One of my all-time favorite bloggers Cassini is back after a short break"One of"? Not sure what he means by that!
If you're somehow not familiar with Cassini, you're probably not interested in betting or trading, but you should know that he's one of the good guys in this chaotic betting world, along with the likes of Joseph Buchdahl, Peter Ling, Rowan Day, Greg Gordon and Stewboss, to mention some of the very few. As you can see, he also has a fine sense of humor, which is probably much more important to yours truly than to your average gambler, but I'm not your average gambler - and neither is Cassini if I may try and observe.That is some illustrious company there, except for Greg Gordon who (no offence intended) I had never heard of until just now! He must be quite wonderful.
And just like that, a quick Google search reveals that he was featured in The Guardian as far back as 2005 and longevity is a useful indicator of success, or very deep pockets!
Greg also wrote The Progambler Good Tipster Guide back in 2008 so it's a little embarrassing that the paths of such great writers have not previously crossed.
Due to aforementioned Granddad duties, I'm behind on my Draw updates this season, but Kankerganker (possibly not his real name) has some interesting observations that I'll address in more detail in a few more days (although I will not be going anywhere near Iranian football. It's nothing persianal, I just prefer my football (and my country) to be in the EU:
Recently found your blog, I really enjoy it and have been reading back a few months.
I am quite intrigued about the Draw4 system, as i am currently doing something similar, albeit in different leagues.
I have found 2nd best leagues to be quite generous with draws, and i'm currently tracking Ligue 2, Serie B, La Liga 2, Portugal Segunda and Championship draw for the season(and a few others).
In my records i have used the best closing odds between the bookies where i have an account(Pinnacle, bet365 and 5dimes), and the season to date results are as follows:
424 Games +79 units, +18% ROI with 4/5 leagues being in the green (Championship sits at -14%)
An extreme outlier is the Iranian Pro league, with about 50% draws this season, yielding 59% ROI after 56 games. Last season ended with about 35% draws.
What do you think about betting draws by league trends?
I'm looking to narrow down the amount of games to a more playable amount. Perhaps taking the 2-3 most drawing teams from the 5-6 most drawing leagues?
All in all i think draws hold great value, partly since they are so uncomfortable to bet.I've found that betting on Draws is a bit like sitting on a wooden chair. It's only uncomfortable if you stay there for 90 minutes! A brief stop and you're fine.