Mark's next comment was way off base, trying to make his point with an example: "if you were winning a Grand Prix by 30 secs, would you go into each corner on the final lap at full throttle?"
Well, most of you will spot the problem with this statement immediately, and I responded with "False analogy. There is no bonus in winning a GP by 1 second or 1hr, but a big difference between wins of 1p or one of £1k."
Similarly, the argument that "It's like saying Alex Ferguson always tells his team to try and score a goal" is irrelevant. A win in football means three points, or moving into the next round. It is rare that the margin of victory makes much difference, and teams play accordingly.
Mark added: The point of the analogy was that when you're well ahead why risk the wheel falling off?
Because unlike in motor racing where it makes sense to win as safely as possible, in betting - as in time trials - the idea is to do the best you can. The idea is to maximise your wins. Make hay while the sun shines.
Mark claimed that "It's all about what type of variance you're comfortable with. Everyone has different comfort levels" - but the fact is that this debate was nothing to do with variance - it was all about acting differently on the 25th of a month to the 1st of a month.
Matt of punt.com fame joined in, on my side of course, or I wouldn't have mentioned it, pointing out that
"the date is meaningless imo. If you need target, try retirement day, otherwise, date is just a random point. The sporting calendar has peaks and troughs..timeline of betting decisions should be linear. Picking a point on a very long line, pointless."
Exactly. Forget the date, forget daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual targets. They lead to poor decision making - betting at poor value and chasing. Value is value whether it is there on a Monday morning on New Year's Day or a Sunday night on New Year's Eve. Keeping records is essential, but allowing your betting decisions to be influenced by the date or time is not taking a professional approach, although I appreciate that, as Yogi Berra said:
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is".