Betfair Forever

A poster on the Betfair forum wrote that "this {Betfair] is the ONLY betting exchange and forever will be so"

Nonsense. There's no doubt that Betfair are the dominant company in the Exchange betting business right now, but history is full of examples of companies who got 'too big for their boots' and ended up pale shadows of their former selves. It's not long ago that eBay seemed invincible in the online auction market but profits are now down as buyers and sellers are moving to Amazon in droves, and word spreads that the Amazon experience is better. The advent of Craigslist has also reduced eBay's business at the lower end of the market.

Betfair's position as market leader could similarly disappear very rapidly if, or more likely when, a viable competitor appears on the scene and once tipping point is reached, they will find themselves left high and dry. People have no choice right now but to live with the Premium Charge, the underhand introduction of cross-matching, and the Arcade but they have memories, and the goodwill in many cases is gone.

We Are Not Amused

To the surprise of many, Andy Murray lost in the semi-final today. At 1.35 pre-game, against an experienced player, this was never value. I layed off my pre-tournament back of Murray one round too early, but I'm not complaining. As I have said before, in-play tennis betting just isn't for me, but I seem to be making more pre-game or pre-tournament bets these days. The Queen will be disappointed though.

I was reading the forum before the game, and an astonishing number of people felt that 1.35 was huge value, and that Roddick had no chance in reply to someone who suggested 1.35 was a value lay. Good for the original poster. Funny how all the 'experts' go very quiet when they are shown to be wrong.

Speaking of value, the New York Yankees were 1.34 pre-game yesterday, in a game where the best team wins approximately 60% of their games over a season. Value? Not for me, and it made me a nice profit when the Yankees lost the game to the Seattle Mariners. Today they play the Toronto Blue Jays and pre-game were 1.54. Again, not value in my opinion. Currently the game is tied after four innings, and could go either way. I'm on the value side of this one whatever happens.

Manchester United have signed Michael Owen! Now there's a surprise. Not that he left Newcastle, but that Manchester United wanted him. A great player in his uninjured prime, but nothing special these days.

Another surprise transfer is Ron Artest's move to the Lakers. Although he and Kobe Bryant had their issues during the play-offs, I suspect that off-court there is a mutual respect and he should help the Lakers improve with his all-round game. Trevor Ariza moves the other way in the deal. The early signs are that Lakers are again worth a pre-season back, although the prices aren't firmed up yet on Betfair, and BETDAQ (where thes punts have to be made these days) haven't even bothered to put the market up yet.

Fortune And Misfortune Are Two Buckets In The Same Well

Thanks to Tommy Haas, Andy Roddick and Serena Williams my trading month is off to a good start even if my account remains in negative territory for the time being. It could well have been very nicely in profit, but value does not always mean big profits.

In a baseball game yesterday, I had made a big lay of the Texas Rangers at 1.05 in their game at home to the Los Angeles Angels. This is one of my strategies, and risking £125 to possibly win £2,500 is a strategy that works well in many sports. Anyway, to cut a long story short, the Angels ended up managing to tie the game in the ninth inning. Usually this leads to a big payday. Unfortunately, the market refused to budge by too much. In this scenario, I would expect the price on Texas to move out to 1.6 or so. They will still be favourites, with the bottom of the ninth still to come, but as outs are recorded, the price should move closer to 2.0. I backed back enough at 1.5 to ensure I was green-all-over, but was looking at just £50on Texas versus £2,000 on the Angels. With two outs recorded, it was looking good, but sadly Texas hit a home run to win the game. No regrets at not taking bad value though. My bet was value, and betting with value will continue to be profitable in the long run. The poor value backers got lucky this time, but luck runs out. It's just frustrating to be unable to fully cash in on a value bet. Winning £50 is ok, but one can't help but feel disappointed!

June Report

As of a month ago, June was my lowest performing month. Was. After a month where I could hardly do a thing wrong, I had my fourth best month ever. A very pleasant surprise, and June moves up to 8th spot as a result. The Lakers win in the NBA as predicted in October was a big part of this, but the Stanley Cup, NRL, Wimbledon, Volleyball, Baseball, Golf and women's basketball all contributed. The Premium Charge did not and it will get July off to a bad start in a few hours when they rob me again before I've made a penny.

I take back my comment about baseball liquidity being lower this year. It is still not half-way through the season and I have already made 83% of last season's entire total. Home 'big' teams lost 12 of the 26 matches since I started laying them, and if the percentages continue like that I will be very happy. Three of my teams have only played one game at home though - the Yankees, Red Sox and Cubs so smallish stakes for the moment. The Mets lost 5 of 8, and the Dodgers 3 of 5. Stand by for a News of the World exclusive - "I made £20 million laying the Mets, in July".

July is currently one of my worst months, and as I am planning to take advantage of the quiet time to take a few days of holiday soon, it'll probably continue to be just that. But all work and no play makes Cassini a dull boy - so he's been told. My choices are Kirkuk, the Gaza Strip, the Swat Valley or Costa Rica.

June was also a good month on the health and exercise front, with not a single drop of alcohol passing my lips, and a total of 20.2 miles was run as I shed a whopping 2.8lbs. I do love my stats.

Back To The Drawing Board

Now that my dream of becoming a multi-millionaire within a year by laying horses has been shattered, I am having to revert back to my original plan of achieving financial freedom slowly and steadily. How very boring. I can see why the News of the World thinks that a headline of "I made 20 million pounds in one year" is a little more eye-catching than "I made 1 million pounds over 20 years". Never mind that there's at least a chance that the latter headline would be close to the truth.

I read an interesting piece on Investopedia.com about the ages at which millionaires first of all find their dream job, and secondly actually make that first million. It quoted the billionaire investment guru Warren Buffett as saying "Money is a by-product of something I like to do very much". The article goes on to say that "Enjoying your work allows you to have the discipline to work hard at it every day. People who interact with money for a living, bankers for example, often love creating new deals and persuading others to complete a transaction. But finding your dream job may take time. The average millionaire doesn't find it until age 45, and tends to be 54 (on average) before becoming a millionaire. Author Dennis Kimbro (who wrote "Think And Grow Rich") found that millionaires tried an average of 17 ventures before they were successful. So, if you want to be rich, stop doing things you don't enjoy and do what you love. If you don't know what you love, try a few things and keep trying until you hit on the right thing".

That age of 45 just happens to be close to my age (47) when I discovered Betfair, something which I really do enjoy doing every day, which means that I should be achieving millionairedom within two or three more years. I think I may be slightly behind schedule.

Elliott Short Of A Few Brain Cells

I was going to write a post suggesting that the article in yesterday's 'News' of the World was perhaps not quite true (someone by the name of Elliott Short had supposedly won 20 million pounds in a year by laying horses) but Betfair have beaten me to it.

Betfair Customer Services 29 Jun 13:13
We have been contacted by several customers in relation to an article in Sunday’s News of the World. We would like to make it clear that Betfair was not asked to comment on, or validate any aspect of, the article ahead of publication.

Although we cannot comment on the activities of any specific customer, some facts which may be relevant to some of the claims made in the article include:

the biggest winner in the relevant Britain’s Got Talent market (Susan Boyle winner - Yes/No) won less than £3,000.

No Betfair customer won £1.5 million or anything even vaguely approaching that amount betting on the Champion Hurdle.

No Betfair customer won £500,000 or anything even vaguely approaching that amount laying Monsieur Chevalier at Royal Ascot

The figures shown in the account statement screenshot in the News Of the World do not reconcile to any Betfair account.

The monies present in a Betfair account are obviously no indicator of the sums won or lost on the account.

We would encourage customers to be wary of the claims of anyone purporting to have a profitable system or strategy.

We would encourage customers to retain a healthy degree of scepticism toward any claims made in the press which are not validated by Betfair.

Don't Mix Religion And Sport

The result of today's Confederations Cup was as expected, even if the manner of victory wasn't.

The USA actually looked half decent, and their second goal was very well taken. Brazil were the better team though, and the 1000-1 layer of the USA got away with one.

I do have one gripe though. Before the World Cup in South Africa next year, FIFA needs to get a grip on these simpletons being allowed to parade around in, or wave, tee shirts saying "I BELONG TO JESUS" or similar. They might as well wave banners saying "I'm a Mindless Wanker". It's absolutely infuriating and just as I believe that politics and sport shouldn't mix, neither should religion and sport. Religion and intelligence don't mix either!

Anyway, I was so discombobulated that I lumped a few hundred quid on Kenny Perry to win the Travelers Championship at 1.09 which is not a strategy I usually adopt although it looks like it will pay off.

Oh Lay, Oh Lay

Meltdown on the football forum after the last few minutes of the Confederations Cup semi-final between Spain and South Africa. I was getting a little nervous about my 0-0 lay, (which was down to 1.8), but on 73 minutes South Africa went ahead.

I should have then layed the Unders markets instead of sitting around feeling rather pleased with myself. Goals in the 88th, 89th and 90th minutes saw both Under 2.5 and 3.5 smashed. Approximately £14k had been backed on each. Also, the 2-2 score traded at 1000 for £6 - that will pay for a nice holiday for someone this summer. After 72 goalless minutes, I agree the chances of a final score of 2-2 were slim, but 1000 seems like a poor value lay. Backing at that price just doesn't suit my style though. I need a steady flow of winners rather than an occasional longhot.

Anyway, further evidence that there is no such thing as free money in football.

I can't see the final being as good as this one. The USA will be out of their depth, and I hope the 1000 USA backer has layed off. Cue a USA 1-0 win...

Murray In A Hurry

Andy Murray continued his run to the Gentlemen's Singles final with an easy win this evening, but my pre-tournament back at 4.2 hasn't exactly paid off yet, although I can lay at 4.1. I'll wait another round before deciding whether to lay off as planned or not.

I caught the Tommy Haas / Maric Cilic match which saw both players traded at 1.09. Nicked a few quid, and made some money on Gilles Simon who easily beat Victor Hanescu.

Since it's a quiet time of year for investing, I've been putting some time into developing my football ratings for next season. Betfair has some season long match bet markets, e.g. Chelsea v Liverpool, which would be interesting, or at least would be if the bets were available on BETDAQ.

As someone eloquently stated on the Betfair forum the other day

"When your account qualifies for the Premium Charge it becomes useless for everything apart from trading”

Why would you bet at £100 to win £300 on Betfair when you will actually win only £240, whereas with a traditional bookmaker, you could bet at 5-2 and win £250?

Indeed. There is a school of thought that these side bets help to offset the Premium Charge, but I don't go to that school any more. The problem is that whereas I will happily put four figures on an in-play NBA game when I have value, I can't bring myself to put anything like that amount on a pre-game punt where the 'value' is so much harder to find and any edge much smaller. So even if the punts net out at zero, the benefit to the Premium Charge is minimal since the commission is peanuts.

My lay the 'big' home team in baseball system continues to help the bottom line this month. The Mets, White Sox and Angels are all at 50%, with the other selections not playing more than one game each yet.