Saturday, 13 September 2014
With one exception, the number of selections, per entry, per round, is somewhere around 6.5. While I was hoping that most entrants would be cognizant of the fact that administering each selection takes time, and voluntarily restrict their entries to a few where they had identified value, I received 94 entries from one person for this weekend (81 in one entry, 13 in the other).
Not only is this a huge number, but many of the selections were Lays at higher (odds-against) prices, i.e. matches with a high win probability, which means a large number of bets where I have to enter the price into my spreadsheet and note the profit. Not a big deal for the odd one or two lays, but it gets old fast ploughing through 40 plus.
This is a huge amount of work of course, and with 35 FTL entries I clearly can’t commit to this effort every week. Even at an average of 10 minutes per entry per week, that’s close to six hours in total. This is something I do in my spare time, but I do have a full-time job and would like to keep my wife, so six hours is already at the top end.
Since it's my own fault for not having specified an upper limit, I'll deal with it this time, but as self-appointed commissioner of the FTL league, I am going to have to exercise my executive commissioner powers and limit the number of selections per entry per round of matches.
I actually removed about the same about as I sent you because the edge was too smallGood heavens - there's a lot of value floating around this weekend! The other point that this strategy has raised is that the formula for adjusting prices to accommodate lay bets isn't sufficient in some markets. The rather naive assumption on my part was that lays would be mostly at odds-on and shorter odds-against, but the fixed formula needs to be changed so that higher lays (2.5+) are being made into a market that mirrors that for back bets.
Friday, 12 September 2014
TFA Graeme wrote a long piece (when does he ever not?) about this in his email to subscribers, and mentioned a few options for accessing the likes of Pinnacle Sports and SBOBET, notable the use of bet brokers or using an account registered overseas, such as the ROI (Republic of Ireland). For the top leagues, liquidity on the exchanges makes these a viable option if you are not paying the Premium Charge, and the low ROI (Return on Investment) on football bets makes it a useful way of generating commission and delaying the onset of Premium Charges.
As for the FTL, nothing changes. Joseph Buchdahl of Football Data has confirmed that he will still be collecting Pinnacle’s prices even if he appears to be unable to mention their name:
Speaking of Graeme, I mentioned yesterday that he had opened his FTL account with two draw selections both ending 1:0, but that was my mistake. I am not familiar with Graeme's numerous systems, and when he said his draws would be D1-D6 and I saw selections in D1, I got rather excited.
Turns out that D1 is not automatically in D1-D6 but that D1-D6 is its own entity. I think I've got it now, and Graeme's slate has been wiped clean. He is definitely in action this weekend though, and I hope no one in profit went out and spent the £25 bounty. Daily 25 is also making his debut, and Football Investor may be in-play.
Thursday, 11 September 2014
With a round of Conference games this midweek, a few tipsters were in action, with varying degrees of success. BettingTools.co.uk extended his lead at the top, and his share of the prize money while Club Havana and Mortimer trimmed their deficits. TFA_Raz trimmed his profits slightly, which was not the intention I'm sure, and TFA Draws made its much anticipated debut, but both selections finished as 1:0 results.
Frankly, I couldn't care less about the mythical average guy who has no information, and apparently no time to search for it eitherI keep forgetting that Emp is so much better than average. I'm not sure who has no information in this information age, but it certainly doesn't take much time to search for investment advice. Go to Google and type in "Green All Over"...
What you may be missing, is that by definition, the average guy can never do well. There just isn't room in the markets for any but a tiny minority to profit.Yes, you see this in the harbour when the tide comes in. Those multi-mullion pound yachts just float so much higher than the average ones. Investors in the S&P 500 last year had a torrid time, only making 32%. My heart goes out to the huge minority who did so poorly.
If hypothetically, everyone jumped into index funds as you advised, the stocks in said index would necessarily become over-valued (because people buy them just because they are in the index)."Said index"? Yes, there is only one index in the world markets, and everyone is piling in to it. The stocks in "said index" are indeed becoming over-valued. Perhaps Emp missed the part about diversification?
Plenty of people can and have predicted and benefited colossally from market turns.And plenty of people have predicted the second coming and the end of the world. If you have a steady stream of experts predicting an upturn or a downturn, of course someone will appear to have made a great prediction after the fact, but it's the way of the world that all the other incorrect predictions they have made are overlooked, and that too much weight is given to a lucky guess:
“The data is clear, 50% unemployment, a 90% stock market drop, and 100% annual inflation . . starting in 2012.”
That catastrophic outlook comes from Robert Wiedemer, economist and author of The New York Times best-seller Aftershock. Before you dismiss Wiedemer’s claims, consider this: In 2006 he accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States.Oops. Consider this: Someone missed out on some massive returns last year.
Of course there will be a crash, and of course there will be a recovery - at some time - (it's how economies work) but anyone who claims to be able to accurately predict them (date and duration) is either wealthy beyond imagination (The Sultan?) or dishonest, delusional or both (The Sultan!).
Wednesday, 10 September 2014
Matthew's is worth a read, and is in full below, discussing the vast array of funds and investment choices we are faced with, and this important point caught my eye:
As you rightly say there is not just one index but if an investor currently holds a FTSE All Share tracker and a Russell 2000 small cap tracker and he is currently beating the performance of the actively managed funds benchmarked against the performance of the same indices he should not necessarily sit back and think that he has maximised the return on his capital.It reminded me of the early success of the XX Draws. It was only when the overall number of drawn matches declined precipitously last season that I was forced to look at the underlying numbers and ultimately take consolation from the fact that, although down on the season, the results were still better than a vanilla benchmark of draws. Simply winning or making profits isn't the be all and end all of betting or investing as Matthew correctly points out. There's often room for improvement and in betting, markets can change in a hurry.
Here is Matthew's comment in full:
Grazie Saggio Cassini,
Once again you provide a thorough and enjoyable analysis. Looking at it again I am rather comparing apples with oranges. I think my main intent was to compare different methods of allocating savings for the retail investor for long term prosperity. When you are making decisions regarding your pension, stocks and shares NISA or SIPP you are often faced with a bewildering array of funds and of every conceivable strategy. Income funds are invariably included in your pension prospectus and yet the description seems incongruous with the concept of allocating money with which you are unable to touch till you retire.
Ultimately we want to make the most money possible and if it comes from a DRIP income fund or from a passive managed index tracker is of little consequence. I am a huge fan of the low cost index trackers but simply question whether sometimes an attempt to separate the best of breed from a large index via yield evaluation might beat the returns of the tracker for the self same index. Obviously it would have to beat the additional management fees to make the exercise worthwhile.
So can a DRIP income style fund outperform an index tracker fund from an ROC perspective over the longterm? They are both called upon to perform the same role if you agree with the fund prospectus from your pension, NISA or SIPP IFA advisor. As you rightly say there is not just one index but if an investor currently holds a FTSE All Share tracker and a Russell 2000 small cap tracker and he is currently beating the performance of the actively managed funds benchmarked against the performance of the same indices he should not necessarily sit back and think that he has maximised the return on his capital.
Those who have purchased your draw selections and Graeme's TFA selections are investing in football bets but generated from different strategies. Much as they would love to simply compare your selections to other draw backing strategies and Graeme's 7-22 to other H/A backing strategies I am sure they are looking at the ROC of both and wondering which deserves the finite capital more. Of course there could just be a desire for diversification.
I feel I have rather gone off track now. As for re-allocation if one was to try and execute an income style fund strategy oneself there are of course timing issues regarding the buying and selling stock but they are certainly navigable by the retail investor. Finally a note on my education and knowledge as a financial trader. My education simply taught me to always read more, any institution that gets this message across has in my view done well by its students and it does not matter what name is on the building. As for my knowledge on financial trading I am sure I can find the back of a small envelope to put down all I know to pass on to you.Somehow I suspect the envelope will be on the large side, stuffed with reams of A4 paper, all covered with Matthew's knowledge.
I think the assumption that we are all trying to maximize our returns should perhaps be challenged. Plenty of people, including the two people living in the house where I was born many moons ago, have quite happily gone through life happy to ‘invest’ (I use the term loosely) in bank deposit and building society accounts. I’ve mentioned before that my maternal grandfather was a stockbroker, which makes my parents’ aversion to the stock market (“too risky”) all the harder to understand, but my Mum thinks being a day late returning a library book is living on the edge. While the high interest rates of previous years (15% my Mum mentioned just a couple of days ago, as she bemoaned the meagre returns of today) has seen their savings over 50 years increase hugely, (the power of compound interest) they seem blissfully unaware, or at least don’t care, that had they invested more wisely, they might now be as comfortable as the Sultan. Their low risk tolerance meant that the higher returns associated with the volatility of the stock market were not worth the stress to them. I try not to dwell too much their poor decisions over the years have cost to me in my forthcoming inheritance.
In general, as retirement nears, one should move out of stocks into less volatile investment, but my parents being totally out of stocks for their entire lives (save for a few gifts from the likes of the Halifax and Woolwich) is taking this to an extreme. Maximising returns usually takes second place to protecting capital at some point in our lives, but not usually from the day we’re born.
Another point is that we can all get a little too hung up on stressing over maximizing our returns. Perfect is the enemy of good, and there is much to be said for keeping life simple.
And now to Emp, and it may well be a ‘lost-in-translation’ thing, and given that just one person seems to be missing the point, it probably is, but one of the key things Emp / Prabhat is missing is what we mean by the “man-in-the-street” or Mr Average in the context of this debate.
It may sound harsh, but the average person is not a sophisticated investor, he has little understanding of investment choices, and he simply doesn’t have the tools to identify the 1% of active managers who ‘might’ beat the market. He wants to save money for his future.
For this person, the advice to investing consistently in a diverse portfolio of low cost index tracking stocks is an excellent long-term strategy.
Emp waffles on about how theoretically it is possible to find an edge, and given time and a certain knowledge set that might well be true, but this is completely irrelevant for the vast majority of people.
Emp also feels that for some (he doesn’t explain why) reason actively managed funds might outperform index funds in a bear market. Some might, some might not, but again, he is off topic. We are not debating the merits of one versus the other in a short-term bull or bear market, but over the long-term. Next, Emp will be telling us he can predict market turns. Oh wait, here he is now:
“Embedded bullishness doesn’t do so grandly in a bear-market, and there’s certainly one coming in the next year or two”.You read it here first. Certainly? Well, no, not certainly. Quite possibly, but no one can successfully consistently predict market turns, except possibly Emp. “Next year or two” is a bit vague really. It almost sounds like he’s guessing. Come on Emp – surely you can share the market peak date with us. We’re like family. I think perhaps he meant to write "embedded bullshitness".
Although this is an interesting topic, and one that I shall likely remind readers of again in the not so distant future because it is important, especially for you younger readers, I’ve spent more than enough time for now on this.
I’ll leave you with the thoughts of Dilbert creator Scott Adams on the topic:
It's a Perfect Strategy for My Enemies
I can think of many cases in which I would recommend active money managers over index funds. For example, I might be giving the advice to someone I hate or—and this happens a lot—someone I expect to hate later. I would also recommend active money managers if I were accepting bribes to do so, if I were an active money manager myself, or if it were April Fools' Day. And let's also consider the possibility that I might be drunk, stupid or forced to say things at gunpoint. I've also heard good things about a German emotion called schadenfreude, so that could be a factor too.
Tuesday, 9 September 2014
I have been enjoying the dialogue between yourself and your avid blog readers regarding the prudence of index tracker investing. You will find one particularly vociferous group who will disagree with you regarding the peerless nature of this type of investing. The group being comprised of course by the acolytes of Neil Woodford. These bastions of middle England will take great pleasure in telling you how Mr Woodford's Invesco Perpetual Income fund under his tenure outperformed the FTSE All Share handsomely for 20 years.
This leads me to the question of how do you feel about the practice of dividend hunting portfolios with say a once a year reallocation and automatic dividend reinvestment? Is a diverse, high yield portfolio of large caps strictly managed able to squeeze more juice from the index tracking approach? Both methods will of course be often investing in similar companies effectively but with an added filter. This is something the amateur, thanks to discount brokers, can indulge in himself and costs are very manageable if you balance infrequently. These portfolios often contain the same faces year after year so balancing is not too arduous.
I look forward to hearing your thoughts on the matter.Based on his impressive education and a career background in financial trading, I suspect that Matthew knows far more than I do about these things, so my thoughts and opinions are very much from the man-in-the-street who accepts that others on the inside of the financial world will always know far more than he does about these things, and whose philosophy is thus to keep it simple - invest frequently and consistently in a number of diverse index funds, keeping costs to a minimum.
For those who have not read every single Green All Over post, and shame on you if you haven’t for it is an illuminating read, one of my best financial decisions was to start trading futures and options. It opened up a whole new world of investment possibilities, and I learned a great deal about trading and entry points and lot sizes and the like, but sadly it turned out that others in the world knew more about the price of pork bellies and orange juice than did I, which led to another excellent financial decision, which was to stop trading futures and options.
I dabbled a little in day-trading stocks part-time in the early 2000s but was always aware that however timely my information was, it wasn’t timely enough, and that professionals whose waking hours were spent studying, analysing and dissecting markets, sectors and individual companies would always know far more than me, and rather like trying to trade in court-sider infested markets today, if I can buy or sell at a certain price, it is because the insiders / experts are offering that price to me, and they are not offering me that price out of generosity to me.
In simple terms, stock mutual funds are typically for growth, for income, or a blend of the two. Growth mutual funds tend to focus on capital appreciation, i.e they buy stock in a company with the expectancy that the stock price will increase, while value or income based funds tend to invest in companies that pay dividends. Comparing an Income fund with an all-share index is not comparing like with like. The relevant comparison would be to compare Inveso Perpetual Income Fund with a benchmark for Income Funds.
The major indexes are based on the top companies listed in the relevant country’s stock exchange, for example the FTSE 100 is comprised of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock Exchange with the highest market capitalisation.
Similarly, the DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average) is made up of 30 companies, and the industrial is a relic from a bygone age, but the S&P 500 (made up of 500 leading companies trading on the US exchanges) is a better representation of the U.S. stock market, and for the US economy.
The question Matthew asks confuses me slightly, since there isn’t just one ("the") index to beat. Each mutual fund is of a certain type, and each have their own indexes against which they are compared.
Growth funds are measured against an index for growth funds, and an income fund against an income index, and again I would say that the man in the street is unlikely in the long-term, to consistently beat the appropriate index. The "dividend hunting portfolio" should be measured against a similar benchmark.
How one should allocate investment funds is dependent upon factors such as ones age and risk tolerance of course, but it’s not meaningful to compare an income portfolio approach with anything but an income index.
As for annual rebalancing / reallocating, this seems perfectly sensible, although I question the wisdom of rebalancing at the end of the calendar year when everyone else is doing the same. It seems to me that if you are tracking an index, and are light in one company for example, then others will be too, and if everyone goes chasing at the same time, the price you pay will be more than had you re-allocated earlier in the year. There’s a similar issue when a major Index drops a company and replaces it with another. Most Indexes make changes frequently; in June this year the FTSE 100 added 3i Group and dropped Melrose Industries and Intu Properties replaced (coincidentally, given the nature of this blog) our dear old friend William Hill.
I'm slightly puzzled, my comment explicitly stated that the average person (or fund) won't 'beat the market'. My point was that a) if someone wished to be excellent it's possible.Yes Prabhat, I have conceded that it is possible (to beat the market long-term), but it's highly unlikely and you have not offered any reason why my assertion, backed by mounting evidence, is not true. Not wishing to believe it isn't evidence. There's also the question of, not only transaction costs, but the cost of the time your cunning plan to beat the odds is going to take. One imagines that would be quite significant.
You keep saying the average person has no self control etc., and here we are on common ground. I agree entirely that the average person lacks discipline, self-control and other attributes necessary to succeed. My point was if someone has those attributes or wishes to cultivate them, they have options better than an index fund. For that matter, judging by track records you yourself (not to imply you are average) would have done better investing in your football selections than the market.What options are better than an index fund? That is the crux of the debate, which is not about comparing one investment type with another, (another day perhaps) but about having decided to invest in stocks, what is the best way to invest in them.
Marty chipped in:
When asked I always advise people to invest in low cost index funds and to drip feed investment, so I generally agree with Cassini's practice.
I disagree with this though:
"The S&P 500 last year (2013) was up 32.42% ... ask your friends from outside the financial world... not many would be close to that."
If they're holding US blue chips (a very common investment approach) then lots of them will likely have beaten the S&P, because they're holding the stocks the S&P is made up of and a fair proportion of stocks in that index will have outperformed the index.
"The Dow industrials DJIA, -0.15% rose 72.37 points, or 0.4%, to end at 16,576.66, its 52nd record close of the year. The blue chips ended 2013 with an annual rise of 26.5%, the largest since 1995."With 2014 2/3rds done, the S&P 500 is up a "mere" 8.4%, and I'm glad I looked at the Yahoo Finance page for that tidbit, because what do I find but yet another excellent and well-researched article that is most timely (you may feel that you have heard some of the common objections before):
I'm not going to make you wait for the punch line. Your single biggest investment mistake is owning any actively managed funds. That's where the fund manager, through stock picking and market timing, attempts to beat the returns of a designated benchmark, like the Standard & Poor's 500 index.
I started writing books and blogs about investing in 2006. At that time, only a very small minority of people invested in index funds. Jim Cramer was at the height of his popularity.
I struggled with different ways to communicate to investors that the only intelligent and responsible way to invest was to capture the returns of the global market. This meant investors should avoid stock picking, reject market timing and not engage in the fruitless attempt to pick the next "hot" mutual fund manager. The general reception to this message was about the same as you would expect watching a vegetarian lecture to a cattlemen's convention. The common objections were:
-- "I don't want to settle for 'average' returns."
-- "My broker and I can 'beat the market.'"
-- "I only invest in companies I know."
-- "I can beat the market using dividend-paying stocks."
-- "If you are right, that means everyone making predictions in the financial media is wrong."
Though these assertions may have surface appeal, none of them withstand scrutiny, despite the messages pushed by the mutual fund industry and much of the financial media. The passage of time has been accompanied by a seismic shift in investor attitudes. The dismal track record of actively managed funds has caused even leading proponents of active management to throw in the towel.
Morningstar describes itself as a leading provider of independent investment research. One of its best-known products is its star rating system, which rates mutual funds from one to five stars, based on how well they performed (after adjusting for risk and accounting for all sales charges in comparison with similar funds).
Although Morningstar has cautioned investors to make expense ratios (the management fees charged by mutual funds) a "primary test in fund selection," many investors ignore this advice and use star ratings instead. The mutual fund industry encourages this practice by touting the star ratings of its best-performing funds.
Given Morningstar's pre-eminent position as a provider of information about actively managed funds, it was startling to read the views of John Rekenthaler, the company's vice president of research. In his blog post, Rekenthaler reviewed net sales over the past 12 months for all exchange-traded funds, passive mutual funds and active mutual funds. He found 68 percent of those sales went to passive investment products. Rekenthaler concluded that passive investing is now the mainstream approach and that "active managers have become the periphery."
The message that actively managed funds typically do not add value to investors is resonating globally. A report issued by the Pensions Institute in June 2014, "New Evidence on Mutual Fund Performance: A Comparison of Alternative Bootstrap Methods," based at the Cass Business School of City University in London, reached some startling conclusions.
Researchers examined the returns of 516 stock funds based in the United Kingdom for the period from 1998 through 2008. They found only 1 percent of fund managers produced returns sufficient to cover trading and operating expenses.
In my prior experience, even this data may not dissuade many investors. They would tell me that, with the assistance of their broker, they had the ability to select and purchase that tiny percentage of outperforming actively managed funds. The report by the Pensions Institute dealt a death blow to this claim.
First, it found that prospectively identifying the minuscule number of outperforming fund managers is "incredibly hard."
Second, the report noted it takes 22 years of performance data to have a high degree of confidence that a fund manager's out-performance is a product of skill rather than luck.
Third, it found the tiny group of "star" fund managers able to generate superior performance in excess of operating and trading costs were the sole beneficiaries of their skill. They extracted "the whole of this superior performance for themselves via their fees, leaving nothing for investors."
Perhaps the cruelest cut was that researchers concluded the vast majority of under-performing fund managers were "genuinely unskilled," not simply unlucky. Here's the good news. It's disarmingly simple to avoid making this critical investment mistake. The first step is replacing your actively managed funds with low management fee, comparable stock and bond index funds, passively managed funds or ETFs.Note that the article references the Cass Business School of City University, London, and not the Prab Business School, which may be a stock-picker sponsored private organisation who are no doubt busy working on a rebuttal article to the growing body of evidence that, while it's nice to think you're above average, the chances are you're not, unless you're the Sultan. I suspect the finished, peer-reviewed, article will be a long time coming. Another comment may not be quite so long in the making, but I hope it has a little more substance that just saying "in theory, I can beat the casino" and then offering no evidence for how this dream might realistically be realised.
Monday, 8 September 2014
With fewer entries than usual due to the top leagues being on an International break, no Monday matches selected, and only four downloads from Football Data required to bring you the numbers, here they are a little earlier than usual: