving little known fighters or organisations which for me included the "Professional Fighters League Challenger Series", but apparently last Friday both fuboTV and the PFL were promoting live fights taking place that same evening:

The only problem was that the fights had been pre-recorded a week earlier and perhaps not at all surprisingly, "suspicious betting activity" was reported. The full story and fall out as reported by ESPN is here. 

As expected, both the Leeds United v Southampton and Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa games were "official" qualifiers for the EPL Draw System with the former a winner taking the ROI for the season to 17.6%. Both matches kicked-off at the published time, in case you were wondering.

Tonight's Burnley v Everton "Original 12" relegation six-pointer is also a match that looks likely to be a qualifier.  

The NBA Overs have started April strongly with a 10-4 record excluding last night, for which 10 of the 12 matches were qualifiers. Some of you may have noticed that the number of games meeting the criteria have increase quite dramatically during the season, rising from a mere 30 in December, to 78 in January, 82 in a short February, 139 in March and after five days of April, already 24 games. This is because teams are quickly adjusting to the new rules, and the average Total has moved from 215.2 in November to 226.2 in March. The regular season ends on Sunday.

The College basketball season ended on Monday night with Kansas just failing to cover the 4.5 points they were giving to North Carolina, who led by 15 points at half-time. I had the latter to cover and was feeling rather comfortable at the break, but Kansas came back, led by three with a few seconds left and had possession. With North Carolina having to foul, my bet wasn't looking good, but I caught a lucky break with the Kansas player stepping on the line by about a millimeter and North Carolina gained possession missing their Hail Mary at the end. A little early perhaps, but watch out for my Arkansas Razorbacks next season, just 219 days away apparently! 

Slightly closer is the start of baseball which starts tomorrow (Thursday). There's a new name to get used to with the Cleveland franchise becoming the Guardians (formerly Indians) and a few new rules to check out before investing too much. The Designated Hitter Rule will be in effect in both Leagues, and the extra inning rule of starting a runner on second has been restored after earlier reports that it would be discontinued. 

The Los Angeles Dodgers are favourites to win the World Series. 

But Weight, There's More

Oh, to be in England, now that April's there

After a couple of negative months to start the year, March turned things around more than enough to make the first quarter a positive one. A negative quarter is a rare event with just five in the 45 since 2010, the most recent being the pandemic driven flash crash of Q1 2020, but while this one will go down in the books in green, the gains were driven by a few stocks rather than the broader market. I have six figure holdings in two companies, one is my employer, the other being Tesla, and both are now positive on the year after early struggles. A stock split is being discussed for Tesla which may in part explain the recent climb in price. 

Berkshire Hathaway also had a huge Q1 up 18% so far this year and while my property equity is also up, with valuations not always particularly accurate and the asset highly illiquid, I only use a percentage in my numbers. It also helps that I get my annual bonus in the first quarter which reduces the chances of a red in this quarter and all-time March was the 4th best in actual money and the 15th best (since 2010) in percentage terms. 

My sports betting was rather quiet this month. I was travelling for business early in the month, and the EPL Draw System is never good in March anyway as I wrote in January. The ROI on "Close" games in March prior to this year was -15.4%, a number that has declined still further after seven straight losses to -19.7%. 

Fortunately, results typically improve in April and as so often happens with these things, the calendar turns over to a new page and we immediately have a provisional winner with the Leeds United v Southampton game finishing 1:1. I need to wait for Football Data's 'official' Pinnacle closing prices before including this one. I was also on the Draw in the Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa game, but this game finished 2:1. 

Here is the breakdown by month as of March 31st as we enter the final few weeks of the season:

Backing the Away teams in the UEFA club competitions was again profitable, but the NBA Overs System had a poor month with a 65-72-2 losing record, but still a 53.5% winning record since I mentioned this in late January. There are only 10 days remaining of the regular season so this should be another profitable season.

Regular readers will not be surprised to know that along with keeping a record of my financial standing, updated pretty much every day, I also track my diet and exercise numbers.

A little over 18 months ago I purchased an Ōura ring, which tracks your sleep and measures the calories you burn as you go about your daily business. I'm never too sure how accurate these things are, but it seems to be producing some pretty reliable data. I believe Apple's Fitbit does a similar thing to the ring, but I've not used it. 

When I exercise, I usually track it using a Runkeeper app or similar, but these invariably overestimate the calories burned, which somewhat balances out the lack of calorie counting for the rest of the day but on some days I'm lazy or the weather is inclement and don't exercise at all. 

Anyway, with the Ōura ring estimating my calories burned (Kcal Ex) and my diligently tracking calories ingested - not always perfect, but reasonably close - I've been able to see how closely correlated my net calorie intake is with my weight changes each month.

The table below is sorted by Net Cals (daily) with a clear pattern emerging. 1500 or fewer net calories a day and my weight goes down; 1900 or greater, and it goes up. Ignoring the calorie burn, simply ingesting fewer than 2200 calories will see a drop in weight, but the correlation with weight lost is closer when using the Net Calories.

The bottom line appears to be that while exercise helps, weight loss or weight management is mostly about how many calories you consume. Perhaps no big surprise, although the minimal impact of exercise is maybe slightly unexpected. 

While I wouldn't call myself a vegetarian, I do consume very little red meat these days and I also do almost everything I can to avoid sugar.  

The "AUs" column is Alcohol Units and unfortunately (from a health perspective) I quite enjoy the social side of drinking. While I never drink at home - my wife isn't a drinker - I do tend to cram my drinking sessions into one or two days a week rather than spread it out over the week and yes, March just gone wasn't great due in large part to a significant birthday. No judging me please! 

Going 'dry' for the month and there's always a double digit weight loss (weight is in pounds by the way), but those months are usually ones where I'm fastidious about exercising too, unless I'm laid up in bed with a broken leg as was the case for the whole of February 2021.

Regarding exercise, I have a goal this year to covering 1,200 miles on foot. Last year I managed 1,050 with ten weeks lost because of the broken leg, and the usual target of 1,000 miles seemed too low. With 525 miles completed in the first quarter this year, 2,000 miles looks a little soft for a goal. 

The blue months are those from October to March and appear to be better than the 'summer' months, in part due to my habit of sometimes doing 'Dry January' and 'Sober October', although apparently not in October 2020.

Anyway, a little off topic with this and I promise not to update this too often, but I did find the correlation between weight, calories and exercise to be interesting.  

VAR - Victories Away Rising

TipTap commented on my recent VAR - Veritable Away Results post:

You say that VAR has removed some of the Home advantage - does this apply to league football as well? is there evidence for this? Although given it started 2017ish, then we had Covid and empty stadiums, may not be enough comparable data yet?

What data we have is pretty clear on the impact of VAR and of reduced attendances due to COVID. Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP), a firm of financial consultants based in the City of London, produced a report in December 2020 with the title "COVID-19 and VAR decimate 'home advantage' in football leagues across Europe".

LCP’s Football Analytics team who have developed TransferLab, an online football data scouting tool, have analysed results of football games across the big five European Leagues (the English Premier League, French Ligue 1, Germany’s Bundesliga, Italy’s Serie A and Spain’s La Liga), looking back over the past 6 seasons for comparative data.

The data shows that, while the introduction of the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) between 2017 and 2019 (depending on the league) reduced home advantage across Europe by around 14%, the remaining home advantage largely disappeared after there were no fans in the stadium following the pandemic.

For the first time in history, the top flight in English football saw more Away wins than home in 2020-21, and other top flight leagues to have their lowest ever home win percentage last season were France, Scotland, Germany, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. Portugal's lowest was in 2019-20, with 2020-21 not far behind. The EPL this season currently is the second worst ever for Home sides winning just 41.3% of games. 

Declining Home Advantage was already a trend I have written about before. In 123 seasons of top flight football in England, only nine times have Away wins exceeded 30%. The table below shows how many of those are recent with 1946-47 an outlier likely due to being the first season after the disruption of the Second World War:

VAR was introduced in the EPL for 2019-20, a season impacted by COVID in March of course, so there's an overlap for two seasons with the pandemic and restricted attendances, but the data so far seems to back up the logical rationale that Home advantage is reduced by goal-line technology and VAR. I'm sure there will be more on this in published studies as time goes on, but as investors we don't have the luxury of waiting for mathematical proof, since paradoxically by then the edge will no longer be there. 

If you had backed the Away in all EPL matches since the introduction of VAR, your ROI would be 9.4% (from 1048 matches) compared with -8.8% for the previous 19 seasons. 

Pizza Without Cheese

This blog now enters its 15th year, with this post being #2887. Four comments are required to hit the 4,000 mark, although I've probably deleted several thousand spammy ones over the years and the 2,687,154 all-time hits means the monthly average is, albeit completely meaningless, a little under 15k.

I say meaningless because this blog is essentially a personal diary - a record of ideas and thoughts over the years, some of which have served me well and some of which were perhaps rather naïve - but if some of my ideas over the years have improved your decisions in some way, that's satisfying to know.

Inspired by an article at Teslarati.com which claimed, with somewhat dubious logic, that by 2024, Elon Musk "could become the first person to ever accumulate a $1 trillion net worth" I took a look using similarly dubious logic at how long it might be before I might reach billionaire status, and while the bad news is it's a lot later than 2024, the good news is that it's a lot sooner than I intuitively thought it might be. By the end of December 2054 when I will be just 97, I "could" reach this milestone.

Unfortunately the calculations assume that my net worth will grow at the same rate has it has since 1992 (18.7417% annually in case you were wondering) which isn't going to happen, but this pointless exercise is a great illustration of the power of compounding. If spreadsheets had existed in my youth, some of my financial decisions would have been a lot smarter.

I find it quite fascinating and inspiring that Warren Buffett had a net worth of $1m when he was 30, and is worth $117b today, with 99% of that being earned after his 50th birthday. 

The secret to getting rich is to start investing early and live for a long time! 

The UEFA World Cup Qualifiers this week looked like the type of matches where the Draw might be value. In 2017 the eight matches produced four Draws and a 7.24 unit profit, but these were two-leg affairs and results from previous years weren't too promising. Two matches saw the home side as a big favourite but the other two generated one winner with the Sweden v Czech Republic game requiring extra-time. As a Cassini, it's most unfortunate that Italy miss out on a second successive World Cup. A World Cup without Italy is like a pizza with no cheese, as someone described it. 

No EPL Draw selections last week with arguably England's Big 4 all winning their quarter-finals and making it to a top quality FA Cup Semi-Final line up and no action this week either because of the International break. 

VAR - Veritable Away Results

In both the last post, and again last month, I touched on the topic of European club matches, and the differences between First and Second Leg games, and some of you may have noticed that over the last five seasons, backing the Away team in the Second Leg has been very lucrative, with an ROI of 33% from 186 matches.

Since 2004, following this unsophisticated strategy would not surprisingly have lost you 3%, so the recent profitability is interesting, and may be due in part to the introduction of VAR which removes some of the Home advantage.  

In 41 games where the First Leg was a Draw, the ROI over this time (past five seasons) has been 124%, with the score of the Draw not a factor. There is one game tonight in the Europa League that meets this criterion, and one in the new Europa Conference League where VAR is not being used. This match is also the first in spreadsheet history to follow a 4:4 draw.

In the NBA, my advice from January to back Overs on totals greater than 223 continues to be profitable, with a 95-69-1 record from February, an ROI of 13%. These numbers are provisional from GimmetheDog since Killer Sports seems to have a bug on the query. 

Moving The Goalposts

With a couple of big anniversaries coming up later this month, I took a look back at March 2008 when I started this blog on the eve of my 51st birthday. Those of you with an aptitude for numbers, which is hopefully all of you, will realise that this means I am now on the verge of 65, an age which used to mean being an "old age pensioner" and it's little comfort that I technically still have another year before achieving that milestone in life.

I've mentioned retirement more than once in this blog, and in fact 14 years ago, back in March 2008 when I set up this blog I wrote in my profile:

I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.

"Bringing that day forward" hasn't yet happened, although since I never specified a date I was looking to bring forward, maybe there's still a chance I can claim to have achieved this goal. Of course, what happens in life is that the goalposts keep moving.

While we may think that when we achieve a certain net worth, we will retire, maybe travel for a while and live happily ever after, the reality is that if we are fortunate enough to hit that number, we realise it's not the finishing line we thought it was, and we set our sights on a new one.

Personal circumstances are defined by Collins as "the conditions of your life, especially the amount of money that you have" and as the term suggests, they are not the same for everyone. For myself, I'm fortunate in that I can now stop working anytime I choose, but for now I'm in good health and being paid silly money for the amount of work I do, and with travel placed on hold for the past two years I'm quite happy to carry on "working".

I am, however, well aware of the saying that "life is what happens when you're busy making plans" - and no, it wasn't John Lennon who originally came up with that insightful quote, dating back as it does to at least 1957 which I might add, was a vintage year. 

A couple of years ago I did mention the subject of possible retirement to a former boss, who remarked that I shouldn't retire FROM something, but TO something. That was good advice, and with a pandemic arriving shortly after that conversation, I'm glad I held off on pulling that trigger since travel would have been seriously restricted. 

Before I get to the betting updates, a couple of observations about that first blog post almost 14 years ago. The first is that my very first comment was from the inspirational Graeme Dand who wrote:

I have no idea whether this Tiger guy won or lost, or indeed whether Graeme ever did spend more time on golf, but a Tiger Woods finished the Masters that year as runner-up to Trevor Immelman. When I first started tracking my sports investing in 2006, Golf was actually my top sport that first year but by the time I started the blog, MLB and NBA had taken over.

As many of you know, Graeme is currently dealing with more important issues than sports betting, and I encourage you to follow him on Twitter even if you don't care about horse-racing as much as Graeme does, which is a lot. 

It was looking like the MLB season might be shortened this year but the dispute between players and owners was resolved last week with a full 162 game season in tact, albeit starting a week later than originally scheduled. 

Unfortunately with the Killer Sports MLB page currently not working, my participation may be somewhat limited, but if you are playing, note that the National League will be adopting the Designated Hitter rule, extra innings will no longer start with a runner on second, and doubleheader games will be the full nine innings.   

After a few days away travelling for work, I thought I'd wait for this weekend's EPL games to complete before updating the numbers, and as I cautioned back in January, finding Draws in March is historically very tough, and this season appears to be following the same pattern with March nothing short of a disaster!  

If you took heed and lowered your stakes, well done. If you lowered them to zero, well done indeed. It was a fortuitous time to have a work trip. Why is the first quarter of a year so bad? Logically it does make sense that with teams playing each other for a second time, the market should be more efficient, but the consistent drop off over 22 years is still surprising. 

In European competition, in Second Leg matches where the Home team has more than a one goal lead from the First Leg the value historically is on the Away team, and neither Liverpool (v Internazionale) or Manchester City (v Sporting) won their Second Leg matches from this position last week, although City were able to Draw. 

There is also an edge on the Away team when the First Leg was a Draw, (10.25% ROI from 219 matches), but Bayern Munich were 1.19 to beat Salzburg and the edge isn't there on matches with a hot favourite. 

Heartless

I had the thought on Thursday morning that anti-Russian, more specifically anti-Putin, sentiment might be a factor in the markets for the League Cup Final with casual punters showing their outrage by throwing their money behind Liverpool as a proxy for Ukraine against "aggressor" Chelsea, owned of course by Roman Abramovich, a close ally of Putin's. 

Whether or not this was part of the reason that Chelsea and the Draw drifted during the 72 hours before kick-off is impossible to say for sure, but it's an example of how there is sometimes an edge to be gained from unlikely places. 

The average prices via Odds Portal went from 2.32 to 2.19 for Liverpool, 3.21 to 3.37 for the Draw, and 3.4 to 3.57 for Chelsea. 

As I wrote in my last post, the Draw is where the value exists in Finals with no club having a fair win probability greater than 0.5, and the Draw opened at 3.16 on Pinnacle, drifting to 3.39 by game time, but as is usually the case, a much more tempting 3.6 was available on Betfair which seemed very generous given the history of this fixture and domestic finals in general.

A perfect draw ensued, taking the ROI on Draws in all 18 League Cup Finals since 2005 to 50%. Of the five Finals with no odds-on favourite, four have finished level but that's too few matches for the ROI to be meaningful.

Of the 18 finals, ten have been all-Big-6 matchups with, yes you guessed it, six results being Draws with the favourite winning the other four. 

With no selections in the EPL for the second consecutive weekend - the Brentford v Newcastle United game slipped out of contention - at least one reader made some money from Draws this weekend, and hopefully quite a few more of you.  

I've previously written about how the second half of the season isn't as lucrative as the first, and with 256 games played, we're entering into the time of year (particularly weeks 26-31) when the system really struggles:

I'm travelling again for work this week, so there will be no month-end updates, or any updates for that matter for a while. As things stand, February could go either way with the major index Futures currently down around 2% and the Cassini portfolio clinging on to a small monthly gain, a position I didn't expect to be in when the attack on Ukraine began, but the stock market is heartless, as the linked-to article explains. 

War and Draw

Obviously, there are far more important things going on in the world this week than investing, but the reality is that life for most of us will go on pretty much as usual. 

The final of UEFA's Champions League has, not surprisingly, been moved from St Petersburg to Paris and it's crazy to think that the host nation of the 2018 World Cup is currently attacking the country and city that staged the Euro 2012 Final. 

Russia and Ukraine are both in the play-offs for a place in the World Cup Finals this year, but following yesterday's UEFA meeting, clubs sides from both countries will be required to play their home matches at neutral venues. FIFA meet this weekend to decide on the fate of the national teams. Should they both qualify, FIFA's draw for the Finals could be a little complicated.

As I wrote last week, it was a quiet weekend for betting with no EPL game coming close to being a Draw selection, and of the ten matches played, just one - West Ham United v Newcastle United - finished level. 

Midweek saw one "Close" selection which was Watford v this season's Draw specialists Crystal Palace, but for the first time in six games, Palace were unable to provide followers with a Draw, though at least one person was happy about that. The ROI for "Close" matches drops to 33.9% on the season.  

There should be a selection tomorrow with the Brentford v Newcastle United game currently a qualifier, and Brighton and Hove Albion v Aston Villa one to monitor.

UEFA's club competitions continued this week and the success of Away teams in the second leg of all-square ties continued with both Red Bull Leipzig and Barcelona winning. 

The conventional wisdom is that following an Away draw in the First Leg, the Home team will finish the job in the Second Leg. Of the 218 matches since 2004 where I have prices, 116 were won by the Home side, which is just 53%. Away teams win about 26% of the time, (27% following a 0:0, 25% following a score draw), but the value is on the Away team with an ROI of 11%.

As you might suspect, there is also value backing Away teams who had a comfortable Home win in the First Leg. It appears that Home sides facing an uphill battle give up a little easier than the market estimates.

This Sunday sees the League Cup Final in England, with Liverpool favourites to beat Chelsea. Of the 17 finals for which I have prices, the favourite has won 10 with 6 Draws, and backing the Draw has an ROI of 39% from this small sample. The edge is even greater when no club has a win probability greater than 0.5 (at fair odds), as is the situation for this game.

If we include FA Cup Finals, 5 of 11 matches meeting this rule have finished as Draws.

Finally, in the NBA, the All-Star game on Sunday saw a total of 323 points, which was right around where the books had the total. The record points total in these exhibitions remains the 374 points scored in 2017. Team Lebron won the game by three, just failing to cover the -5.5 points they were giving, but this isn't my kind of event for investing.